Twin Killings

The question is - are the Twins in the same boat?

Remember last year the Royals were the team winning games in their last at bat almost every night it seemed. For some reason they (and many baseball pundits) believed it would go on forever. The reality is though, that three run walk-off homers are as rare as virgin hookers in New York City. Not that I'm an expert in that field, or anything, but I can imagine that they are pretty rare. And I'm sure that virgin hookers aren't much more common in, say, Wichita, KS. But I digress.

So, does the Twins start have that same fluky feel to it, or are they for real. Well, for one thing, they got rid of All-Star 1B Ron Coomer, so there's definitely room for improvement. And what an improvement, with Doug Mientkiewicz (easy for you to say) cranking out a 1.000 plus OPS. Not to mention DH David Ortiz, now fully back to form after injury robbed him of most of the 1999 season. Last year was disappointing but now appears to be attributable to a slow recovery. Last year, Matt Lawton appeared to be the offensive jewel in the Twins lineup. Now, even at a .850-ish OPS, he barely rates a mention (even though that's pretty decent.)

Throw in SS Christian Guzman hitting like Alex Rodriguez and Corey Koskie hitting like Chipper Jones and there's a good reason why the Twins were on top in runs scored per game after 17 games.

Can it last? Not at this level, but to be honest, some of these guys are simply fulfilling some of the potential they've always had. They may not end up as the best offense in the AL, but they won't fall back to dead last as in past years.

And what about the pitching? Because of the nature of their early wins last year, the Royals had a lot of bullpen wins and a lot of no decisions for their starters. Does that hold for the Twins? Not at all. Their starters are 10-4 with their top two guys, Radke and Milton, a combined 7-0. That means that Mays, Redman and Romero are 3-4, which may not bode well, but both Mays and Redman have pitched reasonably well. Romero, meanwhile, has sucked pretty badly. The bullpen has been pretty good, with the sole exception of the hitherto reliable Eddie Guardado.

One other caveat - with play so far based almost entirely on divisional play, one might wonder whether the Twins have simply feasted temporarily on other weak AL Central teams. The answer is yes and no. They've beat up Detroit 5-0, split 3-3 with Kansas City and trounced the White Sox 6-0, followed up with a loss to Boston as play opens up with East division teams. Beating Detroit is no great shakes and splitting with KC is hardly anything to write home about. The double sweep of the White Sox is indicative that the White Sox aren't the team they were last year (probably true - they were a .500 team in the second half) and the Twins are simply better than last year (also true.)

So what's the verdict? Will the Twins run away with the AL Central? I doubt it. The Twins will no doubt achieve respectability. With Radke and Milton, they have as good a 1-2 punch as anyone in the AL. There's nothing much to back it up, though. On the offensive front, Ortiz, Koskie, Guzman, Lawton and Mientkiewicz should continue to provide a solid offensive threat, although no9t at the league-leading level. .500 looks like it's well within reach at this point, and the Twins may well finish behind only Cleveland in the Central. They could be the AL Central surprise of 2001, just as the Chicago White Sox were the surprise of 2000 (and 2001, but in a bad way...)

Now, if only we could figure out what's gotten into the Phillies, Cubs and Mariners... or who put Kryptonite in the Braves and A's locker rooms.

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