AL Rookie Roundup

Jason Michael Barker

Welcome back to the Rookie Roundup, your lookie at all things both rookie and cookie. Through no fault of yours, I took the month of July off in terms of covering these first-year players. The good news is that there's now roughly two months of new data to look at, and we're also getting away from those dreaded small samples. Without further ado...

I have a feeling that even in a stronger rookie class, Ichiro would have had the AL Rookie of the Year award pretty much locked up by now due to the inherent hype surrounding him and his club. In a relatively weak rookie class, he'd probably still win the award even if he was hit by a truck tomorrow -- All this despite a fairly pedestrian .335/.365/.459 line.

Of course, the batting average is flashy, as are his 38 steals in 46 attempts. He's no longer on pace to break George Sisler's single-season hit records, but the 237 he is on pace for is nothing to sneeze at. And at this point I probably don't have to tell you about his glove and strong throwing arm. If there's anything to worry about, it was his .268/.308/.438 month of July, which included more strikeouts (11) than the two prior months combined.

Have opposing pitchers figured him out? I get to see him pretty much every game, and he certainly swung (and missed) at more bad balls in July than he did at the start of the season. For all the talk of his aggressiveness, Ichiro could one heck of a hitter if he were just a bit more patient. In any event, watching how pitchers approach him from at-bat to at-bat is quite entertaining.

After three months of being quite the productive shortstop, Anaheim's David Eckstein fell flat in July -- .239/.286/.326 -- and his walk rate fell off as well. In fact, his walk rate on the season (33 in 389 at-bats) has fallen below the 10% threshold. That's not a good sign for any player, let alone who doesn't contribute much in the way of power with his bat. Eckstein's walk rates were good in his minor league career, and he posted a .415 OBP over four seasons. He's always been a second baseman, so I wonder if perhaps he's worn down from playing shortstop all year.

Last time, I commented that C.C. Sabathia's strikeout rate was rather low for a guy with his stuff. Since then he's taken that criticism to heart, upping his K-rate and lowering his ERA to boot. After fanning 28 in 30.2 innings to go along with a 4.11 ERA in June, Sabathia was even better in July, posting 42 strikeouts in 35 innings with a 2.38 ERA. Over those two months, he allowed just 43 hits in 65.2 innings. Not too shabby.

If there's anything to be concerned about with Sabathia, it's his walk rate -- 63 in 115 innings so far, or nearly five per innings. So far he's gotten away with it because he doesn't allow many hits or homers, and those strikeouts are good at stranding runners. To their credit, the Indians have only let their top prospect throw 95.4 pitches per game, and he's only been over 120 once.

Here are some ERA's: 2.49, 3.41, 5.06, 7.91. Not a pretty progression, eh? Those are Chris Michalak's ERA's by month, running from April to July. It has gotten so bad, in fact, that Michalak has lost his job in Toronto's starting rotation. His season numbers -- 4.32 ERA, 117 hits, 46 walks and 55 strikeouts in 108.1 innings -- aren't bad for a back-of-the-rotation starter, though his demise over the past two months is troubling.

Michalak doesn't have great stuff and he doesn't overpower batters, so his success rest precariously on his ability to limit walks, something he didn't do in June or July. At his age (he'll be 31 in January) he probably doesn't have many more shots at being a starter, but my guess is that he'll land on his feet in someone's bullpen next season.

That brings us to the curious case of Alfonso Soriano. Is he just an overrated hack, or is he really just a young player holding his own and struggling to develop? For the first two months of the season, as he drew a grand total of three walks, I was inclined to believe the former. Then came June, when Soriano drew nine(!) walks and posted a .347 OBP, quite respectable for a middle infielder. Had he finally turned the corner? No -- back to five walks in July, and his season OBP is .303.

He obviously has some power for a middle infielder, as evidenced by his 25 doubles and 12 homers, but his refusal to walk is holding him back in a big way. What's in store for the future? On the one hand, the Yankees are a pretty good organization when it comes to valuing walks. But on the other, Soriano looks like a guy who strikes out too much to be a someone who has solid walk totals in his future.

Boston 3B Shea Hillenbrand doesn't walk either -- in fact, he's an even worse case the Soriano. Soriano's strong July, in which he walked nine times, represents more walks than Hillenbrand has coaxed all season. He's also three years older and plays an offensive position, so his chances of ever helping the Red Sox are somewhere between slim and none, and getting narrower all the time.

about the author

Speaking of slim and none, Jason Michael Barker once had hopes of making the majors. Let jmb@strikethree.com know that his 45 MPH fastball just wouldn't cut it, nor would his projected .034 OBP. Still, we bet he'd walk more than Shea Hillenbrand...

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