The Problem with Predicting

Jason Michael Barker

I suppose I should have learned my lesson last year, after my first round picks went 1-3 and the one series I did get right (Seattle over Cleveland) could have been correctly predicted by a trained rhesus monkey. But who knew Houston's starting pitching situation was so bad that even Atlanta's weak offense would prevail? Who knew the A's would fall apart at the hands of the playoff-tested Yankees? Who knew Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling would turn into a modern day Spahn and Sain (and pray for rain)?

No matter. Undeterred by my horrible showing last season, I fearlessly made these predictions in this space last week: Oakland over Minnesota, New York over Anaheim, Arizona over St. Louis and San Francisco over Atlanta.

Oakland? Yeah, well, I've got nothing to say there other than that Art Howe should have juggled his rotation such that Barry Zito started twice instead of Tim Hudson. Everybody knows the Twins struggled against left-handed pitching this season. Well, that and Miguel Tejada went a horrific 3-for-21 in the series. If that's the American League MVP, I'm a lugnut.

As for the Yankees, I think it's safe to say we all underestimated the power of the Rally Monkey. Seriously, what I think we all underestimated -- and by "we" I mean "I" -- is how much New York's starting pitching has aged in the past year. Roger Clemens, Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte and David Wells were all knocked around something fierce in the series, while the only guy on the staff who had any extended success was Orlando Hernandez (Mariano Rivera only pitched an inning, so he doesn't count). Given the opportunity to do it over again, you think Joe Torre might have started El Duque in place of Pettitte or Wells?

It's also worth noting that for all the praise their "pitching and defense, make productive outs and put the ball in play" style has received in the past week, the Angels knocked out 19 extra base hits over four games. They may have played small ball during the regular season, but this was a regular mashing, pure and simple, albeit it entirely unexpected.

When I picked Arizona over St. Louis, I noted that while the two teams were relatively evenly matched elsewhere, the Diamondbacks had the offensive edge due to a considerable advantage in their walk rate. What I was getting at here was that while Arizona scored only 32 runs more than St. Louis this season, the difference in their respective offenses was actually much greater.

I missed two things in that analysis. First, the Cardinals played the majority of the season without Scott Rolen, a pretty good hitter who replaced a not-so-good hitter in Placido Polanco. Second, the Diamondbacks played the majority of the season with Luis Gonzalez and Craig Counsell, neither of whom were available in the post-season.

Throw in two more things -- Eurbiel Durazo reportedly refusing to the play the outfield, leaving Bob Brenly with even less offense, and the fact that the Cardinals are a vastly superior defensive team -- and it really shouldn't be a shock that they won this series. I'm surprised that it was over so quickly given the presence of Johnson and Schilling, but looking back on it now the outcome seems perfectly reasonable.

That leaves only the Atlanta-San Francisco series, meaning that heading into Monday night there was a very good chance I might take the proverbial golden sombrero in the first round. Needless to say, I was pulling pretty hard for the Giants, hoping they could salvage some small part of my pride this fall.

Perhaps spurred on by the presence of the Barry Bonds bobblehead doll sitting on my coffee table while I watched the game, Bonds was able to overcome the media's incessant harping on his past post-season failures (could we see the clip from the 1992 NLCS one more time, please?) and lead his Giants to victory by going two-for-three with a homer and two runs scored.

It helped that I got the outcome I wanted, but it really was a great game. There was just enough offense (a Bonds homer is always enough offense for me), some very good relief work, several outstanding defensive plays and plenty of drama at the end. Throw in wacky comments by Tim McCarver -- I know I'm not the only one who heard him let out a girlish giggle when the camera caught J.T. Snow with bubble gum on his nose -- and you're looking at a solid night of entertainment.

While I'm thinking about it, any team thinking of signing Reggie Sanders to be a starting outfielder next season should reconsider. He may just be worn down after a long season, but watching him this week it appears he doesn't have the bat speed to catch up with a good fastball. He still hit lefties pretty well this year, so perhaps it's time he accept a Ron Gant-style role with reduced playing time. Sanders could still help a club out in that capacity.

Moving on, despite the fact that I should have learned my lesson by now, this is the portion of the column where I'm supposed to make my predictions for the American and National League Championship Series. I know what you're saying to yourself right now, "Whatever his picks, I'm off to Vegas with the exact opposites." I don't advocate that sort of thing here (Strikethree is a family site, after all), but on the other hand, it could work.

In the AL, I'll take the Twins over the Angels in the full seven games. This is mostly based on sentiment, because there's just something special about seeing the low-payroll, old-stadium, nearly-contracted Twins stick it to Bud Selig the way they have this season. Why stop now when you're on such a roll? Well, that and I think the longer series will mean increased opportunities for the likes of Johan Santana and Kyle Lohse, either in long relief of an ineffective starter or as an emergency starter. Then there's the fact that the Twins are a better defensive club than the Yankees, particularly up the middle, which should turn a few of those Anaheim hits into regular old outs.

In the NL, despite my desire to see Barry Bonds take his show one more round, I'll go with the well-rounded Cardinals in six. I've doubted them all year for whatever reason, but St. Louis has an extremely solid club on both sides of the ball. Winning their opening series early means extra rest for Woody Williams, not to mention the other members of the team nursing nagging injuries, while the Giants get just one day off after seeing their series go five. In all likelihood Scott Rolen won't be back for the NLCS, but even without him the Cards have enough hitters to get past an often suspect Giants starting rotation.

about the author

Jason Michael Barker is just hoping to break even with his post-season predictions this year. Rain on his parade by reminding him that there are an uneven number of series when you write to jmb@strikethree.com.

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