AL Rookie Roundup

Jason Michael Barker

It continues to be a rough year for American League rookies. There's really only one star in the bunch -- Ichiro Suzuki, the runaway favorite to take home Rookie of the Year hardware -- and at age 27 he isn't likely to have a long productive career, at least not on this side of the Pacific. Turning towards youth, C.C. Sabathia is still young enough to be both a star and have a long career, but so far his pitching has been marginal at best. The rest of the rookie crop is comprised of minor league vets like Chris Michalak and David Eckstien, plus incredibly overrated players such as Alfonso Soriano and Shea Hillenbrand. Onward, however.

As I write this on the evening of June 11, Ichiro has collected 100 hits in 61 games. The modern record for hits in a season is 257 by George Sisler back in 1920, with Ichiro on pace to finish at 266. That isn't much of a lead at this point, and it's conceivable he'll get more rest as the season goes on and the Mariners coast into the post-season, but topping Sisler's mark would be quite a feat.

There are a few reasons Ichiro has so many hits this year, the first of which is that he leads the majors in at-bats -- he hits at the top of a batting order that's scored more runs than any team outside of Coors Field, and he's only walked 10 times all year. Incidentally, he's on pace to shatter Willie Wilson's all-time record of 704 at-bats in a season. The second is his great speed, which leads to legitimate infield hits and the infield hits that arise when infielders rush plays in an attempt to catch him.

He still doesn't walk enough, and it's possible he never will. But 61 games into the season it's a bit difficult to simply dismiss his .357 batting average (and subsequent .385 OBP) as merely a "slow start" -- he's seen pitchers twice and there has been plenty of time for opposing teams to learn "the book" on Ichiro. All he does is hit.

Anaheim's David Eckstein is still hitting as well, though he has slipped considerably since a hot April. His .286 average and decent walk rate have led to a .366 OBP, and there's nothing wrong with getting that kind offense from your shortstop. It's not Rodriguez or Garciaparra, of course, but who is? Eckstein has also stolen seven bases in eight attempts while playing solid defense. Go check on the numbers your favorite team is getting from their starting shortstop -- then remember that Eckstein was a waiver claim.

Unlike Ben Sheets, C.C. Sabathia hasn't exactly exploded on the scene in his rookie year. Sabathia sports a 5.14 ERA in 56 innings, but even more alarming are his 32 walks -- those kind of control issues might pass for pitchers who don't give up many hits, but he's also allowed 59 hits for a 1.63 WHIP (Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched). If you follow rotisserie baseball at all, you know that isn't a good number. Sabathia's strikeout rate is also very low (5.5 per nine) for a guy with his overpowering stuff.

Up north, Toronto's 30-year old rookie Chris Michalak continues to get the job done for a staff that needs it. He hasn't been overpowering, dominating or a big innings eater, but his 3.49 ERA, 62 hits and 26 walks allowed in 69.2 innings are very respectable for a back of the rotation starter. He's been extremely tough on left-handers (.180/.261/.262), so even if this starting thing doesn't work out he should have a decent career as a reliever. The good news is that righties haven't killed him either (.263/.348/.423), so perhaps he'll stick around awhile.

Last month I said Alfonso Soriano and Shea Hillenbrand were frauds, and since that time nothing's changed. Soriano's .279 and projected 42 doubles are so appealing, aren't they? What isn't appealing is his walk rate -- with five walks in 226 at-bats so far, he's on pace for 13 for the season to go along with 125 strikeouts! That sort of ratio isn't even acceptable for a big-time power hitter. Still, the most telling number is his anemic .295 OBP. Ick.

Hillenbrand, meanwhile, is hitting .272 but has shown some power. By some I mean that his slugging percentage, unlike Soriano's, is actually a hair over the .400 mark. He too is on pace for 13 walks over a full season, and like Soriano his .289 on-base percentage just isn't getting the job done. Perhaps the Yankees and Red Sox have some sort of pact, whereby to keep things interesting in the division race, each team agrees to give a truly putrid hitter regular playing time.

If the AL Rookie Roundup has left you feeling hopeless about today's young players, be sure to tune in next week for a look at the National League crop. Fear not, it's a much stronger group: Albert Pujols, Ben Sheets, Chris Reitsma, Luke Prokopec and much, much more!

about the author

Jason Michael Barker once walked more times in one intramural softball game than Alfonso Soriano has all season. Pat him on his virtual back when you write to jmb@strikethree.com.

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