Wild, Wild...East?

Dave Paisley

If the American League West is the division nobody wants to win, then the National League East must be its diametric opposite. Sitting pretty with the best record in baseball at the beginning of August, the Braves had every right to think that they deserved an easy passage into the playoffs. However, after a mediocre 13-14 record in August (to the 29th), they allowed a surging Mets team to tie them for the division lead. Admittedly, it has taken a 19-9 surge for the Mets to catch them, but them's the breaks.

As of August 29th, the Braves, Mets and White Sox are tied for the honor of best record in the majors, with the Mets playing much better than the other two of late. Of course, it's not like the Braves are in serious danger of missing the playoffs. Even if they slip behind the Mets, their nearest challenger for the wild card (the Diamondbacks) is a healthy 5-1/2 games back. Well, that's exactly how far the Mets were back a month ago, so perhaps that's not the best example of invulnerability. Here's a look at the teams' records month-by-month, as there's an interesting ebb and flow to the Braves lead.

W/L	Mets		Braves
Month	W	L	W	L	Braves' Lead (G)
Mar/Apr	16	10	18	6	3
May	13	14	17	10	7
Jun	16	8	13	15	2
Jul	14	13	17	9	5.5
Aug	19	9	13	14	0
Totals	78	54	78	54

The general perception of these two teams is that they are primarily fueled by pitching, and I have no evidence to the contrary. Here's a look at their offenses month-by-month:

	Mets		Braves
Month	OPS	League Rank	OPS	League Rank
Apr	.840	2	.781	12
May	.764	11	.839	4
Jun	.849	3	.767	8
Jul	.736	13	.744	10
Aug	.788	4	.740	13
Totals	.791	6	.775	8

Despite a little fluctuation, both offenses are solid middle-of-the-pack squads with nothing to get too excited about either way. Pitching, on the other hand, is a different story:

	Mets		Braves
Month	ERA	League Rank	ERA	League Rank
Apr	4.75	7	3.08	1
May	4.78	6	4.21	3
Jun	4.80	8	5.14	13
Jul	3.49	2	4.03	7
Aug	3.89	5	4.30	7
Totals	4.26	2	4.18	1

While the month-to-month rankings may not indicate it, these are the best two pitching staffs in the league, and they aren't separated by much. The key to a good pitching staff is the starting rotation, and these teams match up very well head to head. Here's the Braves' rotation month-by-month:

ERA	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Maddux	2.49	1.84	4.71	4.76	2.59
Glavine	1.80	4.86	4.85	2.95	5.23
Millwood	3.38	5.29	5.68	6.00	3.32
Mulholland	4.45	5.84	6.75	5.91	-
Burkett	8.53	3.71	4.33	4.15	5.24
Ashby	-	-	-	0.78	6.49

Greg Maddux has had a couple of mortal months, but continues to anchor this rotation. Glavine, meanwhile, has been up and down, with more up (at least in terms of ERA) than down so far. Kevin Millwood has officially been "struggling" and now has to cope with a broken nose during the stretch drive.

Mulholland and Burkett haven't been terribly great, but Bobby Cox seems to like them. Andy Ashby has taken over in the rotation for Mulholland, and had a great start. However, he isn't as good as his July numbers, and isn't as bad as his August might indicate. Overall, this is a good staff, but shakier and weaker at the bottom than it has been for while.

And here's the Mets' rotation:

ERA	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Hampton	6.99	1.85	3.23	3.00	2.23
Leiter	4.46	2.68	2.38	3.74	2.97
Reed	2.83	6.75	6.20	3.50	3.63
Jones, Bobby J.	16.20	6.19	7.13	2.97	3.21
Rusch	1.99	4.50	4.76	4.50	5.28

Mike Hampton got off to a pretty crummy start, but has settled into typical Hampton form. He has also maintained his form with the bat, posting a .283 average, albeit with no power. Al Leiter has followed the same pattern, and the two have been a very effective 1-2 for the last four months. Rick Reed's bad two months came in May and June, but he has settled down of late.

The same can be said of Bobby Jones, who was working his way back for the first three months and has finally settled into a groove with his only loss since early July coming on a 1-0 shutout by Andy Ashby. Finally, there's young Glendon Rusch, king of the lack of run support (a mere 3.64 runs per nine innings.) With the top four starters all posting ERAs below 4.00 for two months straight (average 3.16), this staff looks to be in better form of late than the Braves (average 4.15.)

Even though the penalty for losing is not likely to be very steep, it will still be a vicious fight to the finish between the Mets and the Braves, and that's excluding any further ruckus that John Rocker might cause. One key to the coming month is the difference in the teams' schedules.

The Braves start September on the road in Houston, return home to face Arizona, Montreal and Florida, then head out to Arizona, only to return to face the Mets in Atlanta. They head out then for Montreal and the Mets on the road, finally returning home to finish up with the Rockies. Those are relatively easy games except for the dozen games between the Mets and D-Backs. Their opponents sport an average record of 65-64.

The Mets, on the other hand, visit St. Louis and Cincinnati, return home for the Phillies and Brewers, head out on the road for the Expos, Braves and Phillies, finishing up at home with the Braves and Expos. The average record of Mets opponents is 62-67, so their schedule is easier, in that they only have one tough series other than the head to head games against the Braves, while the Braves have two. Given current form, I guess I give the edge to the Mets, but just barely.

Still, from a point of total parity, this becomes a sprint to the finish, and the six games between the two teams gives each of them a chance to trip the other up. Now that gives me an idea for a new Olympic event -- full contact 100m sprints. I can already see the NBC schmaltz background specials...