Start Spreadin' the News

Dave Paisley

After 24 hours, I'm over my disappointment with the Mariners loss to the Yankees. Bar two inexplicable meltdowns by Arthur Rhodes, the Mariners could still be playing and perhaps even be in World Series. But they ain't, so it's time to move on.

It seems like everyone and his dog are done with baseball for the season now. Nobody outside the New York metropolitan area is going to watch the World Series. I don't buy it, because when it comes down to it most fans outside New York want to see the Yankees lose.

Not that they necessarily want the Mets to win, mind you. I'm sure fans of other American League teams can hardly wait to see the Yanks get their comeuppance. Meanwhile, I suspect that fans of other National League teams will be rooting for the Mets as their representative, except for maybe Dodger fans, who have never fully let go of the Mike Piazza issue.

It should be a pretty fascinating series, though. Beyond a couple of big guns, both teams appear to be generating offense with smoke and mirrors. The Mets are especially curious because of their entire no-name outfield. I figured the best way to evaluate this contest would be to look at the head-to-head matchups. Here are the starting lineups. The table shows regular season OPS for each player as well as post season OPS (PS OPS.)

PS OPS	OPS	Yankees	Pos	Mets	OPS	PS OPS
.634	.944	Posada	C	Piazza	1.012	1.120
.919	.750	Martinez	1B	Zeile	.823	.805
.705	.751	Knoblauch	2B	Alfonzo	.967	1.035
.492	.673	Brosius	3B	Ventura	.777	.711
.815	.897	Jeter	SS	Bordick	.686	.473
.783	.961	Justice	LF	Agbayani	.868	.993
.900	.957	Williams	CF	Payton	.778	.475
.535	.760	O'Neill	RF	Perez	.802	.692

The edge at catcher obviously belongs to the Mets. Posada is good, but even when he's on, he's no Mike Piazza. In the playoffs that disparity is much larger. That either means that Posada is in a slump (bad) or that he's "due" (good.) Meanwhile, Piazza just rolls on. I see first base as a wash. Zeile has been better during the season, but Martinez has been hot in the playoffs. He'll probably get cooled off considerably by the Mets big lefties, though. Second base also belongs to the Mets, especially if Sojo plays instead of Knoblauch, which could happen by Game 2 if Chuck can't field.

Despite a sub-par year for Robin Ventura, third base is another win for the Mets, as Scott Brosius continues to put up numbers that prove that 1998 was the fluke year, not 1999. By the time we get to shortstop, however, the Yankees finally get a big win with Jeter over Bordick.

In the outfield, Justice vs. Agbayani is a wash, while Bernie Williams wins handily over Jay Payton. Paul O'Neill against Timo Perez is another tie, I'd say: the washed-up hack vs. the flash in the pan.

So offensively, the Mets win three, the Yanks win two and three are bout even. Regular season OPS for the starters was about even, but the Mets' offense has performed better in the postseason than the Yanks'.

The benches have hardly been used in the postseason at all, so it's difficult to draw conclusions. Overall, I'd say the benches won't be a factor.

Here are the starting rotations:

PS ERA	ERA	Yankees	Pos	Mets	ERA	PS ERA
3.50	4.35	Pettitte	SP	Hampton	3.14	2.11
4.50	3.70	Clemens	SP	Leiter	3.20	3.00
3.63	4.51	Hernandez	SP	Reed	4.11	5.79
4.50	5.81	Neagle	SP	Jones	5.06	4.15

Almost every starting pitcher matchup favors the Mets, both from a regular season ERA viewpoint and based on postseason numbers so far. League differences (the DH) certainly don't account for the margins. It's clear that Hampton against Pettitte heavily favors the Mets, as does Leiter versus Clemens. With all the hype his one-hitter received, Clemens will no doubt be favored, but I'm not at all sure he can repeat that performance.And as good he was then, he was pretty bad before that.

Hernandez against Reed is an interesting matchup, especially given the hype that Hernandez has received of late. He proved to be quite ordinary against Seattle in Game 6, and he can definitely be taken. Finally, if the teams go with four starters (and I suspect that whichever team gets down 1-2 or 0-3 will toss in their Game 1 starter on three days' rest), Jones is better than Neagle too. I see the starting pitching as a big advantage for the Mets.

Finally, the bullpens...

PS ERA	ERA	Yankees	Pos	Mets	ERA	PS ERA
9.00	4.54	Gooden	LR	Rusch	4.01	0.00
5.40	4.76	Choate	MR	Wendell	3.59	0.00
0.00	6.91	Cone	MR	Cook	5.34	0.00
2.08	4.10	Stanton	SU/L	Franco	3.40	3.86
5.40	2.45	Nelson	SU/R	White	3.81	4.76
0.93	2.85	Rivera	CL	Benitez	2.61	3.00

With four relievers with season ERAs under 4.00 and a quality starter like Rusch in the pen, the Mets have an edge here, too. When they're on, Nelson and Rivera can be devastating, but Seattle touched them both up in the ALCS and Stanton isn't terribly intimidating as the lefty setup guy. Rivera is a step up from Benitez, but the rest of the pen makes up for it. So let's call that a wash.

So, summing up for the court, I believe that the Mets have a substantial advantage going into the Series, based on a small offensive advantage and a sizeable edge in starting pitching. Does it mean they'll win? Absolutely not. On paper, the Yankees should already be gone but here they are, like Freddy Krueger, back for one more round. But I'm going to predict a Mets victory in six games, with Benny Agbayani as the unlikely Series MVP. May God have mercy on our souls...

about the author

Dave Paisley is the guy on the Razor scooter in those indecipherable high-tech commercials. Let him know you really don't believe he makes a Renton-Seattle commute that way at drdjp@strikethree.com.