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NL June Rookie Round-Up

Jason Michael Barker

The National League rookies continue to struggle, as most rookies are wont to do. As a group the crop of first basemen has yet to perform up to expectations, while our two hurlers are suffering from "small sample size." Newcomer (four starts) Carl Pavano has been the lone bright spot, pitching well since his May 22 callup.

Carl Pavano, Montreal
G	GS	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	W	L	ERA
4	4	0	0	24.2	18	13	10	3	5	19	1	0	3.65

Carl Pavano has arrived, and thus far the results have been very good. Especially encouraging are his strikeout to walk ratio (19:5), and a WHIP (Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched) of less than one. Pavano's calling card in the minors was his control, and it appears than he's brought it with him to the majors - 5 walks in 24.1 innings is a Maddux-like number.

But before you get carried away with his numbers, it's important to consider which teams he's faced. Of his four starts, two have been very good, and they both came against the Phillies. His other two starts, against the Braves and Yankees, haven't been so good. Then again, who has pitched well against the two best teams in baseball? Pavano's the real deal, and could make a push for NL Rookie of the Year.

Travis Lee, Arizona
G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	Avg.	OBP	SLG
64	247	31	64	10	1	11	34	29	65	.259	.336	.441

Lee really struggled in May, striking out 31 times (with only 8 walks) while hitting just .231 in 104 at-bats. He's turned it around a little in June, having already drawn 9 walks in 11 games. Lee's biggest problem this season has been his plate discipline, the bane of nearly all young hitters. He's drawn a respectable 30 walks, but is striking out at the incredible rate of one K per game.

What's puzzling about all of this is that Lee did his best hitting early in the season, when he was hitting cleanup. Thanks to 21 walks in 118 at-bats, he had a .386 OBP when batting fourth. Then inexplicably, he was moved up to third in the order, where he's had serious problems at the plate. A .224 batting average and a .280 OBP just won't get the job done in the majors, unless your name is Rey Ordonez.

Todd Helton, Colorado
G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	Avg.	OBP	SLG
61	205	28	56	14	1	8	29	24	20	.351	.468	.273

Unlike Travis Lee, who arrived in the majors with a huge contract and high expectations placed upon him, Todd Helton was a relative unknown entering this season. However, he found himself in a difficult spot. If he failed to produce, the fans would be calling for Andres Galarraga, and yet even if he did put up big numbers, the media would call them the product of park effects.

Despite the pressure placed upon him, Helton has been solid this season. He's shown a tremendous eye at the plate, walking more than he's struck out. His .351 OBP is a good number for a player his age (24), and he's shown decent power. Just in case you're planning to attribute his success to Coors Field, 5 of his 8 homers have come on the road, and his plate discipline has nothing to do with park effects. Batting sixth has helped to alleviate some of the pressure often placed on young players thrust into a starting role.

Dennis Reyes, Los Angeles
G	GS	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	W	L	ERA
6	0	0	0	10.1	10	6	5	0	9	16	0	1	4.35

After dominating the Pacific Coast League as a starter (1.44 ERA, 58 Ks, 31 hits in 43.2 innings), Reyes got the callup on May 15th, and has appeared exclusively in relief. His numbers would be much better if not for a lone poor outing against the Reds, in which he allowed 4 runs in 3 innings. For the most part, Reyes has pitched very well this season, especially in a role he's unaccustomed to.

Like his idol and lookalike Fernando Valenzuela, Reyes is a power pitcher, as evidenced by his 19 strikeouts in just 10.1 innings. The bad news is that he's also walked 6 batters, not a good K:BB ratio. While opponents are hitting just .250 against him, those 6 walks translate to a .380 OBP against, a very high number.

Reyes is going to be a very good pitcher some day, but he'd be much better off with a stable role instead of being jerked back and forth between the minors, the bullpen, and the rotation.

Paul Konerko, Los Angeles
G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	Avg.	OBP	SLG
30	87	6	18	1	0	2	10	6	19	.207	.271	.287

It has certainly been an up and down season thus far for the 1997 Minor League Player of the Year. Konerko began the year as LA's starting 1B, struggled mightily at the plate, was sent to the minors when Eric Karros returned from the DL, dominated the PCL, and finally was brought back to the bigs on May 22. Early in his career, the questions were always about his glove, not his bat, but so far it's his bat that's been the disappointment. Until this month, that is.

Konerko's hitting .316 since June 6, with 2 home runs and 8 RBI. For the month, he's slugging a robust .684, with all of his extra-base hits for the year. But unless he learns to draw a walk, he's not going to help the Dodgers. His current rate of one walk every 15 at-bats just isn't going to get the job done, unless he dramatically improves his power numbers to compensate.

Derrek Lee, Florida
G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	Avg.	OBP	SLG
55	160	22	34	8	0	7	26	20	44	.200	.301	.381

What went wrong? A month ago, Lee was a low-average, decent OBP slugger with tremendous power and a good eye at the plate. That slugger has since been replaced with a poor excuse for a major league hitter, whose number one skill, hitting for power, is all but a memory. Lee hasn't homered since May 10, and hasn't walked since May 24 despite being in the lineup almost every game. He has only 7 hits in his last 20 games, batting .125 over the same span.

That his performance has dropped off so suddenly came as quite a surprise, at least to this writer. But given his age (22) and his size (6'5"), there's still hope for Lee, who has all year to work things out without the threat of being benched. I still like him a great deal, although he certainly has some things to work on.

Bonus Coverage

In last week's AL Rookie Round-Up, it was reported that Anaheim C Todd Greene was building up strength in his injured shoulder so he could return to the bigs. Unfortunately for the Angels, that doesn't appear to be happening. The shoulder isn't responding well to rehabilitation, to the point where he may never be able to catch again. Greene will spend the remainder of 1998 either trying to heal his shoulder or learning a new position, most likely first base or the outfield. The Angels would love to have his bat this season, but 1999 seems like a more realistic goal.

Jason Michael Barker once heard a rumor that contrary to popular belief, you do not in fact "like Ike." He'll also swear that nobody said McDonald's if you ask him about it at jmb@strikethree.com.