Prospect Report:
Third Watch

David Cameron

I can't come up with a zippy introduction this week (just imagining John Rocker and Carl Everett on the same team ought to be enough mirth for our readers. -ed.), so let's just go right to the column.

I've written about Hank Blalock and Sean Burroughs on more than one occasion, so I'll save the words and you can follow the link. They're both great, they're both ready, and they're clearly the two best offensive prospects in the game.

Interestingly enough, Drew Henson probably has as much potential as either Blalock or Burroughs, but ranks behind them because he simply has further to go in his development. Despite focusing on being the starting QB at the University of Michigan, he managed to put up terrific numbers for a 20-year-old in AA in 2000. After giving up football, he struggled mightily in AAA, walking only nine times and posting a .250 on-base percentage. He struggled with a few injuries and clearly was overmatched and rusty.

That really doesn't do much to dim Henson's light in my eyes, however. He's got a tremendous uppercut swing that generates a lot of power, and he'll hit 30 home runs a year in the majors without any problem. The big question is whether he'll walk enough to keep his OBP respectable, but he showed great patience in the AFL, drawing 17 walks in 121 at-bats. He's a smart kid and I don't have any problems seeing him improving at the plate and becoming an all-star hitter.

The Rangers are going to have an interesting problem later this year if Mark Teixeira handles AA pitching. He's the most polished college hitter to come out in a long time and he should be ready for a major-league spot by 2003. With Hank Blalock, a superior defender, above him it's questionable where T-Rex will play.

He could be moved to first base with Carlos Pena shifting to the outfield, Teixeira or Blalock could move to the outfield, or they've even talked about putting Blalock at second base. In the end, it won't really matter, because they're all going to hit and hit well. Just find spots for them in the lineup.

It's amazing what a change in organizations can do for you. A year ago Eric Hinske was traded to the A's for Miguel Cairo and Scott Chiasson, discarded as a 4-A first baseman who couldn't hit enough to be useful in the majors. He spent the season playing third base for Sacramento, improved his defense, and found a fan in new Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi.

After another trade, Hinske's going into spring training as the Blue Jays' starting third baseman. He's the typical Oakland-type player in that he gets on base, hits for power, and is marginal defensively. He may struggle early while adjusting to life in the majors, but I don't see any reason he shouldn't be an average third baseman pretty soon.

David Kelton is one of those guys who I should like. He more than held his own in AA at age 21, showing good power and having an acceptable walk rate. Call it a gut feeling though, and I'm not sold that Kelton is going to make it. Maybe it's the ghost of Kevin Orie, but I'll label Kelton as the most likely to fail.

Tony Blanco is a scouts dream. He has a cannon arm, is quick defensively, and hits monstrous home runs. His main problem is the one that gets most slugging teenagers: He swings at everything. He drew just 18 walks against 79 strikeouts in A-ball, and I've got serious concerns if Blanco is started at AA next year.

Blanco has to be more patient and lay off the curveballs that he can't hit, or more experienced pitchers will eat him up. He's got a ton of potential though, and if he can make some strides in his approach at the plate, he could be a very solid player. He's several years away at least.

Morgan Ensberg shouldn't have any problems giving the Astros more than they got from Vinny Castilla this year. He needlessly spent the year in AAA, continuing to just hit like he did the year before. He's not going to be a star, but I think Ensberg will be one of the late bloomers and establish himself as a nice player.

The Dodgers signed Willy Aybar to a lot of fanfare and I think he's about ready to live up to the hype. After spending two years in short-season ball, he's ready for A-ball next year. He's shown good plate discipline, drawing just 43 walks against 67 strikeouts as an 18-year-old, and there's little doubt that his body will produce power that he hasn't shown yet. Aybar is a name that could take a big step forward next year.

One of my favorite prospects, Garrett Atkins is going to get his shot to play third base. He started off at the hot corner, than got moved to first base in a case of Todd Helton amnesia. Now that the Rockies have remembered that Atkins can't ever make the team as a first baseman, he's going back to third, and he should hit enough to be valuable there.

People knock Atkins' power, but he slugged .471 behind 42 doubles last season. As he grows into his body, those gap shots will clear the wall and his patience should allow him to be a John Olerud or Jeff Cirillo-type player, but without the great defense. He's got limited potential because his swing isn't tailored for a lot of power, but he does things well that help win games, and the Rockies should be happy that they gave him a chance at third again.

David Cameron is still growing into his body, and soon those Gap shots will clear Macy's. Write for an explanation of that joke at dac@strikethree.com.