Prospecting for Gold:
South Breach

Dan Troy

(This is the second in Dan Troy's offseason farm reports.)

Florida Marlins

The good news is that your team just won the World Series. The bad news is that if you hoping there were more where Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis came from, you may be disappointed. I don't see more than a couple of prospects to get excited about right now, but trading a guy like Mike Lowell could quickly bring some talent back into the system. At the moment, however, promotions and deadline deals that shipped off guys like Adrian Gonzalez and Denny Bautista have thinned things out quite a bit. Indeed, some of the players below may not have rated a mention if they were in the Braves' system.

The most heralded hitting prospect in the Marlins' system is Jason Stokes, though his 2003 season was a disappointment relative to 2002. A wrist injury slowed him down, but interestingly it was his plate discipline that suffered much more than his power (his BB rate dropped from .13 to .08). He does feature big-time pop, and hopefully when he's fully healthy he'll consolidate the skills that first gained him notice.

A hitter with a chance at surpassing Stokes on the prospect lists is 2002 first-rounder Jeremy Hermida. While his numbers may not jump out at you, closer scrutiny reveals a rosier picture. I love the fact that he drew 80 walks in his first professional season, and his BB:K ratio was nearly 70 percent better than league average - a good sign that he'll handle promotion well. He hasn't shown much power yet, but few doubt the sweet-swinging 19-year-old will ultimately hit with authority. He's a good candidate for a 2004 breakout season.

Josh Willingham has always hit well, and I sure love those walks, but he's attempting a difficult position change (to catcher) at a relatively advanced age (24). A knee injury this year hasn't helped his progress, but I think he'll hit.

There's a big drop-off from here to the next-best position players in the system. Chip Ambres showed excellent improvement in his plate discipline in the Southern League this year. He has enough power and athletic ability to be of interest, but he needs to show he can stay healthy. Jesus Medrano has an excellent batting eye, but his power just isn't developing. He struggled in his promotion to AAA, and wouldn't appear to be much insurance in the event Luis Castillo departs. Rex Rundgren is Todd's son. OK, now we're reaching.

I know it's hard to look good while pitching in Albuquerque, but I've never been a big Justin Wayne fan. He features solid control, but his generally low K totals make him appear to be more of a back-end rotation guy or swing starter than an important part of a good rotation. He does do a good job of keeping the ball in the yard, though.

Nic Ungs' second attempt at the Florida State League went a lot better than the first - it's hard to ignore a 1.99 ERA or a 6:1 K:BB ratio. His promotion to AA went pretty well, too. He was a little old to be in the FSL, though, and his modest K rates are concerning.

2002 draftee Scott Olson had a promising year in the SAL. The 19-year-old LHP struck out about one per inning, allowed only a Scrooge-like 4 HR in 128 innings, and noticeably improved as the season progressed. He walked too many hitters, but that's not unusual for a youngster. Keep an eye on him.

2003 first-rounder Jeff Allison sported about the most cartoonishly dominating high-school numbers you're likely to see (118 Ks and 7 hits allowed in 51 IP!), and he signed in time to get in a few innings in the Gulf Coast League this year. The stuff is unquestioned, but we'll have to see if he can make necessary adjustments in his mechanics and survive the rigors of full-season pro schedule.

about the author

Dan Troy is looking forward to visiting Florida this holiday season. Offer him your sofa at dt@strikethree.com, and remind him to bring Kevlar anti-mosquito armor.