NL Rookie Roundup

Jason Michael Barker

Welcome back, boys and girls, to another edition of the Rookie Roundup. Last week I took a look at the top rookies in the American League, and if you were around back then you probably recall that it's a pretty weak class. If you weren't around last week, follow the magic link, get caught up with the popular people, and then head back here.

Back? Good. The good news is that the NL's group is much stronger. To start off I'd like to mention a few new names from the National League before diving back into the regular cast of characters. One is a name I should have mentioned last time, and the other two are guys who were called up rather recently. One is an outfielder and the other two are pitchers. One is from the NL East, the other from the Central. One likes cheese pizza, the other two... you get the idea.

The guy I should have mentioned last time is Houston's Roy Oswalt. In general, when I write about young pitchers it's pretty much the same thing: "His strikeout rate isn't as high as you'd like from a guy with such good stuff, and he needs to cut down his walks as well." Not so with Oswalt, who has fanned nearly one batter per inning and boasts a stellar 4.7:1 K:BB ratio (89.2 innings, 84 K's, 18 BB's). Throw in his 83 hits allowed and it adds up to a fine 3.41, and he's actually pitched better at Enron Field than on the road. The Astros are cool in that they don't have a bias against short right-handers like some teams do. Oswalt is listed at 6-0, as are Octavio Dotel and top prospect Tim Redding. If a guy can pitch, who cares how tall he is?

Staying in the Central, Cincinnati made room for their top prospect, Adam Dunn, by trading away Michael Tucker and Alex Ochoa last month. Dunn began the year at AA, where he pounded opposing pitching to the tune of .343/.449/.664, showing both power and a great walk rate. After moving up to AAA he was so overmatched that he slipped to .329/.441/.676 with 20 homers in 210 at-bats. He has more than held his own since being promoted to the majors, hitting .267/.400/.523 with 18 walks and five homers in 86 at-bats, and at just 21 years of age he could easily develop more power as he continues to fill out his 6-6 frame. Scary.

The final newcomer is Philly's Brandon Duckworth, just up from AAA where he went 13-2 with 2.63 ERA in 22 games. Duckworth was more than just a gaudy won-loss record, however, as he allowed just 122 hits in 147 innings with 36 walks and 150 strikeouts. So far in the majors, he's 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA over 13 innings. Two reasons for caution -- the seven walks in those 13 innings, and the fact that he's averaged 113 pitches per start thus far.

In June, I mentioned Bud Smith of the Cardinals as a final thought to close out the column. He had made one start and two relief appearances at the time, but little did I know he was on his way back to the minors for about a month. Since his return on July 16 he's been stellar, posting a 2.81 ERA in five starts, with nice peripherals: 32 innings, 26 hits, 8 walks and 19 strikeouts. Even better for the 21-year old, he's only been over 100 pitches once all year, a 109-pitch outing against the Cubs on July 26. The only knock on the left-hander at this point is that his fastball tops out in the 89-91 range. So far so good, though.

Milwaukee's Ben Sheets, US Olympic hero and many people's pre-season pick for Rookie of the Year honors, was cruising through his rookie season quite nicely until about a week ago when the Braves roughed him up for nine earned runs on eleven hits in 5.1 innings. Turns out Sheets has a sore right shoulder, and while it's unclear how long the shoulder has been bothering him, it might help to explain his 0-5 record and 8.58 ERA in his last six starts. The Brewers would be wise to be extremely careful with Sheets, because the last time they had something this good (remember young Cal Eldred?) they screwed it up rather royally.

Back to St. Louis for a moment, where Albert Pujols has rebounded from a down month of July. Well, "down" only by his own standards, as there are clubs in MLB who would take a .241/.333/.460 line from their third baseman. It was by far his worst month of the year, the only in which his batting average was below .330, his OBP below .400 and his slugging below .560. He's currently riding a 13-game hitting streak and batting a robust .413/.471/.826 during August. He's hitting .330 and is on pace for 40 homers and well over 100 RBI's. Rookie of the Year? You bet.

Finally, I feel compelled to mention Philadelphia's Jimmy Rollins, if only because I've been hyping him so much all season. He's hitting .274, which isn't so bad. He's on pace for 30 doubles, 14 triples and 14 homers. And his stolen bases? He's 37 of 39 at the moment. He gets high marks for his defense and scrappy play. All that said, his plate discipline is terrible. His walk rate, which at 29 in 478 at-bats falls below the 10% threshold, wouldn't be so terrible if he wasn't also striking out so much -- 81 K's in that number of at-bats is awful for a non-power hitter.

I still like Rollins because he's so young (he'll be 23 in November), but he really needs to tighten up his command of the strikezone. He didn't walk much in the minors, but he was right around the 10% mark, and he didn't strike out much either.

I know I already said "finally," but this is it, I promise. Regarding the Phillies: I'm not sure why they're messing around with Scott Rolen, who has the potential to be the best player at his position for the next several years. His current contract is up at the end of the season, but he doesn't have enough service time for to be eligible for free agency so he'll be up for arbitration. If things between Rolen and the Phillies are as bad as they seem, some smart team out there should help the Phills out by taking Rolen off their hands.

about the author

Jason Michael Barker won't be 23 until September, but believe us when we tell you there's no chance for his plate discipline. Suggest he might try his hand at a cheese plate instead when you write to jmb@strikethree.com.

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