Chasing Maris

Dave Paisley

OK, OK, enough with the home run hype, you say. But everyone's doing it, and the All-Star Home Run Derby is almost upon us again, so I say what the heck, let's give it another whirl.

Everyone wants to know what the chances are of Griffey or McGwire breaking Roger Maris' record. Heck, even Sammy Sosa gets a mention, now that he's had a really hot month.

Pretenders aside, what are the chances of the two big guns finally putting Maris to rest? I thought I'd see what happens when we put the end of last season together with the beginning of this one to see how things turn out. The chart below tells the story.

Note that both Griffey and McGwire went through a prolonged slump last year, covering most of July. For Griffey, the big issue was the death of his mother-in-law. For McGwire, it was the uncertainty of being traded, and not being sure how far from his son he would end up. Very personal issues, and unlikely to be repeated this year. Once the pain and uncertainty were behind them, they both began to pound out homers much as before.

Even in the unlikely event that each goes through a month-long slump, as they did last year, the numbers still show McGwire ending up with 61 and Griffey with 60. I'd say the odds on neither of them breaking the record this year are slim to none. McGwire's big problem will be, as always, staying healthy enough to play every day. Griffey's is pretty much staying away from outfield walls. However, with neither the Mariners nor the Cards looking like playoff contenders, the race should keep fans interested in both Seattle and St. Louis, as well as wherever the two visit.

As for the rest, if Sammy Sosa keeps this pace up, more power to him, but I don't expect to see him end up much above 50. Alex Rodriguez could easily reach that mark, too, while Vinny Castilla has pretty much tapered off. Not shown here are Andres Galarraga, Chipper Jones, et al, none of whom have the pedigree to keep up with Big Mac and Junior.

Let's face it, the Big Two could reach 50 homers by mid-August, so the race might be to see if either of them can reach 61 within 154 games, erasing the mythical asterisk forever.

We've secretly replaced Dave Paisley's stat books with Peter Gammons columns. Look forward to seeing Dave wax poetic about how Scott Brosius really is that good, and commend him at drdjp@strikethree.com.