Stats While-U-Wait

Dave Paisley

No, today's article has nothing to do with Robert Downey Jr.'s pusher or anything remotely like that. No, as far as the free-agent situation is concerned, it's like being on an ancient Boeing 727 circling O'Hare airport due to fog. The only good news is that the situation will come to an end. Just as the airplane will eventually run out of fuel, so Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Mike Mussina and Mike Hampton will eventually run out of patience. Then they'll just take the money and run.

In the meantime, though, what can a pundit do? I decided to amuse myself by combing through some oddball pitching statistics, or some that aren't that odd, but don't come to light very often.

First off, which major league pitcher was the most durable and consistent last year? There are better ways to measure consistency, but Quality Starts (QS) is a reasonable place to start. (Note that a quality start is earned when a starter goes at least six innings and gives up three or fewer earned runs.) So who led the majors last year? You might guess Randy Johnson, or Pedro Martinez, but you'd be wrong (but not by much.) Pedro missed some time, of course, so it figures he might lead in percentage of QS, but not in number. Here's the top twelve:

Pitcher	Team	QS
Glavine	Atl	26
Brown	LA	26
Maddux	Atl	25
Johnson	Az	25
Martinez	Bos	25
Vazquez	Mon	24
Park	LA	23
Helling	Tex	22
Clemens	NYY	21
Hernandez	SF	21
Sirotka	ChA	21
Mussina	Bal	21

Very interesting. It does seem that the best pitchers come out on top. The biggest surprise is Javier Vazquez of Montreal, but it's not surprising that he'd be overlooked. Note that our two Cy Young winners are right in there, and that free-agent Mike Mussina is tied for ninth, while Mike Hampton is conspicuous by his absence (not that he's far away, mind you.)

Next up: ground ball pitchers. Who gives up the most ground balls relative to fly balls (G/F)? One of the best-known in this arena is Greg Maddux, and when you see the list...

Pitcher	Team	G/F Hi
Maddux	Atl	2.66
Hampton	NYM	2.51
Schoeneweiss	Ana	2.44
Wright	Mil	2.15
Brown	LA	2.11
Estes	SF	2.06
Clement	SD	2.06
Hudson	Oak	2.02
Holt	Hou	1.82
Finley	Cle	1.80

...it shows that his reputation doesn't lie. Maddux is an extreme ground ball pitcher, so much so that his lowest ratio ever was 2.22 in 1999. There's also Kevin Brown with his sinker sitting at number five, so there are at least a couple of guys who are perpetually camped out here. There's free-agent Mike Hampton, too. With Tim Hudson, Shawn Estes and Chuck Finley here, too, it certainly appears that being a ground ball pitcher lends itself to success.

Meanwhile, at the other end of the spectrum, we have the following:

Pitcher	Team	G/F Lo
Helling	Tex	.56
Milton	Min	.62
Person	Phi	.69
Millwood	Atl	.71
Hernandez	NYY	.71
Neagle	NYY	.75
Elarton	Hou	.77
Wolf	Phi	.82
Benes, An	StL	.86
Bottenfield	Phi	.88

These guys are the least ground ball oriented. Or to put it another way, the most fly ball oriented. While there are some household names here (Helling, Milton, Millwood) Millwood is interesting, in that his Ground/Fly ratio has declined every year so far, from 1.21 in 1997 down to .71 in 2000, although low ratios haven't correlated with success or failure as a pitcher.

Moving on to relievers, who was worst at allowing inherited runners to score? Most closers come in at the start of the ninth with nobody on, so they typically don't see a lot of inherited runners. No, the guys who see the most are your middle relief and setup guys. So who was worst? Here are the guys who allowed the highest percentage (IRS%) of inherited runners (IR) to score (IS):

Pitcher	Team	IRS %	IR	IS
Santiago	KC	64%	33	21
Mahomes	NYM	57%	35	20
Mesa	Sea	56%	36	20
Valdes	Hou	51%	35	18
Herges	LA	50%	34	17
Almanzar	SD	49%	45	22
Borbon	Tor	49%	41	20
Slusarski	Hou	48%	46	22
Carrasco	Min/Bos	47%	51	24
Kline	Mon	43%	40	17
White	Col	41%	49	20
Quantrill	Tor	41%	59	24

I guess if you're a starter in trouble the last guy you want to see coming in is the Royals' Jose Santiago. Two thirds of his inherited runners came around to score. Now, it is possible that he came in many times with bases loaded and nobody out - that's a tough situation to stop runners from scoring, but I doubt that was the case.

I know from personal experience that Jose Mesa, for instance, number three on the list, just plain sucks. The Seattle crowd would emit a peculiar sound when his name was called -- a mixture of apprehension and resignation. Then again, there were a few who simply yelled, "Mesa! You're a bum!" I believe I may have been one of them. I suspect the same was true of Santiago and Mahomes.

Finally, let's take a look at the luckiest pitchers, those who got the most run support (RS) from their offense this year. Note that average is a little over 5.00, so our leader Shawn Estes was getting almost double his fair share.

Pitcher	Team	RS
Estes	SF	8.65
Pettitte	NYY	7.61
Hudson	Oak	7.34
Benes, An	StL	7.16
Rapp	Bal	7.14
Elarton	Hou	7.10
Appier	Oak	7.10
Stephenson	StL	6.87
Parque	ChA	6.79
Sele	Sea	6.63
Dreifort	LA	6.49

It's no surprise that good run support can turn a good pitcher into an apparently great one (Hudson, Pettitte, Estes) or an average one into an apparent star (Appier, Parque, Sele, Rapp.)

So there you have it. Some idle diversion to take your mind off the seemingly endless free-agent quest. Or election. Whatever.

about the author

Dave Paisley is currently standing outside the Comedy Central offices, demanding that either they stop showing all those "Nerds" movies or he'll set fire to Ben Stein. Do not, we repeat, do not offer him a container of Sterno at drdjp@strikethree.com.