Surprise, Surprise

Jason Michael Barker

Last week I looked at a pair of clubs in the National League East who were winning despite, not because of, the moves they made this winter. This week we'll stay in the east but move over to the American League, where... Did you have the Red Sox pegged for 111 wins coming out of spring training? Be honest, now.

Unless you had some sort of inside information or are a rabid fan, the answer is probably a resounding "nah, not really." But like they say, that's why they play the games. Which reminds me of a joke I heard once: Did you hear that the Red Sox are replacing the grass at Fenway with parchment? Management decided the team always plays better on paper.

Ba-dum-bum.

After taking a shot at Boston it seems only fair to begin with the Red Sox, who as of this writing have the best record in all the land at 37-17. It's not that the Sox weren't expected to be a good club, because a quick glance at their roster reveals enough talent to finish at .500 even with Jose Offerman as the designated hitter. There were big questions surrounding the team, however: a new manager, the health of Pedro Martinez, which Johnny Damon would show up, will Nomar Garciaparra bounce back, who would step up in the rotation, and why in the world is Carlos Baerga on the roster?

If you think about it, the Red Sox were supposed to do this last season. Pedro Martinez was still Pedro, and coming off back-to-back years in which opposing hitters didn't have a prayer at the plate. Nomar Garciaparra had hit .372 the year prior and looked a viable MVP candidate. They had signed Manny Ramirez, who was going to spend the summer attacking the Green Monster. Carl Everett had hit 34 homers the year before, and while he was a bit crazy, he wasn't yet off his rocker. Hideo Nomo was going to be the number two starter Pedro had always lacked. And Sports Illustrated even picked them to overturn the curse and finally win the World Series.

It didn't work out that way, of course. Pedro was injured again and limited to 18 starts, leaving Nomo the ace of the staff. Ramirez crushed the ball, but played in only 142 games due to injury. Catcher Jason Varitek got off to the best start of his career, but missed the final four months of the season after breaking his elbow. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, Nomar Garciaparra appeared in just 21 games after missing both the start and finish of the season with a wrist injury.

Perhaps taking a page from the 2001 Seattle Mariners -- a club which left spring training with low expectations for the season but wound up winning 116 games -- the Red Sox are doing this year what they were supposed to do last year. More than that, they're winning despite a number of things going decidedly not their way.

Manny Ramirez hasn't played in a month since injuring his hand, and has yet to resume swinging a bat. Off-season acquisition Dustin Hermanson hasn't thrown a pitch this season and is still trying to recover from a groin injury. Tony Clark, expected to solidify things over at first base, has been horrible at the plate in posting an OPS of.553 with just two homers.

How have they done it? For starters, Derek Lowe has been perhaps the best pitcher in the American League so far this season. Pedro Martinez hasn't been his old dominant self, but he's still 7-0 with a 3.18 ERA and is averaging better than a strikeout per inning. Even Frank Castillo and John Burkett have been respectable as well, while Ugueth Urbina, Casey Fossum and Tim Wakefield have provided stellar relief. It all adds up to a 3.69 team ERA, good for second in the AL.

Offensively, the Red Sox are fourth in the league in runs scored behind the work of three guys: Garciaparra, Ramirez and an extremely surprising Shea Hillenbrand. Hillenbrand, who posted a .682 OPS last season while walking just 13 times in 468 at-bats, has doubled his walk rate this season and is reaping the benefits of his newfound plate discipline -- a .315/.357/.535 line and a pace for 31 homers. Whether he can keep this up remains to be seen, but what he's done so far this year is a far cry from the empty batting averages of his past.

Finally, a quick note about the Blue Jays, who fired manager Buck Martinez Monday after weeks of speculation about said firing. I don't think this came as a surprise to anyone -- while the Jays weren't expected to win the AL East this year, they were expected to be better than their 21-33 record (and that's after winning four straight). Throw in that new general manager J.P. Ricciardi probably wants to bring in his own guy after the season (Oakland A's bench coach Ken Macha, unless the A's fire Art Howe and hire Macha themselves), and Martinez wasn't long for Toronto.

Offensively the Blue Jays are in the middle of the pack, despite high marks in both walks and homers. The real problems are on the other side of the ball, however, where Toronto has a league-worst 5.17 ERA and 225 walks in 487 innings. There are a number of young pitchers on the staff -- Brandon Lyon, Justin Miller, Luke Prokopec, Corey Thurman -- so hopefully new skipper Carlos Tosca picked up some patience in the 1759 games he managed in the minors.

about the author

Jason Michael Barker claims to have invented the double steal. We don't believe him either, so you're free to dispute that claim at jmb@strikethree.com.

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