Manager Roulette

Jason Michael Barker

When a team has a terrible season, has several bad seasons in a row, or fails to meet expectations, the manager is often replaced because as the saying goes, "You can't fire the players." If your favorite team will be in the market for a new manager this winter, the good news is that there very well could be several of them available. Further, there are managers to fit almost every need: veteran teams, teams with young pitching to be developed, and teams who need that extra push.

In no particular order, then, here are the possible managerial candidates for next season.

Dusty Baker, Giants. Baker will be the most coveted managerial free agent this winter, as his contract in San Francisco is set to expire at season's end. The Giants certainly want him back, and Baker is playing it smart by making them sweat it out, and given how well the team has performed this season, he'll be up for a pretty hefty contract. The speculation is that he'll re-sign in San Francisco, but you never know.

Baker's strength seems to be getting the most of his players, as the Giants are perennial "overachievers." At the other end of the spectrum, he's often very tough on pitchers, and has worked Livan Hernandez, Russ Ortiz, and Shawn Estes pretty hard.

Davey Johnson, Dodgers. Johnson hasn't turned the big-spending Dodgers into division champs in either of his first two seasons, though he can't be held responsible for all the moves made by his general manager. Still, ownership might be ready to move in a different direction in the off-season.

Johnson would be a good fit for a club with young pitchers, and the guys over at Baseball Prospectus wrote in their annual a few years back that clubs tend to walk more under Johnson than they did in the past. I'm a big Davey Johnson fan and have a hard time picking out any obvious weaknesses in his style, but there was the spat with Raul Mondesi last season and the fact that the Dodgers simply haven't been a very good team during his time in LA.

Larry Dierker, Astros. A year ago Dierker leaving Houston, where he has been so successful, would have been a ridiculous notion. It doesn't seem so ridiculous now, however, as the Astros have limped to a 63-82 record. You can place some of the blame on injuries and heap some more on Enron Field, but Dierker has had some fingers pointed at him as well.

Early in the year an unnamed "veteran player" told Baseball Weekly that the team didn't listen to Dierker, and there's another rumor floating around that Mike Hampton told Astros' owner Drayton McLain he'd re-sign in Houston -- on the condition that Dierker is no longer running the club.

How much stock you put in this season is up to you, of course, but Dierker was regarded as one of the better managers in the game before the season started, and the 'Stros have actually played well since the All-Star break. Before Enron he was known for his work with young pitchers, and whether this was his doing or a function of players like Biggio, Bagwell, Meluskey, Caminiti and Alou, his clubs have always had good walk rates.

Bobby Valentine, Mets. Valentine always seems to be on the hot seat in New York, no matter how well the Mets play, due to conflicts with general manager Steve Phillips. Early in the year Valentine complained loudly that the club should have gone after Kazuhiro Sasaki, who signed with the Mariners, to bolster the bullpen. The Mets are winning, though, and sometimes that's enough.

Like Baker, Valentine always seems to get the most out of his clubs, and the Mets are another team that seems to value walks.

Felipe Alou, Expos. Might Alou finally be tired of the act in Montreal? It seems that he gets offers to manage elsewhere nearly every season, but always elects to stay with the Expos. He's said that he wouldn't manage anywhere else in 2001, but that doesn't necessarily mean anything, and new owner Jeffrey Loria might want to bring in his own guy (and he seems to have a Yankees fetish).

Alou is perhaps the best manager in the game for developing young pitchers, with Javier Vazquez, Tony Armas and Carl Pavano three great examples. He's also good a putting together an effective bullpen made up of unproven youngsters and journeymen cast-offs from other organizations. Unfortunately, he doesn't seem very concerned about players drawing walks, but as with Dierker, that could be a product of the players and the farm system.

Jack McKeon, Reds. McKeon signed a one-year deal last winter after speculation that he wouldn't be back in Cincinnati at all, and he'll almost certainly be looking elsewhere for work after this season if he doesn't decide to retire. McKeon turns 70 in November, so retirement is certainly a possibility. At his age it must be harder for him than younger managers to relate to players 40-plus years younger than he is, if you are a fan of that argument.

Like Alou, McKeon's strength lies in running a bullpen. He deserves credit for discarding traditional reliever roles last year, helping Scott Williamson and company comprise the best bullpen in baseball. The Reds have failed to meet expectations this season, but McKeon shouldn't be blamed for the addition of Dante Bichette or Ken Griffey Jr.'s .230 batting average in the first half of the season.

Tune in next time, when we'll take a look at the American League managers most likely to be elsewhere in 2001.

If your team is looking for a fresh new face as manager instead of recycling the same tired old hacks, why not consider our very own Jason Michael Barker? He's got lots of great ideas and would work cheap. Just send contracts to jmb@strikethree.com.