Warm Stove:
Central Reservations

Dave Paisley

Well, every year when doing division by division predictions, there is the unenviable task of assessing the Central divisions. Why the center of the country should be almost devoid of baseball talent is a mystery, but there it is. And I don?t see Tony Shalhoub bothering to investigate either - I?m sure a baseball locker room is just way too unsanitary for Monk?s tastes.

Last year I predicted that the winner of the division would barely break .500, and except for a remarkable death-defying high wire act by the Twins, I was pretty much right. The Twins scored 768 runs last year and conceded 712. By our trusty Pythagorean method, they should have won 86 games. However, they actually won 94 - a big enough statistical anomaly to make you go, ?Hmmmm.? Given that no team has managed to consistently out-produce their Pythagorean prediction year after year, it?s reasonable to surmise that the Twins will regress a bit this year due to luck alone.

Of course, they had some bad luck with injuries last year - Radke and Mays were each out for a while, but they did fine without them. Adding them back in, the Twins better hope they revert to career form. Rick Reed should help, but Eric Milton seems to have settled down as a league average pitcher. Eddie Guardado anchored a, for once, pretty good bullpen, but can he do it a second year?

The offense, while decent, lacks a real defining crunch in the middle of the order. Sure, there?s lots of young help on the way, but they?ll take a while to mature. So I see the Twins doing roughly what I predicted last year - right around .500. 79 wins may be a bit low, but that?s what I?m going with.

My colleague Jason Barker favors the Twins in the division, and the Indians to finish second, but I just don?t see the Indians as being that good. For one, their ace pitcher this time last year is now on the payroll of a key division rival. For two, they lost their one huge bat in the offense. Top slugger on the Tribe now? Ellis ?Bad Knees Bears? Burks. Now that?s just not a good thing. Without any major acquisitions, they?re relying on a bunch of youngsters jumping in, but I can guarantee that none of them will resemble Bartolo Colon or Jim Thome.

In fact, to put you out of your suspense, here's the table as I see it:

Team	OPS	ERA	Runs Scored	Runs Allowed	Wins
White Sox	.788	4.67	866	816	86
Twins	.736	4.44	760	779	79
Indians	.711	4.66	711	814	70
Royals	.726	5.02	741	873	68
Tigers	.696	5.06	680	880	61

If the youth movement pans out for the Tribe, they might be good in a couple of years, but not right now. 70 wins looks punitive, maybe, but what?s life without a little adventure?

Meanwhile, those division rival White Sox picked up the aforementioned Colon, adding depth to a good pitching staff. I didn?t care for the Foulke for Koch deal - Foulke is a little better - but overall, they?ve done a fair job at improving. The middle of the batting order with Frank Thomas, Paul Konerko, Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Lee, is unrivaled in this division.

Given their 81-81 record last year and the fact they?ve added a potential 20 game winner without losing anything significant, I think they?re the pick of a weak division. 86 wins is certainly achievable for this bunch.

Speaking of weak division, we only have the Tigers and the Royals left. These are two teams that epitomize ?weak?. (As opposed to the Brewers, who epitomize ?pathetic?.)

Taking the Royals first (or fourth if you want to be technical), there are some bright spots. For example, on the plus side, they lost Rey Ordonez clone Neifi Perez. On the downside, though, they lost Paul Byrd, Jeff Suppan and Roberto Hernandez. OK, on most teams, losing Byrd and Suppan wouldn?t have been much of a problem, but this is the Royals, where losing those two would have been like the Braves losing Glavine and Maddux. On the plus side again, they did keep Mike Sweeney, who even got some support from Carlos Beltran and Raul Ibanez last year. Beltran should keep it up, but we?ll have to see about Ibanez. 68 wins might not be much to the Yankees, but it will be almost party time in KC if they get that many.

As sad as the Royals picture is, the Tigers is sadder, in fact their offense is as sad as a sad thing gets. The only bright spots are Carlos Pena and Bobby Higginson. Maybe Dimitri Young. But Pena has to develop a bit and Higginson is a shadow of the player he could have been. Dean Palmer is another name you?ll recognize, but the only way you?ll know him for sure is by his AARP membership card. As for the pitching, well, when veteran knuckleballer Steve Sparks is your #1 guy, need I say more? They can just thank their lucky stars the Devil Rays are worse.

The sad thing is there?s really not much hope on the horizon for these last two teams. Well, maybe the Tigers? luck will change when they get their new stadium. No, I mean the next one, after Comerica, maybe around 2023?

about the author

Got any tips for the Tigers front offcie this year? Send them to Dave Paisley along with your hot dog condiment preference at drdjp@strikethree.com.