Prospect Report:
Looking Peachy

David Cameron

Welcome to the stomping grounds, literally, of the Atlanta Braves, the NL East. If you look at this division in the '90s, you'd swear Ted Turner was funneling some Superstation funds to the Mets, Phillies, Marlins, and Expos in exchange for their giving up every April 2nd. The Phillies have finally rebelled this year, but will probably fall short, and I'm not optimistic about any of the four doormats' abilities to catch Atlanta anytime soon.

Atlanta Braves

Adam Wainwright leads the charge of more young arms into the Braves' rotation. He just turned 20 years old and handled himself very well in Macon. His 184 strikeouts in 164 Innings tell you about his stuff. He throws in the 90s and has an outstanding changeup to go with an improving curve. His control was fine and will likely improve as he climbs the ladder. Look at him to bust out in AA next year.

Matt Belisle lost the year to arm problems, but still has the talent to have a good career. He was outstanding last year and his recovery is going well. Look for him to bounce big back in 2002.

Tim Spooneybarger lit up AAA with a .71 ERA and an outstanding strikeout ratio at 21 years of age. He's getting a look this month and may make the Braves bullpen next year. Hopefully he avoids the John Rocker mold for successful relief development.

The Braves also promoted 19-year-old phenom Wilson Betemit. Most organizations would refer to him as their Shortstop of the Future, but the Braves' Shortstop of the Current is only 21. Betemit could handle SS, but will likely switch to third base. As a hitter, scouts gush. Bat speed, quick hands, power; there isn't anything Betemit doesn't have -- besides patience. He's a free swinger and the Braves are going to have to convince him to be more patient if he's going to become the superstar they hope he is. Look for some early struggles if he's given a job before 2003.

He doesn't get Betemit's hype, but it's 50-50 as to whether Kelly Johnson will have a better career. He's also 19, and had an amazing year in Macon. He hit .289/.404/.513 with 71 walks in 415 ABs. His patience is obvious, but he also managed 23 home runs and 46 extra-base hits. Oh yea, he plays shortstop too. Possibly the most underrated prospect in baseball, Kelly Johnson has a fantastic future.

Corey Aldridge gets more organizational press than Johnson, but that's more an indictment on the Braves' focus on tools than it is a recommendation for Aldridge. He is wreckless at the plate and has never performed like his "tools" say he will. Another poor year in Greenville has pretty much ended his prospect status in my book.

Philadelphia Phillies

Brett Myers will join the Phillies' rotation soon. He more than held his own in AA at age 20, posting a good ERA and winning games. I have a few reservations, however. His K/IP rate wasn't quite 1:1, which I would have liked to see. He gave up 21 HR's and 1 H/IP. His numbers are still impressive for someone his age in AA, and he should be a really good pitcher, but I just have a few lingering doubts.

Brad Baisley is an enigma. He's 6'9 and doesn't throw all that hard, doesn't strike out many batters, has good control, and gives up a lot of hits. He's John Halama placed on the rack. He was hammered in AA and I'm skeptical about his major league future unless he grows into his body and starts throwing his stuff by people.

Ryan Madson has had a mixed year in Clearwater. Another just-turned-21-year-old, he had a 3.90 ERA but a K:BB just over 2:1. He gave up a LOT of hits, but that could be due to circumstances out of his control. He only allowed four home runs and that's a big positive. Madson's mix of three good pitches and solid command should allow him to get major league hitters out. He just wouldn't be the first with his skill set to fail.

The Phillies have a big decision to make next spring. Marlon Byrd could replace the dismal Doug Glanville in center and give them a huge upgrade offensively, but their defense would suffer a bit. Byrd can flat-out hit. He's 24, but he missed two years due to playing football at Georgia Tech. He mashed AA pitching this year, showed good patience and power, can run, and has a good feel at the plate. He's a legit big-league hitter.

Anderson Machado continued to show good patience and speed and a total lack of power. His 18 extra-base hits make me wonder if he'll be able to turn on major-league fastballs, but his intelligence at the plate gives him a shot. With Jimmy Rollins in Philadelphia, he probably will move to second base or be traded.

After Chase Utley homered about 15 feet in front of me at the Futures Game, I commented that he was one of the more disappointing prospects there. An odd statement, but his bat looked slow and he just hit a bad pitch. He's got a big hole in his swing and can't lay off pitches out the strike zone. He has power and can play a nice second base, but his impatience and his bat speed will keep him from becoming a good major leaguer.

Florida Marlins

Any discussion about Marlins prospects has to begin with Josh Beckett. He dominated the Prospect Ten just like he did AA hitters. He throws in the high 90s with a world-class curve, great control, and a potential plus change. If he stays healthy, he'll win a Cy Young or three.

The Marlins really like Wes Anderson, but he has to count this as a lost year. After really struggling, he was diagnosed with a torn labrum and missed the rest of the year. He has a lot of talent, but his health is a big concern. Rob Henkel is also coming back from injuries and has demonstrated the stuff that made him so good at UCLA. A full 2002 season will tell us whether he's all the way back, but he's got a large upside.

Abraham Nunez was the PTBNL from Arizona in the Matt Mantei deal, and has off-the-board tools. He is very patient, perhaps too much so. He walked 83 times but struck out 155 times in only 467 AB's. He's not making consistent contact, but his combination of speed, patience, and power should lead him to the Marlins' outfield within the next few years.

Adrian Gonzalez projected he would hit .380 in the Midwest League this year. In that respect, his .312 is disappointing, but for a kid just out of high school in full-season ball, its very good. He doesn't walk a lot but has more power than most scouts thought and makes contact well. He's a great defensive first baseman as well.

Florida thinks they may have another Alex Rodriguez in Miguel Cabrera, a young tall shortstop with a lot of projectability. He hasn't shown great power yet, but he's walking more than would be expected for someone with his physical tools. Watch out for him to really blossom into a special talent, especially if he can stay at short.

Montreal Expos

Donnie Bridges was hailed as the next in the line of Expos' young arms despite a mediocre performance in 2000. He's been dreadful this year and ended up on the DL with a sore shoulder. He's probably got some serious arm problems and his future is in doubt.

Justin Wayne's debut looks impressive. He was 9-2 with a 2.62 ERA in AA. However, his K:BB and K:IP ratios are mediocre and reveal that he's probably not ready for more established hitters. He threw a lot of pitches at Stanford, so the Expos need to be careful with his arm.

Josh Girdley has a lot of pure talent but struggled in his 29 innings in Clinton. Like both Wayne and Bridges, health is a concern. If the 21-year-old can stay healthy, the Expos may have a solid left-handed starter, but there is serious concern about his arm and he's not in a protective environment.

Brad Wilkerson has just walked and hit doubles since getting drafted by the Expos. He is a lot like Edgar Martinez, and that's a great compliment. He really should get an everyday job with Montreal next year and should have a long career as a very productive, patient doubles machine.

Scott Hodges has had a disappointing season showing little power and no patience. His appearance in this column highlights the lack of depth in the Expos system.

Brandon Phillips has a lot of physical skills but looks like two different players between A and AA. He showed good patience but only moderate power in A-ball before being promoted, where he started driving the ball and forgot how to take ball four. If he can establish a mix of both patience and power, he'll be an impact player.

New York Mets

Pat Strange has been hyped as a top prospect without any real evidence to support it. He has average stuff, mediocre command, and below-average performance. He's just 21 and could develop, but at this point he's no closer to the majors than I am. On the other hand, Grant Roberts has been labeled a disappointment, and he certainly wasn't great in AAA, but he showed flashes in the three games I saw him pitch in. He has a good curveball but needs to spot his fastball better. His K:BB ratio was good and with a little seasoning, he could be a good reliever.

Jae Seo has great control with six walks in 45 innings in AAA, but his K:IP is alarmingly low. He's recovering from an elbow injury and reportedly could add a few MPH to his fastball, which could help. At this point, he's worth watching, but far from a sure thing.

Alex Escobar has done the weird overrated to underrated switch in a year. He's not the all-star franchise center fielder everyone wanted him to be. He is, however, a legitimately great defensive center fielder with power. He doesn't walk and makes next to no contact, but if he hits .260 and slugs .500 while winning a gold glove, he'll help his team win games.

Jose Reyes showed good power and hit .300 as a shortstop in Columbia at a young age. He needs to be more patient, but he's got a good approach at the plate and the managers in his league were very high on him. His teammate, Enrique Cruz, didn't hit for the average that Reyes did but showed better patience and more power. He is older and more developed but had a nice season nonetheless. I'd like to see him get a shot against AA pitching next year and see how he does. He's intriguing, for sure.

about the author

David Cameron recently scouted several of the boy bands at a charity softball tournament. Ask him which member of O-Town is a five-tool player, then guffaw because you said "tool," at dac@strikethree.com.