Off-Season Capsule: NL West

Jason Michael Barker

The National League West was a very strong division in 2002, with three of the top four teams in the league in terms of runs scored and three of the top five in terms of runs allowed. A pretty good three-team race gave way to a very good two-team race late in the year, with the Diamondbacks finally prevailing despite the Giants finishing a blistering 11-1 over their final 12 games. For their trouble, San Francisco earned the wild card spot.

Arizona Diamondbacks
2002 record: 98-64
Runs scored: 819 (1st), Runs allowed: 674 (5th)

Say hello: RHP Manny Aybar, RHP Elmer Dessens
Say goodbye: LHP Brian Anderson, IF Jay Bell, 1B Greg Colbrunn, 1B Erubiel Durazo, RHP Mike Fetters, RHP Rick Helling, C Damian Miller, RHP Mike Morgan, RHP Todd Stottlemyre

The scoop: Despite an aging roster that many predicted to fall flat, Arizona won six more games in 2002 than they did in 2001 with essentially the same club. This off-season brought more changes than last, as the D'Backs let several veterans go rather than keep them around one year (or more) too long. That's a good strategy in general, but overall this is still a club of aging veterans.

With part-timers Colbrunn and Durazo gone to Seattle and Oakland, respectively, Mark Grace and Lyle Overbay will split time at first. The two are similar hitters, though of course Overbay is a dozen years younger; if he winds up having a career like Grace's, the Diamondbacks will be very happy indeed. The other big change is behind the plate, where Damian Miller was cast aside at just the right time -- he turned 32 last October, and catchers don't tend to age well. Elsewhere, Arizona needs to hope Junior Spivy's .301/.389/.476 wasn't a fluke.

The team's biggest addition this winter was third starter Elmer Dessens, who no longer has to be his club's ace. He's not a good bet to repeat last season's 3.03 ERA, but if he can do something between that and his 4.29 career mark, he'll be a very solid #3 behind Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling. With Miguel Batista (4.29 ERA last season) and rookie John Patterson (stellar in five late-season starts) rounding out the rotation, the D'Backs look to be in good shape. The bullpen isn't quite as strong, though a return to form from Matt Mantei would be a big help.

San Francisco Giants
2002 record: 95-66
Runs scored: 783 (3rd), Runs allowed: 616 (2nd)

Say hello: Manager Felipe Alou, 3B Edgardo Alfonzo, 2B Ray Durham, OF Marquis Grissom, LHP Damian Moss, SS Neifi Perez
Say goodbye: Manger Dusty Baker, RHP Manny Aybar, 3B David Bell, OF Shawon Dunston, LHP Aaron Fultz, OF Tom Goodwin, 2B Jeff Kent, OF Kenny Lofton, IF Ramon Martinez, 3B Bill Mueller, RHP Russ Ortiz, OF Reggie Sanders, OF Tsuyoshi Shinjo, RHP Jay Witasick

The scoop: That's quite a bit of change for a team that came within three innings of winning the World Series last year, but it's understandable given the number of free agents they had, including Dusty Baker. On the whole, they've done a good job plugging the holes left by free agency, and have even improved in some areas. The biggest question facing the Giants for 2003 is how the team will respond to new manager Felipe Alou after years of overachieving for Baker.

With two infielders (Jeff Kent, David Bell) heading to greener pastures, the Giants wasted no time in signing Edgardo Alfonzo and Ray Durham, two underappreciated players in this year's free agent class. Alfonzo, assuming he's healthy (and the Giants have a very good medical staff), is a very good hitter who should easily out-hit Bell or mostly replace Kent. The extremely durable Durham, whether he plays second or right field, has some pop, steals bases and will take a walk -- perfect at the top of the order.

Starting pitching was a definite strength last season, but will only remain so if Jason Schmidt stays healthy, Ryan Jensen improves in his second full season, Damian Moss shows last season's 3.42 ERA was no fluke despite less than stellar ratios, Kirk Reuter continues to succeed despite an alarmingly low strikeout rate, and Livan Hernandez improves as much next season as he did from 2001 to 2002. OK, so not all of those things have to happen, though they'd certainly help; the Giants' starters appeared to be in a bit over their heads last season, so some decline is to be expected. With a number of good young starters on the way up, don't be surprised to see someone like Hernandez traded during the season.

Los Angeles Dodgers
2002 record: 92-70
Runs scored: 713 (7th), Runs allowed: 643 (3rd)

Say hello: RHP Wilson Alvarez, LHP Pedro Borbon, OF Chad Hermansen, C Todd Hundley, 1B Fred McGriff, IF Terry Shumpert, OF Daryle Ward
Say goodbye: LHP Omar Daal, OF Marquis Grissom, 2B Mark Grudzielanek, UT Dave Hansen, 3B Tyler Houston, 1B Eric Karros, C Chad Kreuter, LHP Jesse Orosco

The scoop: Picked to finish last in the division by yours truly among others, the Dodgers overachieved under manager Jim Tracy, who so far is proving himself to be a very good manager in terms of getting the most out of his players. Personally, I'm amazed at the performances he got out of the likes of Marquis Grissom, Dave Roberts and Alex Cora. Even more amazing is how many runs they scored despite their home park and having only one real threat (Shawn Green) in the batting order.

The bad news is that the Dodgers return primarily the same hitters, who are nothing but a year older. That's a good thing in the case of Adrian Beltre and Cesar Izturis, but less so for the likes of Green, Brian Jordan and Paul Lo Duca. Winter additions Fred McGriff and Todd Hundley are no spring chickens; that said, McGriff could out-hit the man he's replacing, Eric Karros, with his eyes closed even at age 39. If Beltre finally lives up to expectations and McGriff does indeed improve on Karros while the rest of the hitters stay about the same, the Dodgers will be in decent shape offensively.

With Andy Ashby, Kevin Brown, Kaz Ishii, Hideo Nomo and Odalis Perez, Los Angeles should have plenty of starting pitching -- if they can stay healthy. Ashby is 35 and missed almost the entire 2001 season, while Brown seems perpetually injured and Ishii needs to show there are no ill effects of the line drive he took off his face late in the season. Nomo has always been fairly durable so he's not a huge concern, but Perez more than doubled his career high for innings last season. If healthy, this is a very strong rotation.

Colorado Rockies
2002 record: 73-89
Runs scored: 778 (4th), Runs allowed: 898 (16th)

Say hello: RHP Nelson Cruz, LHP Vic Darensbourg, RHP Rich Garces, SS Jose Hernandez, C Charles Johnson, 2B Pablo Ozuna, RHP Steve Reed, 3B Chris Stynes, OF Preston Wilson
Say goodbye: C Sandy Alomar Jr., C Gary Bennett, RHP Scott Elarton, LHP Mike Hampton, RHP Pete Harnisch, RHP Sean Lowe, LHP Kent Mercker, 2B Jose Ortiz, OF Juan Pierre, 2B Terry Shumpert, 3B Todd Zeile

The scoop: The Rockies finally rid themselves of Mike Hampton's contract, and in their ideal world would have moved Larry Walker and Denny Neagle, too. Walker nearly went to Arizona in exchange for Matt Williams but Williams blocked the deal, while Neagle was rumored in several trades over the winter. For all their moves, it remains to be seen if they'll actually be better off on the field.

Offensively, there's reason for hope. Gone is Juan Pierre, who was absolutely horrific last season despite playing half his game at Coors Field. Taking his place is Preston Wilson, a legitimate 30-30 threat who is still just 28. Gone too is Todd Zeile, replaced by another underrated free agent this winter in Jose Hernandez. The downside to Hernandez is that if there's one park where strikeouts really are worse than other outs, it Coors -- putting the ball in play is a very good thing in Colorado. Charles Johnson should be an upgrade on Sandy Alomar Jr., though that isn't saying much. Simply put, however, finishing anywhere but first in the league in runs scored should be considered a disappointment for this team given their home park.

The Rockies may have finally developed a starting pitcher in Jason Jennings, who won the NL Rookie of the Year award last season. As always, pitchers who strike out a ton of hitters and/or induce ground balls are going to have the most success. Unfortunately for the Rockies, their staff is not blessed with strikeout pitchers. Jennings has the sinker/slider combo to succeed, as does rookie Aaron Cook; ditto relievers Jose Jimenez and Nelson Cruz, though that won't help the starting rotation. It would appear Colorado is moving in the right direction as far as pitching is concerned -- and they're serious about addressing through the draft and player development rather than by signing the likes of Hampton and Neagle again -- but they still have a long way to go.

San Diego Padres
2002 record: 66-96
Runs scored: 662 (14th), Runs allowed: 815 (14th)

Say hello: OF Brady Anderson, C Gary Bennett, 2B Homer Bush, RHP Francisco Cordova, RHP Luther Hackman, UT Dave Hansen, 2B Mark Loretta, RHP Charles Nagy, LHP Jesse Orosco, RHP Jay Witasick, RHP Jaret Wright
Say goodbye: SS Cesar Crespo, SS Deivi Cruz, RHP Matt DeWitt, RHP Jeremy Fikac, OF Ron Gant, LHP Mike Holtz, OF Ray Lankford, RHP Brett Tomko

The scoop: I'll admit it -- I picked this sad-sack club to win the division last season, albeit with the caveat that I might have been a year early. A year early? Try two or three. I still think the Padres are moving in the right direction and have good young players on the way up, but as is my typical failure as a prognosticator, I clearly overestimated their immediate impact. Unfortunately, some of their moves this winter (Brady Anderson? Homer Bush? Jesse Orosco? Charles Nagy? Mark Loretta?) don't inspire confidence, even if some of them were only minor league deals. Seriously, Brady Anderson?

Injuries to both Phil Nevin and Sean Burroughs (as well as general rookie growing pains for Burroughs), as well as a general lack of pop, held back the offense all season. For the most part the same cast is back and will get another chance to make it work, although it remains to be seen if Nevin is willing to move across the diamond again to accommodate Burroughs. Even with improvement from the youngsters and a return to form from Nevin, however, this wouldn't appear to be a very strong offensive club.

The pitching, on the other hand, is in pretty good shape. Former ace Adam Eaton, fresh off surgery which kept him out most of the season, seemed to have things figured out in his last three starts of the year. Jake Peavy and Oliver Perez are as impressive a young right-lefty duo as you'll find in the majors, with each more than holding his own last season, and the unheralded Brian Lawrence threw over 200 innings with a 3.69 ERA last year.

Wrap it up
Though the Diamondbacks have won the division two years running, their aging team seems primed for a decline despite the terrific Johnson-Schilling combination. The Giants lost some key players and have question marks in their rotation, but did well to plug holes with Alfonzo and Durham. The Dodgers would appear to have overachieved last season, and also look to decline. The Rockies and Padres should be better almost by default, though that's probably not fair to the Rockies who did make some genuine improvements this winter. Overall the gap between the top and bottom of this division should get smaller, though the gap certainly still exists.

The prediction: San Francisco, Arizona, Los Angeles, Colorado, San Diego.

about the author

Jason Michael Barker can't wait for spring training to start, let along the regular season. Still, tell him he's better off not starting to walk to Arizona tomorrow (or swimming to Japan for the Mariners-Athletics opener) when you write jmb@strikethree.com.

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