NL Mystery Men

Jason Michael Barker

Last week I profiled five American League starters -- Albie Lopez, Paul Abbott, Frank Castillo, Makoto Suzuki and Gil Heredia -- who at the time were among the ERA leaders in their league. Abbott and Heredia have since fallen out of the top ten only to be replaced (well, one of them) by another unheralded hurler, Mike Sirotka of the White Sox.

This time we turn our attention to the National League, where the top ten last week featured such superstars as Robert Person, Kirk Rueter and Ryan Dempster. Rueter has since dropped to #14, but I'm going to talk about him anyway, and there's nothing you can do to stop me. I also have some comments about pitcher number ten on the National League's ERA list, but you'll have to wait until the end of the article for that one.

Robert Person, Philadelphia. Person arrived in Philadelphia shortly after the start of last season after two failed years in Toronto. The Blue Jays had high hopes for him after inexplicably sending John Olerud (and cash!) to the Mets for Person after the 1996 season, but he struggled first as a starter and was even worse after being tried as a closer. The Phillies welcomed him with open arms and stuck him in the rotation, where he enjoyed success for the first time in his career.

After getting off to a great start (5-2, 3.17 ERA over his first 14 starts) Person missed about a month of the season with a strained shoulder. He's pitched nearly as well since returning from the disabled list, though he only has one win to show for his 3.68 ERA in six starts. A power strikeout pitcher with flyball tendencies, Person walks too many hitters but has given up less than a hit per inning over the course of his career, and just 99 hits in 124.2 innings this season.

Workload is a concern, as he's the Phillies innings-eater and throws a ton of pitches (110 per start this season) with all those walks and strikeouts. On the other hand, he'll be 31 this winter, so it's not as if we're talking about Rick Ankiel or Kerry Wood here.

Kirk Rueter, San Francisco. In his notes column a week or so ago, Peter Gammons (you know him, you love him) pointed out that Rueter signed a three-year, $15.6M contract with the Giants rather than take his chances with free agency. What's the big deal? Rueter has the third-best career winning percentage among left-handed starters over the past 30 years, behind only Randy Johnson and Andy Pettitte. Gammons' point, and he didn't try to hide it, was that Rueter could have gotten quite a bit more on the open market.

The simple truth is that Rueter hasn't pitched all that well this season. He's give up 159 hits in 142.1 innings, to go along with 53 walks and just 56 strikeouts -- pitchers with that kind of K:BB ratio usually aren't long for MLB. And while he's been tough on lefties, right-handed batters are hitting him to the tune of .309/.369/.489. His 3.92 ERA? Largely a function of PacBell Park -- Rueter's ERA is 2.85 at home, compared to 5.67 on the road. Final verdict? He was smart to take the $15.6M.

Ryan Dempster, Florida. Dempster was rushed to the majors in 1998, posting a 7.08 ERA in 54.2 innings at age 21. He bounced back in 1999 with a 4.71 ERA in 147 innings despite 93(!) walks and 146 hits allowed. He has continued his improvement this season, walking two less batters per nine innings, allowing less than a hit per inning, and increasing his strikeout rate to just over eight per nine innings. He would be dominant if he could cut his walk rate even further, but for now he'll have to settle for just being a good pitcher.

Is there any reason to think he won't continue to improve next season? He has been worked fairly hard this season, averaging around 108 pitches per start, and he's been over 110 13 times, and over 120 four times (including 125 each of his past two starts). Remember, he's only 23. His strikeout-groundout style is a recipe for success, however, and he does pitch in a pretty good park for pitchers.

Finally we come to San Francisco's Livan Hernandez, who currently has a 3.74 ERA, good for tenth in the National League. For years, those in the anti-pitcher abuse camp have pointed to Hernandez as the prototypical example of a pitcher who was overworked, declined, and was certain to suffer a major injury in the near future. The only problem is, Hernandez hasn't been injured, and he's actually gotten better recently, most notably cutting his walk rate down considerably.

Does this guy have a rubber arm, or what? He threw 234 innings in 1998, 200 last year, and is up to 183 so far this season. He's averaging 117 pitches per start this season, and he's been over 120 pitches 13 times, including four starts of 134 or more.

The lesson here is that pitch counts aren't everything -- for every Kerry Wood, you've got a guy like Hernandez who's the exception to the "rule." As the manager of a team, would I let my 20-something year old starter throw over 100 pitches? Probably not. But that doesn't mean a pitcher who does throw a ton of pitches is 100% guaranteed to have his career ruined, either.

Jason Michael Barker showed up at the Strikethree.som office with his right hand all bandaged up in sympathy for his fallen hero. If you know who we mean (and we're sure you do...), why not sympathize with him at at jmb@strikethree.com.

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