The Vegas World Series

It may be a little soon to start printing World Series tickets, but the early line says that we have two teams destined for the Fall Classic in a romp. We are, of course, talking Braves and Yankees. Both teams raced away to massive early leads and are showing no signs of slowing down.

With a four-game home-and-away series starting on June 22, I thought we could take a look at the two teams head-to-head to see how they stack up. Despite several players bouncing on and off the DL, I'm going to assume that all the key players are healthy.

First, let's take a look at their hitting:

Yankees				Braves
Pos	Name	BA	OPS	Pos	Name	BA	OPS	Edge
C	Posada	.254	.813	C	Lopez	.287	.885	Braves
1B	Martinez	.298	.923	1B	Galarraga	.316	1.054	Braves
2B	Knoblauch	.274	.790	2B	Lockhart	.286	.770	Yanks
3B	Brosius	.327	.868	3B	Jones	.328	1.012	Braves
SS	Jeter	.329	.894	SS	Weiss	.329	.825	Yanks
LF	Strawberry	.261	.956	LF	Klesko	.262	.815	Yanks
CF	Williams	.353	1.058	CF	Jones	.266	.807	Yanks
RF	O'Neill	.329	.891	RF	Tucker	.275	.852	Yanks
	Average	.303	.899		Average	.294	.878	Yanks

The Braves have a slightly better infield, with Andres Galarraga and Chipper Jones being the offensive stars. Walt Weiss has been a pleasant surprise, as neither he nor Galarraga are showing any signs of slowing down at low altitude. For the Yanks, Tino Martinez is having a good, but not spectacular, year so far. Brosius is a pleasant surprise (at least relative to last year's atrocities) and Jeter continues to develop offensively.

The outfield is a different story. Strawberry, Williams and O'Neill, backed up by Raines and Curtis, are light years ahead of the Braves pedestrian outfield. Klesko's performance is matching last year's sub-par performance, Tucker is playing a bit above his career numbers, and Andruw Jones is far from the offensive superstar he will likely be in the future.

The Yanks' outfield is quite a bit older, of course. Overall, the offensive edge goes to the Yankees, especially after taking the bench players into account.

And now for the pitching staffs:

Yankees				Braves
Pos	Name	ERA	BRIP *	Pos	Name	ERA	BRIP	Edge
SP	Irabu	1.59	1.06	SP	Maddux	1.75	0.88	Braves
SP	Mendoza	4.00	1.17	SP	Glavine	2.37	1.25	Braves
SP	Wells	4.25	1.06	SP	Millwood	4.07	1.21	Even
SP	Pettitte	4.27	1.56	SP	Neagle	3.47	1.22	Braves
SP	Cone	4.97	1.25	SP	Smoltz	3.94	1.44	Yanks
	Average	3.82	1.22		Average	3.46	1.28	Braves
RP	Rivera	0.44	0.54	RP	Ligtenberg	4.22	1.41	Yanks
RP	Lloyd	1.72	0.59	RP	Cather	4.41	1.27	Yanks
RP	Stanton	4.70	1.06	RP	Embree	4.50	1.75	Yanks
RP	Nelson	4.94	1.87	RP	Wohlers	5.63	1.94	Even
	Average	2.95	1.02		Average	4.69	1.59	Yanks

There is surprisingly little difference overall where starting pitching is concerned, especially when the DH effect is added to the mix. The Braves staff is exactly where one would expect - Maddux in a class by himself, with a fabulous supporting cast.

The Yankees, on the other hand, are a strange assortment of surprises. Irabu is something of a shock after last years shambles of an introduction. David Cone was shelled early, but lately looks as unbeatable as ever. Wells has always been a good pitcher, but now he has a perfect game and a very low 1.06 BRIP, while managing to run a fairly high 4+ ERA. Throw in Ramiro Mendoza, pitching very well, and a very off-form Andy Pettitte, and it's a strange, but effective, bunch. As if that weren't enough, the Yanks now can throw in Orlando 'El Duque" Hernandez, sporting a 2-0 record with a 1.13 ERA and .75 BRIP. That probably means that Mendoza heads to the pen. Speaking of which...

Is there a more spectacular looking pen than the Yanks? Mariano Rivera has been spectacular, with his only poor outings coming when he has pitched more than one inning. he's allowed only one walk, six singles and four doubles in over 20 innings pitched. Lloyd has been about as good, except he's actually allowed one home run that really inflated his ERA. Stanton is doing very well again, but Jeff Nelson is a little off.

The Braves pen, though has been their Achilles heel since they have been post-season perennials, and this year is no different. Wohlers has been awful, and none of the alternatives are much better.

So for the pitching, I give a slight edge to the Braves on starters, as they are pitching well and are well proven. The honors for the pen, however, goes in a landslide to the Yankees. In a close game in the late innings, I'd want Rivera on the mound.

Overall, then, I'd take the Yanks in five or six games in a World Series. The upcoming interleague series may not be much of an indication, as the pitching matchups will be determined by the current rotations. There are also some key injuries that tip the balance right now. However, sight unseen, I'll take the Yanks three out of four.

Stat Glossary

BRIP - Base runners per inning pitched = (H+BB)/IP

Dave Paisley is trying to figure out whether David Wells would pitch even better if a buffet was set up beside the mound. Chris Bosio should respond ASAP at drdjp@strikethree.com,.