Don't Quote Me On That!

Jason Michael Barker

Before we get started, does it bother anyone else that Opening Day isn't a single day? The Rangers and Angels opened Sunday night, while 24 more teams played their first games Monday. Still other teams (the A's and Mariners, to name two) open today. As a reward for kicking off the season, the aforementioned Rangers and Angels get that quirky "day off in the middle of a series" as part of their schedule.

I know I say this every year, but Opening Day should be a single day when every team in Major League Baseball plays their first game, rather than this bastardized version where it's all spread over three days. Make it a sort of national holiday, where kids don't have to attend school and adults are allowed to, nay, expected to, skip work or at least have the ballgame on at the office.

It's just one guy's dream, I guess. Moving on...

I started my season predictions quite early this year, first looking at the American League West way back in the first week of January. Things have a tendency to change in three months -- the White Sox picked up Bartolo Colon, for instance -- meaning some of those early predictions might not look so hot right about now. This is also my chance to look back and address a few "What was I thinking?" sort of predictions as well as offer up some last minute justification for the same.

Note: Clicking on the division name will take you back to the original article.

AL West
Then: Oakland, Seattle, Anaheim, Texas
Now: No change here. The A's are still the cream of the crop, thanks to their top three starters and wear-you-down-with-homers-and-walks offense. Seattle and Anaheim are pretty darned close in the middle and could certainly finish the other way around, but in the end the Angels just won't be able to maintain last year's momentum, and their starting pitching is overrated. Texas isn't as far away from contending as you might think, but it won't be this season.

AL Central
Then: Minnesota, Cleveland, Chicago, Detroit, Kansas City
Now: This was before the White Sox stole Colon from the Expos, but even still, I should have picked them second rather than third -- with Colon they're a solid lock for second and could push the Twins much of the season. In some ways this division is like the American League East, shaking down in a 2-1-2 fashion that goes good-rebuilding-awful. It's easy to place the five teams into those three categories, just as it is in the East. In any event, flip-flop the Indians and White Sox but keep the rest the same.

AL East
Then: New York, Boston, Toronto, Baltimore, Tampa Bay
Now: Can I wait and see how long Derek Jeter is going to be out before deciding on this one? If he is out for a while, that could be the thing to push the Red Sox over the top. As an aside, do you think Joe Torre would play Alfonso Soriano at shortstop, sacrificing defense for offense? Nah, I don't think so either. Back to the issue at hand, I'll assume Jeter is going to be fine and thus the Yankees will finish the season on top. As with the aforementioned Central, this is clearly a 2-1-2 division and never the twain shall meet. Not this season, at least.

NL West
Then: San Francisco, Arizona, Los Angeles, Colorado, San Diego
Now: Still feeling pretty good about this one. The Giants moved Livan Hernandez to make room for their young pitchers, and of course they still have that Bonds character. Edgardo Alfonso, Ray Durham and Jose Cruz Jr. will prove to be very nice additions. Overall they should have more balance than then Bonds-Kent days, and the more I think about it, the more I think they're the best team in the NL. Arizona takes second almost by default thanks to Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling -- even a full season from Kevin Brown won't get the Dodgers out of third. Colorado continues to flail about wildly, while the Padres seem to have given up on their rebuilding process in favor of mediocre veterans. Why, Kevin Towers, why?

NL Central
Then: Houston, St. Louis, Cincinnati, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee
Now: I'm sticking with the Astros, though I'll also admit that I might have sold the Cardinals short in my first go-round. Still, they have some pretty unfavorable injury situations to deal with. I still like the Reds quite a bit, though their starting pitching just isn't up to snuff. All this optimism surrounding the Cubs? Save it for 2004 at the earliest. The Pirates seem surprisingly competitive, while the Brewers... ick. No changes here.

NL East
Then: Philadelphia, Atlanta, Montreal, New York, Florida
Now: Despite all the email I got from angry Mets' fans, I'm sticking with this one too. The Phillies wrestled the division away from the Braves with the Kevin Millwood trade, though there doesn't seem to be much argument who the top two teams in the East this season are. As for the Expos over the Mets, I have two words for you: David Cone. Not to oversimplify things, but doesn't it speak volumes that Cone won a spot in the Mets' rotation? I still like Montreal's rotation better than New York's, not to mention their offense.

And now, the words I've been waiting to type for five months... play ball!

about the author

Jason Michael Barker is looking forward to Opening Day in Seattle, so much so that he's already camping out outside Safeco Field. Remind him that the Mariners open the season in Oakland when you write jmb@strikethree.com.

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