NL Rookie Roundup

Jason Michael Barker

Welcome to another edition of the Rookie Roundup, this week featuring the top youngsters in the Senior Circuit. In case you missed last week's AL rookies, pop over and check it out. We'll wait for you, I promise.

Back? Good.

We begin with Chicago's Mark Prior, who has been every bit as good as advertised this season. The so-called "Greatest College Pitcher Ever" has yet to disappoint, going 4-2 with a 3.41 ERA in his first 11 starts since dominating in the minors. His peripheral numbers are very good as well: 49 hits, 25 walks and 78 strikeouts in 66 innings, and opposing batters have managed just a .288 on-base percentage against him. Basically, there's nothing no to like here. Prior has never had any arm problems, his mechanics are smooth and easy, and he's just 21 years old.

As an aside, if you're able you should check out the Cubs-Phillies game on Wednesday night. Prior is starting for Chicago, and making his major league debut for Philadelphia will be righty Brett Myers, who was 9-6 with a 3.59 ERA at AAA before his promotion with 121 hits, 20 walks and 97 strikeouts in 128 innings. Looks like a pretty good matchup of young hurlers.

Having activated Ken Griffey Jr. this week, the Reds think they finally have the outfield they've been dreaming of for the past year or so. The right fielder in that equation is Austin Kearns, who since the trade of Juan Encarnacion should no longer have to worry about being sent back to the minors. Not that his performance hasn't justified his roster spot -- Kearns was hitting .277/.374/.445 through Monday, with 34 walks in 256 at-bats. He doesn't walk quite as much as teammate Adam Dunn and hasn't shown as much power either, but at 22 he's still a very good hitter in the making. Now if Junior can just stay healthy...

After missing the month of June with a pesky blister problem, Florida's Josh Beckett showed signs of rust in his first start back last week, allowing six earned runs (including two homers) in five innings. He shook off that rust Sunday, however, and turned in perhaps the best start of his major league career -- six innings, three hits, no runs and twelve strikeouts in a 4-0 win over the Expos. The start lowered his ERA to a respectable 4.04, and his peripheral numbers are similar to Prior's: 64.2 innings, 50 hits, 26 walks and 70 strikeouts with a .285 OBP against. The blisters are a mild annoyance, but shouldn't be a long-term concern in the way that shoulder or elbow problems would be. If anything they'll keep his workload down this year, a net benefit in the grand scheme of things.

After going through a rough spell in June, LA's Kazuhisa Ishii has a 2.29 ERA in three July starts. At 12-5 with a 3.31 ERA and 109 strikeouts in 114.1 innings, he has to be viewed as a success so far. Still, I can't help but think all his walks will eventually catch up with him. Ishii is walking close to six batters per nine innings, the worst such figure for any major league starter. Hideo Nomo was wild his rookie year, but not even he walk this many batters. In any event, all those strikeouts and walks add up to a ton of pitches, meaning Ishii isn't pitching very deep into games.

Montreal's Brad Wilkerson really isn't a center fielder, but with Cliff Floyd in one corner and Vladimir Guerrero in the other, he's the best choice the Expos have right now. What he gives away on defense, however, he makes up for with the bat, as his .281/.380/.462 line is very good for the position. Wilkerson is a very patient hitter, having drawn 47 walks in 303 at-bats this year; at AAA Ottawa last year he drew 60 in just 223 at-bats. With that sort of patience and his good doubles power but lack of great speed, Wilkerson may slot best as a #2 hitter in the majors.

Despite generally mediocre numbers -- 118 hits, 20 homers and 60 strikeouts in 119.2 innings -- and junkballing stuff, Pittsburgh's Josh Fogg has managed a very respectable 4.06 ERA this season. How does he do it? For starters, he has only walked 34 hitters this season, or roughly 2.5 per nine innings. Second, he has held right-handed batters to a paltry .225/.299/.381 line, or roughly what Tsuyoshi Shinjo is hitting this season. Of course, lefties are hitting him to the tune of .296/.344/.524 (roughly Nomar Garciaparra), so Fogg is only as good as the number of Shinjos in the opposing batting order.

The Padres have used a number of young pitchers this year, but none has had more success than lefty Oliver Perez. Just 21 and with a mere 23 innings of professional experience above A-ball, San Diego called on Perez in mid-June and he has been surprisingly good. He has electric -- if erratic -- stuff, with 47 strikeouts and 22 walks in 44.2 innings so far. He also has a .214 batting average against and 2.82 ERA, so he must be doing something right. Perez has been particularly effective lately -- in his last three starts, he has combined for 20 innings, 10 hits, 2 runs and 29 strikeouts. If there's one concern here, it's that the Padres have let him throw 108 pitches per start, including a 126-pitch outing on July 7.

Last but not least, San Francisco's Ryan Jenson has put up Fogg-like numbers in 110.1 innings this season: 113 hits, 13 homres, 38 walks, 68 strikeouts and a 4.16 ERA. Unlike Fogg, however, Jensen doesn't sport a large platoon split with righties posting a .735 OPS and lefties a .787 mark. Of the two, I'm more skeptical of Jensen, because at least he's been dominating righties, while Jensen has been hit fairly well by hitters from both sides of the plate. He's also averaging less than six innings per start, though it's worth noting that the Giants have gotten very good bullpen work this season (four pitchers with at least 42 innings have an ERA of three or better; three of those have ERA's under two).

about the author

Jason Michael Barker's writing has never been described as "both electric and erratic." Tell him you were thinking more like "subtle yet squishy" when you write jmb@strikethree.com.

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