Fog versus Sunshine

In the land known as California, we have two teams battling head to head for the National League West division title, and neither of them is the Los Angeles Dodgers. From the chilly north, it's the San Francisco Giants, and from the sunny, warm south, the San Diego Padres.

Going into June 12, the teams were tied atop the division, on the verge of playing a three-game series in San Diego. Three days later, the Padres had swept all three to take a three game lead. How do things look the rest of the way?

Here's a head-to-head offensive comparison:

Giants				Padres
Pos	Name	BA	OPS	Pos	Name	BA	OPS	Edge
C	Johnson	.250	.781	C	Hernandez	.255	.646	Giants
1B	Snow	.207	.604	1B	Joyner	.309	.832	Padres
2B	Kent	.301	.847	2B	Veras	.295	.741	Giants
3B	Mueller	.300	.821	3B	Caminiti	.253	.827	Even
SS	Aurilia	.307	.850	SS	Gomez	.245	.693	Giants
LF	Bonds	.308	1.033	LF	Vaughn	.280	1.007	Giants
CF	Hamilton	.297	.754	CF	Finley	.251	.694	Even
RF	Javier	.234	.635	RF	Gwynn	.346	.906	Padres
	Average	.276	.791		Average	.279	.793	Even

Weak spots for the Giants are first base and all outfielders not called Bonds. J. T. Snow is paying dearly for his way above average year in 97. Let's call it the "Reverse Scott Brosius Effect." Meanwhile, the rest of the Giant infield is very solid. Having Jeff Kent on the DL will hurt, but maybe he'll learn to jump a little on plays at second base. Apart from Bonds, though, the outfield is every bit the offensive black hole I expected. Hamilton and Javier are just awful. Javier in particular is a useful guy to have around as a fourth outfielder, but as a starter he just doesn't cut it.

The Padres are less evenly balanced, with three positions woefully undermanned. Carlos Hernandez is a decent backup catcher, but totally inadequate as a starter. Greg Myers isn't any better, so the catcher slot is a complete waste. Chris Gomez at short is another offensive sinkhole, and the Padres really need to figure out a better option. At one time, I thought Andy Sheets would be an improvement, and even playing every day that might still be the case. The rest of the Padres' infield is solid, and Caminiti could still put up much better numbers if he gets fully healthy (but how many seasons have we been saying that?)

In the outfield, Steve Finley has fallen off quite dramatically. However, there's still the dependable Tony Gwynn and a monster start from Greg Vaughn. Is this the real Greg Vaughn, or will he fall off to normal by the end of the year? One thing I'll guarantee - Barry Bonds will finish with a higher OPS than Vaughn.

Overall, the two teams' offenses come out about even, but I believe there's a little more upside for the Padres, especially with a strategic trade to beef up at catcher or short.

Giants				Padres
Pos	Name	ERA	BRIP *	Pos	Name	ERA	BRIP	Edge
SP	Hershiser	3.19	1.18	SP	Ashby	2.21	1.13	Padres
SP	Rueter	3.73	1.37	SP	Brown	2.74	1.21	Padres
SP	Darwin	4.54	1.47	SP	Hitchcock	3.90	1.37	Padres
SP	Estes	4.73	1.54	SP	Hamilton	5.20	1.59	Giants
SP	Gardner	5.79	1.57	SP	Langston	5.22	1.81	Even
	Average	4.40	1.43		Average	4.27	1.42	Padres
RP	Nen	1.30	0.82	RP	Hoffman	1.63	0.83	Even
RP	Reed	1.45	1.02	RP	Wall	2.67	1.07	Giants
RP	Johnstone	1.66	1.05	RP	Miceli	3.21	1.34	Giants
RP	Tavarez	3.53	1.62	RP	Reyes	3.81	1.00	Padres
	Average	1.99	1.13		Average	2.83	1.06	Giants

On the pitching front, this year each team brought in a veteran starter to add to a promising core. For the Giants, Orel Hershiser has to be outperforming all expectations. He really has been excellent. Apart from Hershiser, and perhaps Rueter, the Giants rotation is pretty ho-hum, though. Estes hasn't been able to maintain his performance from last year, mostly due to an inability to find the plate. If he gets his control solved, he would be very valuable in the second half.

For the Padres, Kevin Brown has almost been his usual excellent self, although he hasn't quite achieved the total dominance the team would like to see. However, some of his competitivness seems to have worn off onto his mates, as Andy Ashby is pitching like a man possessed, finally getting the recognition (and wins) he deserves. Sterling Hitchcock has picked up a little, too, as he fit nicely into the rotation after Langston went down to injury. Joey Hamilton remains something of an enigma, although the solution to his problem seems straightforward - stop walking guys!

Overall, I give the edge for starting pitching to the Padres, mostly on the strength of having two aces, against only one (and an aging one at that) for the Giants. I also don't think we've seen the best of Kevin Brown yet.

Both bullpens are much better than average, and each has a solid closer. Nen and Hoffman haven't allowed much at all, each with 19 saves. Nen has one blown save, while Hoffman has yet to fail. Beyond that, there are very good setup guys on both sides.

Based on depth, I give a slight edge to the Giants on the bullpen, but it isn't much.

As these two continue to battle down the stretch, I expect the race to be tight. An added bonus for these teams is that if they force the best out of each other, the loser could easily win the wild card. Right now, they'll also be competing with the Mets, whose only chance is the wild card, and the Cubs and Astros will be in the hunt, depending on who wins that division.

Stand by, it should be fun.

Stat Glossary

BRIP - Base runners per inning pitched = (H+BB)/IP. As a rough guide, 1.50 is average, 1.20 is very good, and 1.00 is excellent. 2.00 and up is Norm Charlton.

Dave Paisley was buried in ice hundreds of thousands of years ago. We found him, thawed him out, and although the glowing screens and beeping sounds of computers frighten and confuse him, he can make a pretty mean chart. Offer to explain fire at drdjp@strikethree.com.