AL MVP Alphabet Soup

Dave Paisley

Having checked out the National League a few days ago, it's time to take a look at the leading candidates for American League MVP. Just in case you weren't paying attention, I'm essentially using the numbers that the traditional BBWAA voter uses: Triple Crown stats (i.e. batting average, home runs and RBI.) While they may not be the very best way to evaluate batters, they usually manage to sort out the good from the bad.

One correction I will make is that of park effects. Different baseball parks have different effects on scoring, and while it's difficult to pin down every nuance, I believe a three-year average is a reasonable way to capture the constant influences, and that's what I'm using here. It's critical in the NL because of the vast inflation of offense in Denver, as one of the leading candidates is Todd Helton. In the AL there isn't quite such a dramatic spread of park effects, but I'm applying the corrections all the same.

The following table shows numbers to date for the top ten contenders for AL MVP, corrected as noted above. What I did then was to allocate 100 points to the leader in each category, then allocate the appropriate fraction of those points to the other players. Thus, a player leading all three categories would have a maximum of 300 points.

Note that the first set of white columns is the raw data, with OPS for comparison. The middle set is the numbers adjusted for park factor, while the final columns show the points in each category and the total.

Name	Team	Avg	HR	RBI	OPS	Avg (adj)	HR (adj)	RBI (adj)	Avg Pts	HR pts	RBI pts	Total
C Delgado	Tor	.357	24	64	1.196	.362	26	65	91	100	87	279
E Martinez	Sea	.379	19	71	1.159	.397	18	74	100	72	100	272
C Everett	Bos	.329	22	63	1.087	.323	24	62	81	93	84	258
I Rodriguez	Tex	.376	22	60	1.137	.365	21	57	92	83	78	253
J Giambi	Oak	.320	20	65	1.110	.323	21	67	81	81	91	253
A Rodriguez	Sea	.344	18	61	1.086	.360	17	64	91	68	86	244
M Vaughn	Ana	.299	20	55	.942	.304	20	56	76	77	75	228
M Sweeney	KC	.351	14	66	1.001	.346	13	64	87	52	87	226
F Thomas	Chi	.322	16	55	1.019	.324	17	56	82	65	76	222
B Williams	NY	.300	13	61	.929	.306	14	65	77	54	87	218

* stats as of 6/18/00

The first thing to note is that Edgar Martinez of the Mariners leads in batting average and RBIs (adjusted or not) and Carlos Delgado leads in home runs. These two guys are quite a way ahead of the pack, as 20 points is a big gap in this rarefied territory. While some people might complain that Triple Crown stats aren't the best measure of player quality, these two guys also happen to lead the league in raw OPS, and I'm sure they'd also lead in esoteric stathead stats like Runs Created if I had bothered to calculate it.

The pack behind Martinez and Delgado is an interesting bunch. There's Carl Everett maintaining his breakout performance in Boston, reigning MVP Ivan Rodriguez still doing remarkably well, and Jason Giambi continuing his tear. Everett's strength in this scoring system is his home runs, Pudge's is his batting average, while Giambi benefits most from RBIs. Other than that, there's not much to differentiate them.

The only real differentiation so far is in defensive position, where Pudge is the only one of the top five in a demanding defensive role. Speaking of which, there's Alex Rodriguez lurking in sixth place. A couple more home runs and he'd be right with the other guys, and his defense is worth a few points too.

After that, we're into another bunch of musclebound 1B/DH sluggers like Mo Vaughn, Mark Sweeney and Frank Thomas, none of whom are exactly renowned for defense. Bringing up the rear is Bernie Williams, who suffers most in this company from a lack of home runs.

This is actually a pretty decent horse race. Right now I could see I-Rod and A-Rod getting serious consideration because of their defensive qualities as well as being able to keep up with this company. Interestingly enough, all but Mo Vaughn and Mark Sweeney have a decent shot at the playoffs. Right now I'd be tempted to pick Alex Rodriguez, mostly because of his being robbed in 1996, but I may also be a little biased. If I had to pick a non-Mariner, it would probably be Delgado.

At the other end of the scale, we have the everyday guys who have been anything but stellar -- the LVPs. As with the NL, this bunch of offensive underachievers is comprised mostly of middle infielders, but with Alex Rodriguez as an example, what's these guys' excuse?

Name	Team	Avg	HR	RBI	OPS	Avg (adj)	HR (adj)	RBI (adj)	Avg Pts	HR pts	RBI pts	Total
R Sanchez	KC	.235	1	15	.575	.232	1	15	58	4	20	82
M Cairo	TB	.272	0	15	.664	.273	0	15	69	0	20	89
M McLemore	Sea	.231	1	21	.643	.242	1	22	61	4	30	94
J Offerman	Bos	.244	3	16	.669	.239	3	16	60	13	21	94
C Febles	KC	.270	2	16	.705	.266	2	16	67	7	21	96
T O'Leary	Bos	.211	5	17	.620	.207	5	17	52	21	23	96
C Knoblauch	NYA	.286	3	10	.752	.292	3	11	74	12	14	100
D Bell	Sea	.221	3	22	.603	.231	3	23	58	11	31	101
C Koskie	Min	.281	1	21	.768	.278	1	21	70	4	28	102
D Cruz	Det	.267	2	20	.662	.267	2	20	67	8	27	102

Chief underachiever is tough to pick. Lowest guy on the totem pole is Rey Sanchez, but given expectations, perhaps the award should go to Troy O'Leary or Chuck Knoblauch. I'd love to hand the award to Chuck personally, but he'd probably try to lob it to Tino Martinez and end up throwing it into the stands, injuring a hot dog vendor.

about the author

Dave Paisley isn't one to brag, but he has the highest player-to-stat ratio since Bill James was in his prime. Ask what the hell Bill James was doing in Dave Paisley's prime at drdjp@strikethree.com.