Pennant Pileup

Dave Paisley

A month ago I took a peek at the races for the various playoff spots, and with the end in sight, I figured I'd take one last look before we all get wrapped up in magic number fever. During that last look, I figured just what kind of winning percentage the chasing teams would have to manage the rest of the way if the division leaders only won out at a 45% clip and if they romped at 60%. In the AL East, the Red Sox and Blue Jays were 4.5 games back, and poised to take advantage if the Yankees faltered. Well, here's the picture today, with the W* and L* columns indicating each team's record since my last article.

AL East
Team	W	L	GB	W*	L*
Yankees	82	58	-	22	10
Blue Jays	75	68	8.5	16	12
Red Sox	73	67	9	15	14

Sad to say for the Red Sox and Blue Jays, but the Yankees decided not to win at a 60% clip - it looks like they believed that 69% was more to their liking. With an 8-game lead and 22 games remaining, I think we can safely say the Sox and Jays should concentrate on the wild card (sure, I'll do anything I can to jinx the pinstripers). The Sox at least have only themselves to blame, allowing the Yankees to muscle their way into Fenway and kick sand in the face of Pedro Martinez and pals. Even salvaging the fourth game of the series won't make this a horse race.

The AL Central has been a lost cause since April, of course, although Cleveland did breathe a hint of life into the race briefly a few weeks ago. 18-11 since I last checked in is pretty good, but sadly, the White Sox trucked along at 18-12, or 60%. That just makes catching up next to impossible. More on the wild card later.

AL Central
Team	W	L	GB	W*	L*
White Sox	85	57	-	18	12
Indians	76	63	7.5	18	11

The AL West has probably changed the most of all the divisions. In early August, the Mariners were riding high with a five-game lead and a 67-46 record. One eight-game losing streak and another couple of weeks of shabby play and the Mariners were on the ropes with an 11-21 (34%) record since then. Fortunately for them, the A's and Angels weren't much better, managing respective 14-16 and 12-16 records over the same period of time. So rather than vying with the White Sox for the best record in the AL, the Mariners are lucky to remain division leaders.

AL West
Team	W	L	GB	W*	L*
Mariners	78	65	-	11	21
Athletics	75	66	2	14	16
Angels	71	71	6.5	12	16

With two teams to pass, I think we can eliminate the Angels (big words, I know), while the pivotal series for the division has Oakland in Seattle for a four-game series Sept. 21-24. Other than that, they're playing the same teams, so it's simply a sprint for the finish with the Mariners currently ahead by a nose.

But what of that abomination of the century (or savior of baseball, depending on your position): the wild card? Currently, the Indians lead the A's by two games, the Blue Jays by three and the Red Sox by three and a half.

Note that I threw the Mariners in there because after Sunday's games they were the only division leader in the majors without a better record than the wild card leader. I'm sure the Mariners aren't paying attention to the wild card (they are, after all, taking it "one game at a time"), but with such a slim lead over the A's, it could well be a factor. Again, over six games back and with four teams to catch, I think we can wave bye-bye to the Angels.

AL Wild Card
Team	W	L	GB	W*	L*
Indians	76	63	-	18	11
Mariners	78	65	-	11	21
Athletics	75	66	2	14	16
Blue Jays	75	68	3	16	12
Red Sox	73	67	3.5	15	14
Angels	71	71	6.5	12	16

In the AL at least, the wild card promises to be the second most interesting playoff race after the AL West. The Red Sox may have plummeted out of contention in the East rather abruptly, but they have six (count 'em, six) games with the Indians, so the wild card is going to be hotly contested. Well, if Boston doesn't roll over like they did for the Yankees, anyway. Toronto, on the other hand, ends the season with three games against the Indians, but must first navigate six games with the Yankees and three with the White Sox. Not looking good for Les Jays Bleu.

The A's, meanwhile, could cash in as the Sox and Indians mix it up, with a schedule of relative patsies like the Twins, Orioles, Devil Rays, Angels and Rangers. Only that series with Seattle looks even remotely difficult. Given that Seattle has the same schedule, I wouldn't be surprised to see the A's and Mariners both make a late surge to take two playoff spots. But shhhhhh! You didn't hear me say that...

Dave Paisley is the host of the popular CNBC program, "Play Ball with the Market," where he offers stock tips correlating to Mo Vaughn's on-base percentage. Blame the Angels for the plunge in March at drdjp@strikethree.com.

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