Prospecting for Gold:
Budding Bedouins

Dan Troy

(This is the third in Dan Troy's offseason farm reports.)

Montreal Expos

The Omar Minaya regime had to do a lot of scrambling in order to put together a scouting operation after Jeff Loria took all the computers and pencil sharpeners with him to Florida. Still, the Expos did have a pretty good system at that time (2002). Unfortunately, trades have really thinned things out since then. This system would look a lot better - and the big league club's outlook more secure - if it had retained Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips, and Jason Bay. Alas, the prospect pickings here are relatively slim, as it's filled with more cogs than stars.

Free Terrmel Sledge! At age 26, the lefty-swinging outfielder long ago demonstrated an ability to hit upper-level pitching, and I'd say he's overdue for a big-league job somewhere. I'm certain he could outhit the likes of Terrence Long and Roger Cedeno right now, though that's damning with faint praise. The PCL likely inflated his power output, but he handles the zone well and would probably be a good platoon partner for someone like Val Pascucci.

By raking up huge walk totals (93 in 2002 and 101 in 2003) and flashing some pop, Pascucci has some of the earmarks of a stathead favorite. He has a long swing though, and has had difficulty making consistent contact throughout his career. Of further concern was a drop in home runs from 27 to 15 after moving on to the hitter-friendly PCL, though that might just be a blip. He could probably use some more AAA at-bats.

Larry Broadway is clearly the best hitter in the Expos' system, and the 2002 draftee showed both impressive patience and power in his full-season debut. Broadway, a left-handed first baseman, played at three levels, drawing a combined 69 walks in only 444 at bats in 2003 stops in the SAL, FSL and Eastern League. He slugged 20 homers among his 60 extra-base hits. He struck out a bit more than I'd like to see, but that shouldn't be too shocking given the rapid level jumping he went through. I'd let him have at least a half season in AA in 2004 to give him a chance to catch his breath, but he could come quickly.

Brandon Watson hit an impressive .319 in AA, which is encouraging for a 21-year-old. I also like that his BB:K ratio is very good. However, he appears to have no power whatsoever, having hit just three home runs in over 1,800 pro at-bats. A guy like this needs to draw a ton of walks to survive in the bigs, and he doesn't do that right now.

Josh McKinley is a former first-rounder (1998) who last year hit well for the first time in his pro career. He's always shown a good batting eye but hit with so little authority that his career SLG is only .370. And that includes the .467 figure he posted in 2003. As he cooled off during the season, I'm inclined to think he won't repeat this success. He's attempting a conversion to catcher, which may help his chances.

2002 sixth-rounder Chad Chop had a pretty good season in the SAL, hitting .322 and slugging a healthy .464. Like many young hitters, he'll need to improve his plate discipline to compete at higher levels, but he's one of the few promising young hitters in the system.

There's a little more talent on the pitching front, I think. Clint Everts was taken as the fifth pick of the 2002 draft, out of the same high school that gave us Scott Kazmir. Everts is touted for a terrific curveball and excellent velocity, though his fastball can be a little straight. He didn't quite set the world on fire this year, though. His 54 innings in the New York-Penn League were unspectacular as were his 26 innings in Savannah. He has good raw material and I think he'll do much better next year, but I can't help but wonder if the Expos wish they hadn't selected his old high-school teammate instead.

The 2003 first-rounder, Chad Cordero, was viewed by many as a signability pick for an organization that can't afford to dole out big bonus money for guys who spend five years in the minors. That may all be true, but Cordero certainly paid quick dividends by reaching Montreal before the close of 2003. He brings good heat and advanced command of a slider from the bullpen, and should be a fixture in Montreal, San Juan, Northern Virginia or wherever for the next several years.

Seung Song split the season between AA Harrisburg and AAA Edmonton, finding some success in both spots, with his high point being an April no-hitter. His ERA and hits allowed were strong relative to league average, and I suspect he'll be in Montreal's rotation at some point next year. However, his modest K and BB rates lead me to believe he'll find only modest success.

Josh Karp's return to the Eastern League went worse than his first go-round, which isn't a very encouraging sign for the former first-rounder. Most of his key ratios were below average and were, by and large, inferior to his 2002 numbers. Despite having great stuff, I find it hard to be optimistic about him.

On a more positive note, Mike Hinckley pitched well for the second straight season. While giving up a few more hits than you'd like to see from a top prospect, the young lefty posted a K:BB ratio 28% better than the SAL average over 121 innings, and looked great in a brief FSL stint. He improved as the season advanced, so the overall season numbers may understate his progress. Very promising.

Shawn Hill sported a stellar 2.56 ERA in the FSL, and held his own in a AA promotion. The 22-year-old generally features excellent control, but I'm worried that his inability to miss bats (only 66 Ks in 127 innings) does not bode well for upper levels.

about the author

Dan Troy is brings some pretty good heat himself. Instruct him to keep his distance from your snowman at dt@strikethree.com.