Off-Season Capsule: NL East

Jason Michael Barker

At long last -- and just in time for spring training, I might add -- we've arrived at the sixth and final capsule. Before I begin, however, a question: Who finished second in the National League East last season? Had you asked me that a few hours ago, I probably would have said the Phillies or Marlins. But no, 'twas those pesky Montreal Expos. I'm still not sure how I missed that one, but I guess it's just hard to adjust to Les Expos fielding a winning team. Moving on...

Atlanta Braves
2002 record: 101-59
Runs scored: 708 (10th), Runs allowed: 565 (1st)

Say hello: RHP Paul Byrd, C Johnny Estrada, 1B/OF Robert Fick, LHP Mike Hampton, RHP Roberto Hernandez, LHP Ray King, RHP Russ Ortiz, LHP Mike Venafro
Say goodbye: LHP Tom Glavine, LHP Chris Hammond, 3B Wes Helms, RHP Kerry Ligtenberg, IF Keith Lockhart, RHP Albie Lopez, RHP Kevin Millwood, LHP Damian Moss, LHP Mike Remlinger, RHP Tim Spooneybarger, OF BJ Surhoff, C Steve Torrealba

The scoop: The Braves quietly won 101 games last year, but once entered the post-season with an offense that left something to be desired. Then, despite outscoring the Giants 25-24 in the first round, they lost the series by scoring just four runs over the final two games of a five-game series. Chipper Jones and Gary Sheffield are great hitters and Andruw Jones is very good, but those three had very little around them during the regular season.

Surprisingly, the Braves overhauled their pitching staff this winter but did very little to address the offense. On the other hand perhaps that isn't so surprising, as the key to their success over the past decade has always been their pitching. Still, when a club finishes just 10th in the league in runs scored, you'd think they'd be looking to improve. New 1B Robert Fick should provide a slight upgrade over Julio Franco (inexplicably re-signed to a minor league deal), but the same could be said for almost any warm body. Atlanta's best hope for scoring more runs in 2003 is a big season from 2B Marcus Giles, who suffered through injuries and personal problems in 2002.

This will be the year pitching coach/guru Leo Mazzone really earns his money, as the Braves have brought in three new starters -- Mike Hampton, Russ Ortiz and Paul Byrd -- as well as several new relievers who should see substantial innings. Hampton would be a particularly fine feather in Mazzone's cap, if the lefty can regain the form that saw him post ERAs in the mid-to-low threes before signing with Colorado. Both Hampton and Ortiz need to cut down on their walks, something even Greg Maddux had a problem with before heading to Atlanta.

Montreal Expos
2002 record: 83-79
Runs scored: 735 (6th), Runs allowed: 718 (8th)

Say hello: RHP Rocky Biddle, RHP Orlando Hernandez, OF Jeff Liefer
Say goodbye: RHP Bartolo Colon, 1B Andres Galarraga, UT Wilton Guerrero, RHP Matt Herges, OF Troy O'Leary, RHP Masato Yoshii

The scoop: In order to achieve their surprise second-place finish, the Expos gutted their farm system to acquire Cliff Floyd and Bartolo Colon -- only to trade the former almost immediately and the latter this winter. Needless to say they didn't get back nearly as much as they first gave up, particularly for Colon, who cost them three top prospects. The team enters 2003 in limbo, still under MLB control and most likely playing their last season in Montreal.

The Expos didn't boast a stellar offense last season, but hey, at least they scored more runs than the Braves. As long as Vladimir Gurrero, Jose Vidro and Brad Wilkerson remain in the lineup, they'll have a solid base of hitters. Catcher Michael Barrett appears to have gotten his career back on track after two miserable seasons, and even shortstop Orlando Cabrera tallied 43 doubles last season in what was otherwise a poor campaign -- look for both to take steps forward in 2003. Some people, myself included, still expect good things from Fernando Tatis as well. If anything, they should improve on last season's runs total.

At first glance it appears the pitching will be another story, as they'll no longer have Colon's services. The good news is that the young duo of Javier Vazquez and Tony Armas remain to anchor the staff, while Orlando Hernandez can still pitch quite effectively assuming he's healthy. In perhaps the most underappreciated season of 2002, Tomokazu Ohka pitched nearly 200 innings last season with a 3.18 ERA -- go ahead, look it up. That gives the Expos four solid starters, all of which amounts to a much better outlook than you might have thought. How long this group remains together is another story, however.

Philadelphia Phillies
2002 record: 80-81
Runs scored: 710 (8th), Runs allowed: 727 (9th)

Say hello: 3B David Bell, 3B Tyler Houston, RHP Kevin Millwood, 1B Jim Thome
Say goodbye: 2B Marlon Anderson, RHP Ricky Bottalico, 1B/OF Jeremy Giambi, OF Doug Glanville, 1B Travis Lee, RHP Mike Timlin

The scoop: Could this off-season have worked out any better for the Phillies? First they signed Jim Thome, the top slugger on the market. Next up was David Bell, who unlike Scott Rolen actually wants to play in Philadelphia. Then, having missed out on free agents Tom Glavine and Jamie Moyer, the Phills lucked into Kevin Millwood when the Braves miscalculated what Greg Maddux would do with their arbitration offer. Trading backup catcher Johnny Estrada for Millwood was the steal of the off-season.

Adding Thome to Pat Burrell and Bobby Abreu gives the Phillies a tremendous group in the middle of their batting order. The rest of the order is questionable, though there's certainly potential. Jimmy Rollins actually hit for more power and drew more walks last year than he did in his rookie year, but lost 30 points off his batting average; all things being equal, that's probably just bad luck and he should bounce back. David Bell and Mike Lieberthal are far from awful. Heck, even Placido Polanco is passable at second. And I'll try not to get too excited about rookie CF Marlon Byrd -- as is my wont with young players -- but he should, at the very least, out-hit Doug Glanville.

Despite all their moves this winter, the Phillies were still short an ace -- until they stole Millwood from the Braves, that is. Millwood, Randy Wolf and Vicente Padilla combine to offer a very solid 1-2-3 (and right-left-right, if you're in to that sort of thing) punch at the top of the rotation. Young Brett Myers (3.59 ERA and nearly a 5:1 K:BB ratio at AAA last season) should be in the rotation as well, with a cast of several competing for the fifth job. The bullpen doesn't look quite as good, though not for lack of arms -- Philadelphia has nine or ten viable starting pitchers, and a few of those who don't crack the rotation are bound to wind up in relief.

Florida Marlins
2002 record: 79-83
Runs scored: 699 (12th), Runs allowed: 763 (12th)

Say hello: OF Todd Hollandsworth, OF Juan Pierre, LHP Mark Redman, C Ivan Rodriguez, RHP Tim Spooneybarger, OF Gerald Williams
Say goodbye: LHP Vic Darensbourg, C Charles Johnson, LHP Graeme Lloyd, OF Kevin Millar, OF Eric Owens, IF Pablo Ozuna, OF Tim Raines, RHP Julian Tavarez, OF Preston Wilson

The scoop: The Marlins were involved in perhaps the most complicated transaction off the off-season, though they don't really have much to show for it. Rather, they were just an expensive clearing house for Mike Hampton -- a clearing house that's on the hook for $30M of his salary over the next three seasons. By contrast, they only owed Charles Johnson $25M over the same period. But hey, that's baseball finances for you these days.

The Marlins scored just 699 runs last year and their 2003 outlook is just as bleak. Gone are Cliff Floyd and Kevin Millar, the club's two best hitters from last season, while CF Preston Wilson has been replaced by Juan ".675 OPS at Coors" Pierre. Sure, Pudge will help somewhat, but can he stay healthy? Unfortunately for everyone involved, the NL won't allow him to DH once or twice a week to keep his legs fresh, and he's moving from a park that favors hitters, to one that favors their arch-rivals. Hmm.

On the positive, Florida does boast a good young rotation provided it can stay healthy. Josh Beckett, AJ Burnett and Brad Penny all have the stuff to be #1 starters, while new addition Mark Redman is handy lefty to have in the rotation. The biggest issue will be keeping this group off the DL -- Beckett had blister problems last year and has been bothered by shoulder trouble in the past, Beckett was shut down for a time last year with a mysterious elbow injury in addition to a pretty heavy workload, and there have been rumblings all winter about Penny's supposed injuries, though that appears to have been overblown.

New York Mets
2002 record: 75-86
Runs scored: 690 (13th), Runs allowed: 703 (7th)

Say hello: Manager Art Howe, OF Cliff Floyd, LHP Tom Glavine, IF Russ Johnson, SS Rey Sanchez, OF Tsuyoshi Shinjo, LHP Mike Stanton
Say goodbye: 3B Edgardo Alfonzo, OF Brady Clark, LHP Mark Guthrie, RHP Satoru Komiyama, SS Rey Ordonez, RHP Steve Reed, RHP John Thompson, IF John Valentin

The scoop: The Mets were a bust last season, finishing last despite adding the likes of Roberto Alomar, Jeromy Burnitz, Mo Vaughn and Roger Cedeno the winter prior. Come to think of it, with the exception of Alomar perhaps we should have seen this coming. This winter they focused equally on the pitching and offense, with perhaps the best move of all being finally ridding themselves of Rey Ordonez, even if it was about three years overdue.

The offense should be better in 2003, if only because it can't get much worse. Floyd will help some, but the biggest room for improvement is the likes of Alomar, Burnitz, Cedeno and Vaughn bouncing back from their horrid 2002 campaigns. It should also be noted that Mike Piazza seems to be losing about 55 points of OPS each season as he gets further and further into his 30's. He's still a great player, but he can't go on forever; counting on him to perform up to his old standards is probably asking a bit much.

Tom Glavine instantly upgrades the rotation, and I'll only mention his age in passing (cough-37-cough) since this is just a one-year outlook. If the top three of Glavine, Al Leiter and Steve Traschel all pitch like they did last season, the Mets won't have any complaints about their rotation even if Pedro Astacio's arm falls off (which it very well might). Rookie Aaron Heilman (132:44 K:BB ratio in 146 AA/AAA innings last year) could join the rotation late in the year or sooner if my Astacio prediction comes true. Stanton joins an already solid bullpen.

Wrap it up
In the simplest terms, three teams -- Montreal, Philadelphia and New York -- look improved (or in the case of the Expos, young and improving as opposed to improved through transactions) this winter, while Atlanta and Florida appear to have taken steps back. The real question is just how far the Braves will fall before landing... and the answer, as I see it, is second place.

The prediction: Philadelphia, Atlanta, Montreal, New York, Florida.

Next week: Readers respond to my ramblings of the past six weeks!

about the author

Jason Michael Barker was looking around for MLB's seventh division to write about for next week, but he seems to have misplaced it. Suggest the National League Europe ("Let's go, London Towers!") when you write to jmb@strikethree.com.

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