AL Race to the Finish

Dave Paisley

As we approach the end of the first half of the season, I find it informative to look back to see how the front-runners have fared and to predict whether they'll be able to keep it up in the second half. As we all know scoring runs and preventing the other team from scoring them is a great way to win more games than you lose. Seems obvious, but I wonder about some fans. And managers.

The bottom line is that more offense and better pitching are the way to go. But that doesn't always translate directly to the bottom line. A lousy bullpen, a streaky, undependable offense and poor management can all waste opportunities to win.

First let's take a look at the AL East. I'll use Toronto to illustrate my cunning method. First, the W-L columns are wins and losses as of July 2, as are team ERA and OPS (On base Plus Slugging). Runs Scored and Allowed are self-explanatory and Run Difference is the difference between them (pretty tough, eh?) It's interesting to note that Toronto has been outscored, yet they are six games above .500. Hmmm. More on that later.

Wins Pythag is the number of wins predicted by the Pythagorean method (sse note at the bottom of this column). W-WP is the difference between actual wins and pythag predicted wins. A positive number indicates some kind of lucky anomaly, while a negative number generally indicates bad luck or some other more deterministic effect at work. Finally, Season Wins is the number of wins a team would have they finished the season at their Pythagorean win rate and added that to their current actual win total.

Team	W	L	ERA	OPS	Runs Scored	Runs Allowed	Run Difference	Wins Pythag	W-WP	Season Wins
Toronto	44	38	5.42	.818	452	473	-21	39	5	82
New York	40	36	4.54	.800	400	373	27	41	-1	86
Boston	38	39	4.09	.773	385	352	33	42	-4	84
Baltimore	35	44	5.55	.805	410	453	-43	36	-1	72
Tampa Bay	32	47	5.09	.752	382	440	-58	34	-2	68

The AL East is probably the oddest of the divisions right now, as the Yankees and Boston have modest surpluses of runs. The Yankees are at about the right number of wins, while the Sox continue to lag below their deserved status. Meanwhile, Toronto has taken advantage of the big two, slipping into first despite lousy pitching.

How have they done it? Well, they've been pummeled big a few times. 11-2, 16-3, 18-6 and 11-1 losses rack up a negative 44 runs in the difference column. When they fall, they can fall big. Of course, there are games where they pummel the opposition, but the balance has generally been the other way.

What does all this mean for the second half? Unless the Jays can fix their pitching, their luck is unlikely to hold out. After all, you can't usually choose when to get pummeled. As for the Red Sox, they appear to be having the same kind of flaky injured pitching staff that's been their hallmark in recent years. Can't rely on them doing much.

This leaves us with the Yankees. Based on run scoring to date, these three teams will end up in the mid-eighties in wins, with the Yankees likely to squeak out the division. All of this could change with a trade, of course, but it would have to be a big one to break this logjam.

Team	W	L	ERA	OPS	Runs Scored	Runs Allowed	Run Difference	Wins Pythag	W-WP	Season Wins
Chicago	52	29	4.37	.838	495	399	96	49	3	101
Cleveland	41	39	4.87	.827	435	404	31	43	-2	85
Minnesota	37	46	5.12	.754	396	448	-52	36	1	72
Kansas City	37	42	5.77	.770	414	477	-63	34	3	73
Detroit	35	43	5.04	.773	356	424	-68	32	3	70

Over in the Central, the story couldn't be more different. The White Sox are riding a 96-run differential to a comfortable lead, outperforming their Pythagorean prediction by three games so far. Even if they average that rate the rest of the way they'll win the division easily.

As for the Indians, they will still be able to say they've won the AL Central every year since its creation -- when Mike Hargrove was the manager. Note that they are underperforming their Pythagorean by a couple of games. Not too significant overall, but when combined with the White Sox +3, the two teams could be a lot closer without the twists of fate (and maybe a good bullpen).

It would be a lot different mentally for the Tribe if the Sox were 49-32 and the Indians 43-37. Five games back would be a lot nicer than ten. Here's a case where a little early-season luck magnifies down the road into the desperation factor for the chasing team.

While the rest of the division is pretty woeful, I must congratulate the Tigers for digging themselves out of a hole that was likely to net them less than 60 wins for the season. Getting to a pace for 70 seems to be almost a moral victory for them.

Team	W	L	ERA	OPS	Runs Scored	Runs Allowed	Run Difference	Wins Pythag	W-WP	Season Wins
Seattle	47	32	4.48	.818	465	357	108	50	-3	99
Oakland	46	34	4.79	.818	493	421	72	46	0	93
Anaheim	42	39	5.03	.834	429	435	-6	40	2	82
Texas	37	42	5.22	.835	434	458	-24	37	0	76

Finally, over in the AL West, we have the Mariners and A's pulling away from the Angels and Rangers. Surprising to some, but not to me. Along with the White Sox, there is a considerable changing of the guard at the top of the AL rankings. No longer is it a Yankees/Indians/Rangers juggernaut. The Mariners have quietly ridden one of the best pitching staffs and a rock solid offense to the best run differential in the league. Due to an excess of close losses, though, it didn't show up in their record right away, and they are still three games below their Pythagorean numbers.

Added to the White Sox' overperformance, the M's six-game Pythagorean swing would be enough to vault them to the best record in the league. Nevertheless, with their excess of pitching, it's hard to see the Mariners not continuing on their push to the 100-win mark. The A's don't have that kind of staff, and their offense has overproduced based on their raw numbers, so I expect that to even out in the second half. Based on their projections, though, they should handily win the wild card. Given the floundering of the Yanks, Red Sox and Indians, it seems more and more likely that the wild card will come from the West

Pythagorean method: Wins = Games Played * (Runs Scored^2 / (Runs Scorred^2 + Runs Allowed^2))
It's remarkably accurate over a full season, indicating that luck tends to even out over a season for the most part.

about the author

Say hello to Dave Paisley next time you're at Safeco Field. He'll be the one with the scorecard and slide rule. Better yet, just e-mail him at drdjp@strikethree.com. Interrupting him while he's calculating RC/27 can get downright ugly.