Prospect Report:
The Highs and the Lows

David Cameron

It's trading season, folks, and the National League West are the first hunters on the market. I had planned on covering all five clubs today, but I've decided to just tackle Arizona and Colorado so I can give you guys a quick rundown of the prospects coming and going in the West.

First, though, the recent NL West moves:

Arizona parted with Nick Bierbrodt and Jason Conti in order to help their major-league rotation. Bierbrodt seems like he has been around forever but is still just 23 and was having an impressive comeback year in AAA after struggling through injuries the past two seasons. He throws pretty hard and is left-handed, so he's sure to be around until his 44th birthday, but I don't think the Diamondbacks will regret giving him up. He needs work on his breaking ball and his control isn't as good as it needs to be, considering his average stuff.

Conti is a fun player to root for. He doesn't look like a baseball player but runs hard for everything, crashes into walls, and does all the little things well. Unfortunately, he doesn't do too many big things well. He has below average power for a corner outfielder and won't get on base enough to be a valuable everyday player. His plate discipline isn't awful, so he'll probably latch on with Tampa (or another intelligent organization) as a fourth outfielder. He is a nice organizational player but eminently replaceable as well.

Colorado made what will probably be the best deal of the season, moving the pitiful Neifi Perez for potentially useful center fielder Mario Encarnacion and solid second base option Jose Ortiz. They also got Todd Belitz, but he's not likely to have a major league impact, especially not in Colorado. Encarnacion established himself as a good prospect in 1999 and has slumped a bit since. A solid defensive player, he doesn't walk enough or hit for sufficient power to be a productive major league starter. He does have the physical tools, however, so he's not someone to write off. We'll discuss Ortiz in more detail in the Colorado report to follow.

San Francisco moved Erasmo Ramirez, Chris Magruder, and Todd Ozias for Andres Galarraga. While Galarraga won't help San Francisco much, he certainly didn't cost anything. None of the three players the Giants lost is likely to spend more than a few weeks in the major leagues.

Los Angeles acquired James Baldwin for Onan Masaoka, Gary Majewski and Jeff Barry. Masaoka has spent parts of the past two years throwing balls in LA and now gets to walk lots of people in Chicago as the White Sox' situation lefty. Majewski came over in the Antonio Osuna trade this spring. While only 21 and potentially promising, he's having a horrible season in A-ball and isn't anywhere close to the majors. He's not worthless, but I wouldn't spend too many sleepless nights worrying about the effects losing him will have on the Dodgers' rotation. Jeff Barry was actually supposed to be Jonathan Barry, but Ken Williams got his scouting reports mixed up. The real Barry he's getting is a 32-year old outfielder with no major league future.

San Diego should be up next with Woody Williams and Sterling Hitchcock both likely to be moved. I'll have a report on whomever they receive next week.

Colorado Rockies:

Dan O'Dowd sounds like a really smart general manager. He's only in his second year on the job, and while he's made some good moves at the major league level, the Rockies farm system has regressed quite a bit since he has taken over. He did make a fantastic trade this week, ridding himself of the horrible Neifi Perez (and that upcoming contract the size of Tim McCarver's ego) while receiving a pair of decent hitting prospects in return. While it was a great move for the Rockies future, it also brings to light several of the problems currently plaguing the Colorado organization.

Jose Ortiz, the best player involved in the deal not named Dye, immediately takes over as the number one hitting prospect the Blake Street Bombers have. After an MVP year in AAA at age 21 last season, Ortiz flopped as Oakland's starting second baseman, got hurt, and returned to a permanent rehab stint in Sacramento after getting healthy. While he has above average power for a middle infielder, Ortiz isn't the most patient player around and leaving the Oakland organization won't help that. His numbers may not reflect it now that he'll be calling another planet home, but I doubt Ortiz will ever be an all-star.

The stated reason for dumping Neifi Perez was to open up a job for "stud prospect" Juan Uribe, but that was just a gigantic smokescreen for dumping a lousy shortstop. Uribe is to a stud prospects what Dave Campbell is to baseball analysts or what Peter Gammons is to reliability and journalistic integrity.

Uribe posted a .314 OBP last year in A-ball and is following it with a .340 OBP this year in AAA, which sounds adequate. However, you should realize that AAA for Colorado is Colorado Springs, also nearly a mile high and a very inflated offensive ballpark. For the record, Uribe is hitting .378 at home and .239 on the road. Now realize that he's drawn 12 walks in 281 at-bats and you have an impatient hack who has never shown an ability to hit major-league pitching and certainly won't anytime soon, Coors Fields notwithstanding.

Worry not Rockies fans; there is a hitter in your organization that can actually hit the ball at sea level. His name is Garrett Atkins and he's following a solid season in the Northwest League by leading the high-A Carolina League in batting average at age 21. He's shown excellent patience with 48 walks in 347 at-bats and, while he only has three home runs, is still slugging .470 due to 33 doubles (also leading the league). The great news for the Rockies is that Atkins will fill that large void they have at first base pretty soon. What's that -- the Rockies still have Todd Helton? Sounds like Atkins better not buy a home in Denver just yet.

The Rockies have some nice arms, though Chin Hui-Tsao won't throw again until next year after Tommy John surgery. A big power arm, Tsao has the makings of a pitcher who could succeed in Coors if he can come back from the surgery.

Jason Jennings put together a nice year last season and ended it with 36 strong innings in AA, leading to the belief that he's almost ready to help the major-league club. After 25 more good innings to start the year in AA this season, he was promoted to AAA, where the elevation kicked in. 98 innings and a 5.99 ERA later, the Rockies better hope that Jennings confidence isn't shattered. His walk-to-strikeout ratios are solid but he's giving up a lot of hits, likely a factor of his home park. He hasn't been good on the road, either, so he's clearly not ready for the majors yet, and may need to go back to AA and gain some confidence back. However, the reports out of Denver are that he'll be called up if and when Pedro Astacio is dealt. Parents, hide your children, that won't be pretty.

Jason Young, the #5 pick of the draft out of Stanford, was having a fine season in Salem and could have been bumped to AA soon. Everything about his numbers was solid and the heavy workload he got in college hadn't caught up to him. However, he's currently experiencing shoulder soreness, which will probably lead to surgery. This shouldn't surprise anyone as I watched Young throw 300 pitches in a three-day span while at Stanford two years ago. His arm has been completely abused.

Arizona Diamondbacks:

The D-Backs are normally the first team "experts" mention when they are asked about the most barren farm systems, which qualifies them as a candidate for most underrated in my book. The jewel of the Arizona system is slugging DH/1B/OF Jack Cust. Despite being just 22, Cust is hitting .287 with excellent patience and big time power in AAA, building on a past history of being one of the most patient sluggers in the minors. His defense has always been atrocious but he'll hit enough to compensate for his lead glove. The Diamondbacks aren't in need of a first baseman anytime soon, so it is very possible that Cust could get traded.

Brad Cresse tore up A-ball last year after being a fifth-round pick out of LSU. His numbers are down in AA this year, but as a 22-year old catcher, Arizona won't complain about a patient catcher who hits for some power. Cresse may never be a star, but he's pretty close to being a decent major-league backstop. To read about Alex Cintron, go read my comments on Juan Uribe and ignore the parts about Coors Field. Another "top prospect" who just can't hit the baseball, Cintron is destined to be a utility infielder. To steal a line from Dave Paisley, for Cintron that would be utility with an F.

Now we get to the empty part of the D-Backs' organization: pitching. John Patterson has major-league stuff, is twenty-two years old, and just needs a little work on his control to be a good major-league starter. The problem is he won't be working on anything until next year as he underwent Tommy John surgery and may not pitch again until next May or June.

Among the healthy, Chris Capuano and Jose Valverde are the only two worth really keeping a close eye on. Capuano had a nice professional debut in A-ball after being an eighth-round pick out of Duke in '99, but has struggled a bit in AA El Paso this season. He is still showing flashes of talent with a 121 strikeouts in 116 innings, but his control (59 walks) needs work and he's giving up way too many hits. He does pitch in the Texas League, so survival is more of a goal than success.

I had the chance to watch Valverde pitch at the Futures Game a few weeks ago. He has a great slider to compliment a nice moving fastball. He has struck out 72 batters in 42 innings in AA, but 29 walks show that he's got a lot of work to do on harnessing his pitches. If he does, he could be a devastating left-handed setup man.

Next week, I'll wrap up the NL West with great news for San Diego and despair and depression for Dodgers and Giants fans. At least you have each other, right guys?

about the author

David Cameron would like to stress that when he says a prospect has "tools," he doesn't mean that said player has some sort of congenital surplus plumbing. Ask what he means by "do the little things well" at dac@strikethree.com.