Deadline Dealing:
T-Minus One Week...

Jason Michael Barker

Quick -- the trading deadline is one week away. Do you know where your favorite team's prospects are? With any luck they're still in the farm system, at least for the time being, unless of course you're rooting for them to be traded away for a front-line starter or another big bat.

A disclaimer before we get started: I don't have any "inside" information. I'm just looking at the players widely rumored to be traded and the situation (free agency, arbitration, etc.) surrounding them. I also won't do much speculating as to where I think these players are going to wind up, because so often it seems that the teams that land these players were never rumored to be in the mix at all.

It seems everyone and their brother is interested in Pedro Astacio, and rightly so. He really is the only quality starter on the open market, and his contract situation ($6.85M this season, $9M club option next) is quite reasonable for his services. Before you look at his ERA and write him off completely, remember that he's been stuck in Coors Field for the past four years. His ERA away from home this season is 4.24, and from 1998-2000 he comes in at 4.11.

To me, the best thing about Astacio (other than that he's a pretty good pitcher) is the club option for 2002 -- that $9M is likely going to be much less than other free agent pitchers like Aaron Sele and Chan Ho Park get on the open market. On the other hand, a team like the Twins could trade for Astacio and then simply let him walk at the end of the year if they didn't want to pick up the option.

Am I the only one who laughs when they read the name Sterling Hitchcock in all these trade rumors? Perhaps I'm just soured on him because I remember his 1996 campaign in Seattle (5.35 ERA, 245 hits and 27 homers allowed 196.2 innings) all too vividly. He did pitch well in 1998 and 1999 for the Padres and has looked good in two starts this season, but somehow I'm still skeptical, and the major surgery he's coming off doesn't inspire much confidence.

In a move I really don't understand, the Mets are reportedly shopping Glendon Rusch. Let's see -- you've got a starting rotation comprised of Al Leiter (35), Kevin Appier (33), Rick Reed (35), Steve Traschel (30) and Rusch (26). And Rusch, a left-hander who posted a 4.01 ERA last season, is the one you're looking to deal? Sure, the Mets need another bat in the outfield, but that doesn't have to be a priority for this season considering how miserable they've been overall. If anything, the Mets should be looking to move Reed or Leiter, though the latter has a fairly extensive "no-trade" list in his contract. If Rusch is available on the cheap, some team is going to get a bargain on a guy who should be an above-average pitcher for the next five years.

Among the non-pitchers on the block, two of Toronto's outfielders -- Shannon Stewart and Jose Cruz Jr. -- have drawn a good deal of attention. For their part, the Jays would like to unload one of the two to make room for Vernon Wells, currently toiling at AAA Syracuse. Stewart is arbitration eligible after the year and will likely command a hefty sum, whereas Wells will be cheap for several years to come.

While this scenario sounds like the typical move a team in this situation would make, trading either Cruz or Stewart to make room for Wells would be a bad idea. Stewart may be brutal defensively, but he has been perhaps the top lead-off man in the league this year. Cruz, ever an enigma, is finally hitting for average this season and at just 26 years of age, could finally put it all together (i.e., average, walks and power) any day now. Wells, meanwhile, is hitting a paltry .270/.323/.447 in the minors (and being out-hit by Deion Sanders of all people) and has never shown great plate discipline. A need for quality arms makes teams do silly things, however.

Moving to the infield brings up a trio of names: Jason Giambi, Fred McGriff and Tony Clark. Unless the A's either fall apart in the next week or get a killer offer that includes Nick "the Stick" Johnson from the Yankees, I think they'll hold on to Giambi and make a run at the wild card. If they can't re-sign him at season's end, those two compensatory draft picks aren't the worst thing in the world.

I'm still not sure why McGriff turned down the trade to the Cubs, unless he really is holding out for a return ticket to Atlanta. Either he or Tony Clark would make sense for the Braves, who have gotten essentially nothing from first base this season. Clark is younger and could conceivably stick around for a few seasons (though he's a free agent and would have to be re-signed), while McGriff is likely a short-term fix only.

Say, Jason Giambi to Atlanta is an interesting possibility, even if it hasn't been talked about much, don't you think? Assuming McGriff and Giambi stay put, there are enough teams in need of a first baseman -- Atlanta, Boston, the Cubs, the Yankees -- that Clark should wind up somewhere other than Detroit when all is said and done next week.

With the exception of opening day and the entire post-season, the July 31 trade deadline is my favorite part of the baseball season. And no matter what happens, you can rest assured that yours truly will be right here to cover all the comings and goings when the dust settles.

about the author

Blah, blah, blah, blah, Jason Michael Barker. Yadda, yadda, yadda, jmb@strikethree.com, wizzum flizzum flazzum.

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