Prospecting for Gold:
Babes In Crazyland

Dan Troy

(This is the sixth in a series of organizational reports.)

Baltimore Orioles

When you reside in the same division as the Yankees and Red Sox, you really, really need a deep farm system to have a chance of competing. Toronto and Tampa Bay have enough talent to allow their fans to hope a bit, but Baltimore is a little too thin, particularly in regard to position players. While there is certainly some talent, and they've made big improvements lately, there are precious few prospects that appear to have a chance at being the kind of impact players they need to contend against such stiff competition.

Adam Loewen was considered by some to be the most talented pitcher in the 2002 draft. While the Orioles couldn't ink him before the start of the school year, they did manage to wrap him as a draft-and-follow this spring. The huge lefty is touted for his good velocity and movement on his fastball and has a big, slow curve to buckle the knees of opposing batters. He looked just in a brief stint at Aberdeen before shut down early as a precautionary measure. If he can stay healthy, he has a chance to be a staff ace, but the Orioles have had big problems keeping pitchers healthy

John Maine was Baltimore's sixth-round choice in 2002, and he's proven to be quite a steal so far. He was downright untouchable this year, surrendering just 91 hits in 146 innings. The 22-year-old's strikeout rates were very strong and he posted an awesome strikeout-to-walk ratio of 6-to-1 in the SAL, and nearly 4-to-1 in his stint in the Carolina League. While he could likely get A-ball hitters out with just his fastball, the UNC-Charlotte alum has worked hard on his changeup, and he continues to refine his curveball. He should face a good test in AA.

If the name Matt Riley sounds familiar, that's because he was highly touted a few years ago before being slowed by injuries. He regained a measure of his former status with a fine showing in AA Bowie and AAA Ottawa this year, showing solid control and striking out batters at a rate over 40 percent over league average in both stops. If he can stay healthy, he could reach Baltimore soon.

In the not-too-distant past, John Stephens seemed to be casting himself for a role in Moneyball by retiring minor-leaguer after minor-leaguer with his 85-mph magic. Had he been in the right organization, you can imagine the righteous fury that Michael Lewis would have aimed at scouts who insist on using tools rather than performance to evaluate players. Score one for the scouts, at least so far. Stephens was hammered to a bloody pulp in his 2002 MLB stint, giving up 13 home runs in only 65 innings. While I still think he's a little too hittable to be anything special, he's better than he showed in Baltimore, and may yet enjoy a modest career as swing man/fifth starter.

Other pitchers of note: Kurt Ainsworth and Ryan Hannaman came over from the Giants in the Ponson deal. Ainsworth should recover from a shoulder blade injury and claim a rotation spot in 2004. Hannaman is a talented lefty whose control deserted him this year. If he can regain command of his three solid pitches, he could be a solid starter down the road. I think at worst he'll be a solid reliever.

Erik Bedard was once a fine pitching prospect, but he was derailed by shoulder problems in 2001, and then elbow problems that led to Tommy John surgery in 2002. He returned late in the season to toss a few innings, and will try to reassert his prospect status in 2004. Whether he can do that or not seems more like a guessing game than a forecast. Daniel Cabrera is a very large man with a lightning fastball. His full season debut was pretty shaky, but there is some potential here.

Things are thinner on the hitting end of things. Val Majewski may be the best hitter in the system. He was one of the top performers in the SAL, hitting an impressive .303/.383/.553 in 208 at-bats. He walked more than he struck out and clubbed extra-base hits at double the rate of the league average. The 19-year-old outfielder more than held his own in the high-A Carolina League as well.

Mike Fontenot, the ex-LSU standout, improved greatly on his 2002 campaign by batting .325 in AA Bowie. I'm a little less enthusiastic than some, though, as his plate discipline and power ratios, while not bad, are not truly stellar. I tend to be cautious about minor leaguers whose success is wrapped up too much in their batting average. Let's see if the 23-year-old second baseman can repeat his success in AAA before we get carried away.

Now, Woody Cliffords is a man who knows how to take a walk! He took 77 of them in 440 ABs in Frederick this year, and showed just enough power to stay on the radar screen. He'll probably need to develop more power to be considered anything other than a fourth outfielder, though.

First-round pick Nick Markakis was considered by most teams to be more of a pitching prospect, but the O's signed him as an outfielder. The early returns look very positive, though. He showed good plate discipline against older pitchers in his pro debut in Aberdeen, drawing 30 walks in only 208 at-bats. He also hit enough doubles to lead one to hope that good power may be on the way.

Other hitters to know: Darnell McDonald's season ended early due to a shoulder injury, but by finally translating his tools into baseball skills, he appears ready to claim a bench role on a MLB roster. Tim Raines has enough on-base ability and speed to be an asset as a fourth outfielder.

Mike Huggins had a nice year, posting a .293/.367/.449 line in Frederick. He'll need to hit with big power, though, to make it as a first baseman. Gary Cates posted a fine batting average in Frederick, and did a good job making contact. He's probably a longshot, though, unless he can develop good defensive skills at third.

about the author

Dan Troy was once given his team's "25th-man award" for his skill at keeping the bench area tidy. Ask for batting helmet organization tips at dt@strikethree.com.

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