Prospecting for Gold:
Brave Chart

Dan Troy

I've been absent from this space for a while, partly due to some serious head-scratching over the postseason. Who'd'a thunk that Juan Pierre would become a household name or that virtually every national baseball writer would spill so much ink over how to rebuild the Yankees—a team coming off a 100-win season and a league championship. I'll tell you this much, Juan Pierre ain't all that and the very last thing the Yankees should do is trade away the only guys on the roster who are both under 30 and make less than $13 million a year (Alfonso Soriano and Nick Johnson). Otherwise, they should panic.

Actually, the real reason I've been absent for so long is because I've been pretty busy combing over the over 5,000 minor-league players affiliated with big-league organizations and the Detroit Tigers, in order to bring you the best prospect analysis that Strikethree.com can afford. Also, frankly, the heat has been on my tail over a little, er, misunderstanding. Hopefully, the latter will blow over and I'll be able to complete my reviews of every organization's farm system-the good, the bad, and the ugly.

A couple of notes before we rush headlong into it: These reviews will not be 100% exhaustive. I can't tell you every detail about every player, so I'll be covering the best and most notable players (i.e., high draft picks and regrettable flops) each system has to offer, and I'll do my best to leave you with an overall sense of your favorite organization's strengths and weaknesses. Feel free to contact me to ask about your best friend's girlfriend's third cousin who occasionally pinch-runs for Batavia, assuming he's not mentioned below.

I'll break down the organizations division-by-division, and what better place to start than with the division of your new world champions? (We'll get to actually discussing the new world champions next time. Ha.) Without further ado, I bring you the first NL East Organizational Review.

Atlanta Braves

If you've ever played high-school baseball in Georgia, then the Braves have probably drafted you. They draft so many guys from Georgia that one might believe their scouting system is a medium-powered telescope situated atop Turner Field. Despite this seeming limitation, they manage to have a system that generally produces good talent for the big-league club, and enough ammunition for key deadline or off-season trades. The current crop is no different, and I'd say the Braves have one of the better, and certainly one of the deeper, systems in the game.

Adam Wainwright is the system's top pitcher. I sensed more excitement about him after 2002, but he quietly posted a very solid season in Greenville. The tall RHP didn't post the kind of big K totals that generally gain notice, but his K:BB ratio of nearly 3.5-to-1 (64 percent better than league average) demonstrated excellent command for a 21-year-old in AA. He's on his way.

Similarly, young LHP Macay McBride continued to make steady progress through the system. While I'd like to see a few more Ks from someone of his talent pitching against A-ball hitters, he does show strong command for a young pitcher (his K:BB was 42 percent better than league average), and he keeps the ball in the park. He features an excellent slider.

Dan Meyer showed Sally League hitters what polish means by posting an eye-catching K:BB ratio of about 6.3-to-1. It doesn't get much better than that. The 22-year-old left-hander also performed well upon his promotion to the Carolina League, so he may be the next Brave pitching prospect to receive some hype. Anthony Lerew and Kyle Davies are two more promising young pitchers who looked good in the Sally League. They are emblematic of the organization's fastball/changeup approach, and both will need to improve their breaking pitches to succeed at higher levels. Davies, in particular, has an outstanding change.

The news was not quite so good for others that have been heralded at one time or another. Matt Belisle failed to progress in his second turn at AA and was shipped off to the Reds. Similarly, Brett Evert was disappointingly average in Greenville. Ray Aguilar looked good as a reliever and should earn a spot in Leo Mazzone's swinging door bullpen. The Braves, along with many scouts, are high on Bubba Nelson. I don't see much in the numbers at this point to justify the perception that he's close to ready—his K rate just doesn't look like the K rate of a guy ready to take on big-league hitters—though at just 21 his promising stuff may eventually translate into more dominating performance.

The star among position players is 19 year-old 3B Andy Marte. Marte has always shown good power, but the rapid advancement in his plate discipline has catapulted him to the upper echelon of prospects. He upped his BB/AB rate from .08 in 2002 to a stellar .15 in 2003, while maintaining excellent power. Indeed, if anything, his power may be masked by the tough hitting environment in Myrtle Beach. He thumped extra-base hits at a rate 53 percent better than league average. If you're looking for a guy who could go Cabrera in 2004, he may be it.

Adam LaRoche—yes, the son of Dave—emerged as the possible 1B of the future for he Braves, if we can assume Julio Franco will retire before age 65. LaRoche demonstrated excellent power in his stints at both AA and AAA, and he showed a willingness to take a walk. He does fan enough to make you wonder whether big-league pitchers might school him for a while, so it might be wise to have him tighten up his game a bit in AAA before handing him the job.

Jeff Francouer didn't quite dazzle the SAL the way he did the Appalachian League, but he played very well nonetheless. His large frame contains good power, as evidenced by strong Isolated Power, slugging, and extra-base-hit totals for a 19-year-old in full-season ball. While his walk rate was pretty weak, he did not strike out excessively, and Marte's progress in that regard holds out some hope and a good example for Francoeur's development.

Few are certain that Brian McCann can remain a catcher, but he sure shows an awfully nice power bat for that position, and most other positions to boot. Nineteen-year-old catchers with a slugging percentage 28 percent above league average deserve mention. Of course, I'd be remiss if I didn't note that his BB:K ratio was not pretty (24 BB, 73 K in 424 AB). Additionally, he'll need to hold off 2003 draftee Jarrod Saltalmacchia. I recommend that McCann do everything he can to stay behind the plate.

While Scott Thorman's numbers don't grab the eye at first, he actually did pretty well considering the hitting environment at Myrtle Beach. He socked extra-base hits at a healthy clip, and has decent control of the zone. He'll still need better discipline, and he's likely stuck behind LaRoche at first base, but I'm keeping an eye on him. Gregor Blanco slipped a bit from his promising 2002 stint in the SAL, but he has a willingness to take a walk and good speed to build upon. Matt Esquivel has a lot of intriguing tools, but I'm concerned that a repeat in the Appy League yielded no improvement in his troubling BB:K ratios (20:72 in 220 at-bats).

A couple of years after looking like a star, fortunes have turned some for Kelly Johnson and, especially, for Wilson Betemit. Johnson still features decent power for a SS, assuming he can stay at the position, though that is not assured, but his high K totals are a red flag. He did hit better as the season wore on, so we'll see if that translates into better performance next year. Betemit's big 2001 season looks more and more like a batting average-inflated fluke. There are lots of tools to fall in love with, but not nearly as many skills. His failure to learn the strike zone is hurting him, and that's a difficult skill to learn much beyond his current age.

about the author

Dan Troy likes saying "Sally League," and wishes more minor leagues could be nicknamed after women. Suggest that it might be a better idea to name them after old comedians, starting with the Nipsey League, at el@strikethree.com.