Surprise, Surprise

Jason Michael Barker

Where has the season gone, anyway? It seems like mere weeks ago I was sitting in sunny Arizona watching Cactus League action between the Mariners and Angels, yet as the calendar turns to June we find ourselves roughly one-third of the way through the baseball season.

And as we sit one-third of the way into the season, we've learned a few things, haven't we kids? Most of all we've learned not to trust what the "experts" think is going to happen -- and that includes anything you might have read on this site. As I write this Monday night, the division leaders in the American League are Boston, Minnesota and Seattle. Say what? In the National League, Philadelphia, Chicago (that's the Cubs, mind you) and Arizona sit atop their respective divisions. Huh?

The Red Sox were supposed to be happy just to hang around in the East until Nomar Garciaparra came back from injury and until Dan Duquette could swing a deal for another starter to complement Pedro Martinez. Pedro has been awesome, as has MVP-frontrunner Manny Ramirez. But somewhere along the way somebody forgot to tell Hideo Nomo and Frank Castillo that they were washed up -- and the Red Sox find themselves a game up on the Yankees. In July when other contending clubs are looking to add another piece to the puzzle, Boston gets to welcome back the second-best shortstop in the game without giving up a single player.

Most people had either the White Sox or the Indians pegged to rise to the top of the AL Central this year, but yet here are the Twins. The biggest surprise in Minnesota has to be Doug Mientkiewicz, who hit .229/.324/.330 two years ago and was quite possibly the worst regular in baseball. After spending last season in the minors, Mientkiewicz hit .380/.425/.709 in April. He "slumped" to .330/.419/.490 in May, but is still off to a great start.

What shouldn't be a surprise is how well the Twins are pitching. Brad Radke has been a workhorse and quasi-ace for several years, Eric Milton is one of the better young left-handers in the league, and Joe Mays has rebounded nicely from a rough 2000 season to build on his promising 1999 rookie year. Entering Monday night's start, Mays had held opposing batters to a .199 average and .252 on-base percentage (compare Pedro at .186/.242).

Surprises abound in Seattle as well, where it is apparently possible for a 32-year old infielder who had hit .256/.319/.432 over the past three years to hit like crazy despite playing half his games in a pitcher's park. After Monday night's two-homer, seven-RBI game, Bret Boone checks in at a robust .332/.363/.576 and leads the Mariners with 13 homers. Then there's Ichiro, who even the most optimistic observers said would hit around .320 with no power and a few steals. Try a .366 average with 20 steals in 25 attempts -- and a slugging percentage close to .500 thanks to 15 doubles and five triples.

Another mild surprise in Seattle has been the bullpen, which has been even better than advertised. Jeff Nelson, Arthur Rhodes, Kazuhiro Sasaki, Jose Paniagua, Ryan Franklin and Norm Charlton -- yes, that Norm Charlton -- have combined for a 2.43 ERA and 168 strikeouts in 170.1 innings. Monday night Ryan Franklin, who wouldn't even have made the club this spring if not for an injury to starter Paul Abbott, worked 5.2 innings of no-run, one-hit, one-walk, eight-strikeout relief against Texas to lower his ERA to 2.53 on the season. Franklin throws five different pitches (fastball, curve, slider, change, forkball) and says he'd love to throw his sixth -- a knuckler -- if only the Mariners would let him.

Which is a bigger surprise: that the Braves are only 29-26 at this point in the season, or that they're trailing the Philadelphia Phillies by six games at this point in the season? Despite having only outscored their opponents by a combined 23 runs this year the Phillies stand at 35-20, good for the best record in the National League. There's no one player carrying the offense, but Philly has four guys -- Bobby Abreu, Pat Burrell, Travis Lee and Scott Rolen -- around the .370/.450 (or better) mark. It's a similar story on the other side of the ball, where there's no ace but where all five starters sport ERA's between 3.70 and 4.70. That might not be a great deal of help in the post-season, but it will win you a good number of games during the regular year provided you score some runs. And despite being led by a motley cast of characters -- Rheal Cormier, Ricky Bottalico, Jose Mesa, Wayne Gomes and Chris Brock -- the bullpen has an ERA of 3.65.

Ah, the Chicago Cubs. Sammy's club got off to a good start, the proceeded to lose nine of ten between May 8th and May 18th. Just when it looked like Sosa and company were in for another long season, the Cubs ran off 12 victories in a row and took back the lead in the NL Central. What's in the water at Wrigley? For that matter, what's in the beer at Wrigley? Heck, what kind of water are they putting in the beer at Wrigley? You get the idea.

Whatever it is, the hitters haven't consumed any. The Cubs are a mere 10th in the National League in runs scored, but thanks to the best ERA in the NL -- a development that can only be deemed "wacky" -- the club has a 33-12 record and a two-game lead over the Cardinals. The good news is that the Cubs could start hitting better tomorrow and improve their run scoring. The bad news is that the opposite argument could be made about the pitching, so in the end you just never know.

That's all for now, but be sure to tune in next time when we'll delve into such topics as "Is Albert Pujols the next Bob Hamelin?" and "Mike Hampton and Denny Neagle: Did they make deals with the Devil?"

about the author

Jason Michael Barker can't decide which would be worse: being the next Bob Hamelin or making a deal with the Devil. Before you offer your advice to jmb@strikethree.com, please remember what Hamelin is up to these days..

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