NL Rookie Roundup

Jason Michael Barker

Last week, I commented that it appeared to be weak crop of rookies in the American League. This week, allow me to comment that the problem in the National League is quantity, not quality. I could just be missing some guys, or perhaps just overlooking players who haven't seen much game action, but it was tough to come up with eight NL rookies to write about.

There's no such problem in Arizona, of all places, where the normally veteran laden Diamondbacks find themselves turning to rookies due to injuries to their pair of aces, Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling. Many people expected John Patterson to make the club this spring, but the Snakes took Oscar Villareal with them instead. The young righty from Mexico has been effective in relief so far this year, though his 18 walks in 27.1 innings are about twice what you'd like to see. He has survived those walks by holding hitters to a .206 average with just two homers, or a .188 mark if you take out his one start.

The second rookie hurler making noise in Arizona is Brandon Webb, who was called up in late April despite an ERA of six in three AAA starts. All Webb did in his first major league start was strikeout ten in seven innings, allowing the Mets no runs on three hits and just one walk. For his effort he was rewarded by being sent immediately back to AAA to make room for Randy Johnson to come off the DL. Unfortunately for Arizona but fortunately for Webb, Johnson went back on the DL just a few days later and Webb once again found himself on the big club. He proceeded to pitch well in two more starts, and currently sports a nifty 1.64 ERA and 21 strikeouts with just 11 hits allowed in 22 innings.

Arizona's final rookie, 1B Lyle Overbay, arrived at spring training with his job more or less a given, and sure enough he has received the majority of the time at first for the Diamondbacks this year. Overbay has hit about like you would expect, with a .287 average and enough walks to get his OBP to .349, but without the power most teams are looking for at the position. In other words, he's hitting just like the guy he replaced, Mark Grace. Overbay is a nice player and may well hit for a better average as time goes on (he was a career .345 hitter in the minors), but you have to wonder if they would have been better off keeping Erubiel Durazo instead.

Where do the Braves find these guys, anyway? Atlanta picked up Paul Byrd, Mike Hampton, Russ Ortiz and Shane Reynolds since last season ended -- they also have this Maddux fellow -- and yet somehow an unknown like Horacio Ramirez has made seven starts already in 2003. Had you asked me for the names of Atlanta's pitching prospects a month ago, I could have named five or six guys but never would have come up with Ramirez. A little digging reveals that after a very good 2000 season, he missed nearly the entire 2001 season after Tommy John surgery and then pitched about half of last year, with fairly good results given what he was coming back from. So far he's survived despite an extremely low strikeout rate (less than five per nine innings, generally the mark below which pitchers can't make it), with a 3.77 ERA in 43 innings.

One guy who didn't come out of nowhere is Chicago 1B Hee Seop Choi, as the Cubs and their fans have been waiting for him for several years now. There was more than a bit of concern that veteran friendly manager Dusty Baker wouldn't play Choi over Eric Karros, but so far the rookie has the edge in terms of at-bats. Still, it would be nice to see him in there more often, because when he plays he crushes the ball. Choi's .247/.420/.558 line includes 21 walks against just 77 at-bats, and 12 of his 19 hits (63%) have gone for extra bases. To Karros' credit he has mauled left-handed pitching this season, and if Choi has a weakness it's lefties, though he's only been given six at-bats against them this year.

A key prospect in the trade which sent closer Antonio Alfonseca from Florida to Chicago before last season, lefty Dontrelle Willis has put up some incredible numbers in the minors. In 2001 he posted a 2.98 ERA at short-season Boise with a 77:19 strikeout to walk ratio, then exploded last season by posting ERAs under two at two different A-ball stops. Entering this year he had a 2.42 ERA and 227:52 K:BB ratio in three minor league seasons, and he kept doing his thing this year at AA with a 1.49 ERA and 32:9 ratio in 36.1 innings. Unfortunately he was called up last week by the Marlins, the same organization which ended A.J. Burnett's season and is trying to do the same with Josh Beckett. Just 21 years of age, you have to hope the Marlins will go easy on Willis. His major league debut went well, as he allowed fanned seven and walked just two in six innings. Best of all, he threw just 93 pitches.

Normally you wouldn't call a pitcher who has allowed 47 hits in 39.1 innings a success, but New York's Jae Weong Seo has been just that thanks to his extremely low walk rate. Seo has walked just six hitters in those 39.1 innings, or 1.37 per nine innings, on his way to a 3.43 ERA. The bad news is that he's allowing opposing hitters a .294 batting average, but if he can keep those walks dow, he just might be able to pull it off. Of course it would help if he started recording more strikeouts, as his K rate (5.5 per nine) is consistent with what you'd expect from a soft-tosser who doesn't walk anybody. Seo used to throw much harder than his current average fastball, but Tommy John surgery a few years back robbed him of his velocity.

With Phil Nevin's season ending injury pushing Ryan Klesko back to first, the Padres filled the subsequent hole in their outfield with Xavier Nady, a polished college hitter drafted in the second round in 2000. He was seen as a first round talent, but slipped due to his perceived bonus demands and so-so junior season. Nady ripped up the minors for two seasons before struggling at AAA last season (.283/.329/.422) but so far is hitting in the majors (.275/.342/.406) about like he did last year. That may not sound like much, but when a player moves up a level and keeps hitting at about the same clip, it's generally a good sign. At the very least, he has increased his walk rate dramatically over what he did in the minors last year, always a positive. He has yet to hit for power like he did in college, but is relatively inexperienced with fewer than 500 at-bats above A-ball. At 6-0, 180 he's not a big guy, so the power will come from his excellent bat speed rather than above-average size or strength.

about the author

Jason Michael Barker thinks Xavier Nady's name is so cool, he's considering changing his own name to Xavier. Let him know he'd be better off with Alejandro, Maurice or just plain Steve at jmb@strikethree.com.

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