Manager Roulette, II

Jason Michael Barker

Wednesday we looked at the National League managers who might be looking elsewhere for work this off-season. Today I realized that I left out Buck Showalter, whose Diamondbacks are poised to miss the post-season despite high pre-season expectations and the addition of Curt Schilling. As such we'll start in Arizona, then move on to the American League managers.

If I were Showalter, I'd be looking over my shoulder the minute the World Series is over. His team certainly isn't going to be in the Series, despite those who claimed that trading for Schilling made Diamondbacks an unstoppable force. These same people seem to have forgotten that you need also to score runs to win games, and the D-Backs are ninth in the NL in runs scored. It isn't a strong ninth, either -- they're 170 runs behind number one Colorado, but just 90 ahead of last place Philadelphia.

Showalter was done in this season by veterans who had career years in 1999 but who have failed to match that performance this season. You could argue that he should have tried to break in some young talent last season or press management to bring in younger players, but it's unlikely that Matt Williams, Jay Bell, Luis Gonzalez or Steve Finley would have been traded. And since you can't fire the team, it's possible Showalter will take the fall for the team's disappointing performance.

I've never heard him called a managerial genius like Dusty Baker or Davey Johnson, but then again I've never seen him compared to incompetence, either. Given his success with Arizona last season and with the Yankees in 1995, he'd probably be a pretty hot commodity on the open market.

Last time I mentioned that Felipe Alou might be on his way out in Montreal, if new owner Jeffrey Loria decided to bring in his own (ex-Yankee) guy. There's also new ownership in Toronto, as the Blue Jays were just purchased by a Canadian media conglomerate. Is this the end of Jim Fregosi as the new owners try to prove that they're "serious about winning?"

I see Fregosi as sort of a Lou Piniella-lite -- he's good with a veteran team, but overworks his young pitchers and makes questionable in-game choices. You can ask any Blue Jays fan about that last one.

What do you get when you take the Boston Red Sox and subtract Pedro Martinez? A manager in danger of losing his job after his team misses the playoffs. Of course, you can add Pedro back if you like and Jimy Williams and the Red Sox still might not make the post-season, despite those pre-season World Series predictions. Williams has run an excellent bullpen, as usual, but his core of Pedro, Nomar and Everett have little support, though his sick fascination with playing a woefully inadequate Jose Offerman at first base doesn't help.

It's difficult to blame Williams for the likes of Ed Sprague, Rico Brogna and Mike Lansing being brought in, however, or for GM Dan Duquette to add a quality starting pitcher to complement Pedro. Ask yourself who's more likely to get fired, though -- Duquette or Williams? I'd say Williams, deserved or not, because I think there's a perception that it's easier to replace a manager than a general manager. I'll also say that Williams would be sought after by a number of other clubs if they had opening, because aside from unreasonable expectations this season the Red Sox have played well during his tenure.

Minnesota's Tom Kelly has been with the Twins since 1987, and the Twins have been trying to rebuild since 1992 with mixed results. On the one hand Kelly has given regular jobs to a number of young players, mostly due to necessity. On the other, he hasn't handled good young players like David Ortiz, Matt LeCroy and Joe Mays all that well, though Ortiz has finally been given a shot this season and is hitting well.

His old-school approach and preference for veterans doesn't seem to fit well with a rebuilding team, and he'd probably jump at the chance to take over a team which would give him a shot at one more World Series title. Of course, it's possible he's been managing a AAA team for too long and doesn't remember how to play anything other than "small ball."

Finally Lou Piniella, who along with Dusty Baker should be the most coveted managerial free agent this winter. Rumors abound that Sweet Lou will bolt from Seattle for either Tampa Bay or Cincinnati, and there doesn't appear to be much sentiment that he'll re-sign with the Mariners, assuming they want him back. And they might not -- GM Pat Gillick might be looking to bring in his own guy. For his part, Piniella has hired an agent for the first time in his career to represent him come contract time.

Piniella works best with a veteran ballclub, pitchers who don't beat themselves with walks, and he's much better off with a good pitching coach (see this year's Mariners for an example). To his credit he's developed a number of young hitters into productive players, but the same cannot be said for his record with young pitchers -- he tends to overwork those who pitch well, while shattering the confidence of those who are not.

Don't let that laid back approach to Lou Piniella's Seattle career fool you -- Jason Michael Barker is salivating like one of Pavlov's dogs at the thought of Piniella being replaced. Why not ring his bell at jmb@strikethree.com.

Web Strikethree.com