Those Yankee Hurlers...

Dave Paisley

In part one, we learned that the Yankees are a very even-hitting team that has no weak spots, and is actually generating more runs than their other offensive numbers would suggest. Today, we'll take a look at their pitching.

Starting Rotation

Coming out of spring training, the Yankees looked to have a pretty decent rotation, but with a few question marks. David Cone's shoulder health was a potential problem, but Andy Pettitte continued to establish himself as an alternate ace to Cone, only younger. David Wells has always been something of a flaky enigma, but looked like a solid number three guy. After that, it looked like Ramiro Mendoza was ready to step into the rotation, and no matter which Hideki Irabu showed up, he'd be no worse than most other teams' fifth starters.

The Yankees were also potentially in the market for Randy Johnson, but the various rumors that had combinations of Pettitte or Mendoza and Mariano Rivera going to Seattle were pure pipe dreams. For whatever reason, the Yankees, despite a rocky first couple of weeks, elected to stand pat. The acquisition of Orlando Hernandez had everyone wondering what they would do with yet another starter if he turned out to be any good. Not everyone expected much at the time, given Irabu's shaky debut the year before.

As it turned out, all of these guys can pitch, and very well at that. The table below shows the Yanks' projected pitching, with my preseason predictions for their ERAs, compared with the actual stats:
 

Rotation
Predicted Rotation	'97 ERA	Predicted '98 ERA	Actual Rotation	Actual '98 ERA	Difference
David Cone	2.82	3.00	David Cone	3.54	+0.54
Andy Pettitte	2.88	3.00	Andy Pettitte	3.54	+0.54
David Wells	4.21	4.00	David Wells	3.57	-0.43
Ramiro Mendoza	4.24	4.50	Ramiro Mendoza	3.47	-1.03
Hideki Irabu	7.09	6.00	Hideki Irabu	3.23	-2.77
			Orlando Hernandez	3.35
Average	3.93	3.89	Average	3.50	-0.39

Due mostly to Irabu turning into a pitcher, the overall starting rotation is almost half a run better than my prediction, and is remarkably consistent. Wells and Cone have been getting all the accolades because of their wins, but when you see that they're receiving about seven runs of support per nine innings, while the rest of the staff is receiving about 5.5, it is more evident that their extra success is more due to luck than anything else. Actually, Pettitte's 13-6 may be more impressive with only 5.5 runs of support than Cone's 15-4 with 7.4 runs.

Meanwhile, Wells has managed to zig and zag with his 6.7 runs of support to get to 13-2. After losing his first start of the season, in his worst three outings of the season so far he has given up five, six and seven runs, ending up with a 1-1 record in those games. He got a no-decision when he gave up the seven runs, a win when he gave up six, and finally a loss for the five-run outing.

Overall, this rotation is having a collective career year, while no one individual stands out from the pack.

Bullpen

As for the New York pen, Rivera and Graeme Lloyd make a formidable pair, and Mendoza, relegated to the pen with the arrival of Hernandez, is another gem. Mendoza is also available for starting duties should the need arise.
 

Bullpen
Predicted Bullpen	'97 ERA	Predicted '98 ERA	Actual Bullpen	Actual '98 ERA	Difference
Mariano Rivera	1.88	2.00	Mariano Rivera	1.31	-0.69
Mike Stanton	2.57	2.50	Mike Stanton	5.59	+3.09
Jeff Nelson	2.86	3.00	Jeff Nelson	4.54	+1.54
Graeme Lloyd	3.31	3.00	Graeme Lloyd	1.90	-1.10
Darren Holmes	5.34	4.00	Darren Holmes	4.05	+0.05
Average	3.19	2.90	Average	3.48	+0.58

Stanton and Nelson have both been far from their former selves. Stanton is prone to the occasional really bad outing, while the hitherto reliable Nelson is now out with back trouble. Same for Holmes, who hasn't been anything special anyway. However, this small problem with middle relief and setup has been the only sore spot. It could turn nasty though, especially as the parade of scrubs that have been brought up have mostly failed to do anything at all.

Overall, a worse bullpen than I predicted, but the good guys are very good, and when the game is on the line, the good guys are the ones getting the call.

Yankee Summary

If this team makes it to a record number of wins, they may be hailed as the best team of all time. I doubt that, for a couple of reasons.

First, nobody on this team is having a real breakout year. Even Bernie Williams is only approaching the kind of year that Ken Griffey has been turning in routinely year after year. As good as he is, Derek Jeter is a pale shadow of Alex Rodriguez. And these are the two guys leading the way. On the pitching side, everyone is good, but there is nobody in the league of a Greg Maddux or Pedro Martinez. Rivera may be the most outstanding performer on the staff, but he's right in there with former stablemate John Wetteland in ERA and saves.

Second, we tend to discount what we see today in favor of the myths of yesterday. Offense today is too high, expansion has watered down the pitching, yada, yada, yada.

So this may not be hailed as the best of all time, but it might well go down as the best collection of solidly above average talent ever assembled. Kind of a mouthful really.

Dave Paisley is spending the weekend in the wilds of the San Juan Islands in a desperate search for Pete Incaviglia. Beg him to give it up at drdjp@strikethree.com.