NLCS Preview

Jason Michael Barker

The 2000 National League Championship Series -- the battle of two teams that weren't even supposed to be here.

The Mets may have won 94 games this season, but the Giants had the best record in baseball and were led by MVP candidates Barry Bonds and Jeff Kent. And while it wasn't a huge shocker that the Cardinals beat Atlanta in the other division series, I doubt anyone but the biggest of St. Louis fans dreamt of sweeping the Braves.

With the NLCS starting today, here's a quick look at both the Cardinals and Mets.

Starting Rotation

Quick -- of all the pitchers whose teams are still alive in the post-season, which two had the lowest ERA during the season? Keep in mind that Pedro Martinez, Kevin Brown, Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux either didn't have enough to get to October, or were rudely pushed aside in the first round.

Sorting through the rubble reveals a pair of Mets: Al Leiter and Mike Hampton. Guess who's starting the first two games of the NLCS for the Mets? Al Leiter and Mike Hampton. That's a huge edge heading into the series, though Darryl Kile and Rick Ankiel aren't chopped liver either. The Mets also bring control freak Rick Reed and Division Series hero Bobby Jones to the table, while the Cardinals counter with Andy Benes and Pat Hentgen.

Leiter and Hampton are the closest things to dominant starters in this series, but while Leiter has turned in some great "big game" performances in his career, Hampton is prone to wildness and occasionally turns in horrible starts. Kile and Reed are what I'd call "solid," while Benes has battled both injuries and ineffectiveness this season. Hentgen had a strong second half of the season, but like Hampton walks too many batters. Jones will be hard pressed to repeat his Game Four performance, but if he comes anywhere close the Mets will be overjoyed.

Wildcard: Ankiel. He was terribly shaky opening the Atlanta series, but he has tremendous stuff when he's on and has command of his pitches. He's capable of running off six or seven shutout innings, which with the Cardinals' offense should be more than enough for a St. Louis victory. On the other hand, he might uncork five wild pitches again and take his team out of a game.

Edge: Slight edge to the Mets thanks to Leiter and Hampton.

Bullpen

The Mets boast a very deep bullpen anchored by closer Armando Benitez, who's dominant more often than not. Turk Wendell and Rick White are solid from the right side and both capable of pitching more than one inning when needed. John Franco may be getting on in years and lacking good stuff, but he's still murder on left-handed batters. Glendon Rusch, who started 30 games during the regular season and walked just 44 men in 190.2 innings, would be a good choice for a long man out of the pen if he's not used as a starter.

The Cardinals underwent a bullpen overhaul this winter -- adding closer Dave Veres, and getting back Mike James and Alan Benes after the pair missed all of 1999 with injuries -- and kept making moves during the year, picking up Mike Timlin and Jason Christiansen at mid-season to shore things up from the right and left sides respectively.

Veres, Timlin and James make for a trio of good right-handers, but this bullpen is pretty short of left-handers. Christensen is a lefty and stands 6-5 with good stuff, didn't pitch well this season after being great each of the last three. This might not be a problem against the Mets, though, who don't boast a quality left-handed bat outside of Robin Ventura.

Edge: Mets, behind the 1-2 punch of Franco and Benitez.

Offense

Here's where the Cardinals make up what they give away to the Mets in the pitching department, which honestly isn't all that much to begin with (New York allowed 738 runs this season, St. Louis 771). Interestingly, both clubs walked 675 times this season (good for second in the National League), but the Cardinals bring quite a bit more pop to this NLCS.

All four regular St. Louis outfielders -- Jim Edmonds, Ray Lankford, Eric Davis and J. D. Drew -- are better than anything the Mets have going in their outfield, which consists of nice role players in Benny Agbayani, Jay Payton, Timo Perez, and Bubba Trammell.

Around the infield, the Mets count a great deal on Edgardo Alfonzo for offensive production. Robin Ventura still has homer power and will take a walk, but hit just .232 this season, nearly a 70-point decline from his 1999 average. Mike Bordick was nothing special before this season and held to that form after joining the Mets for the last two months of the season, while Todd Zeile's offense doesn't cut the mustard at first base.

The only place the Cardinals don't have a good infield match-up with the Mets is at second base, though Fernando Vina's .380 on-base percentage at the top of the order is an important part of the St. Louis attack. Fernando Tatis provides power at the hot corner, while Edgar Renteria hit a very respectable .375/.423 in the second half of the season after a rough start. I laughed at the acquisition at the time, but Will Clark put together a monster two months once he was dealt to the Cardinals, and he homered in the Division Series. One more Thrill from Will?

Edge: St. Louis. And don't forget about Mark McGwire off the bench!

Prediction: St. Louis in six games. The Mets' superior pitching won't be enough to overcome their relative lack of offense, and as the Braves saw in the first round, the Cardinals have plenty of offense. Further, after the first-round sweep, the St. Louis pitching staff is well rested in comparison to New York's.

Web Strikethree.com