See pitch. Hit pitch in air.

Jason Michael Barker

In an effort to enlighten more people to the wonder of baseball statistics, I'd like to take a look at two of the more obscure measures -- number of pitches per plate appearance (P/PA) and ground ball to fly ball ratio (G:F). As we'll see, these two stats are fairly good predictors of more "regular" measures, such as on-base percentage (OBP) and its cousin, on-base plus slugging (OPS).

Player	Team	P/PA	Walks	OBP	OPS
Rickey Henderson	OAK	4.3	118	.376	.723
Ray Lankford	STL	4.2	86	.391	.932
Frank Thomas	CHA	4.1	110	.381	.861
Edgar Martinez	SEA	4.1	106	.429	.995
Scott Rolen	PHI	4.1	93	.391	.923
Jim Thome	CLE	4.1	89	.413	.997
Jose Offerman	KC	4.1	89	.403	.841
Mark McLemore	TEX	4.1	89	.369	.686
Rusty Greer	TEX	4.1	80	.386	.841
Chuch Knoblauch	NYY	4.1	76	.361	.765
Carlos Delgado	TOR	4.1	73	.385	.978
Edgardo Alfonzo	NYM	4.1	65	.355	.782

The major leagues were home to 13 players who saw more than four pitches per plate appearance in 1998, led by the King of Taking Pitches (tm), Rickey Henderson. In all, there were 27 players who saw four or more pitches per plate appearance, but for our purposes 27 players would make for an unruly chart. You could assemble a pretty good team from this group, although it's a tad heavy on infielders. Still, Henderson, Rusty Greer and Ray Lankford isn't a bad outfield.

It makes sense that players who draw more walks will have seen more pitches during the season, and it also follows that players who walk will have higher OBPs than those who do not. For the most part, the chart shows this: nine of the 13 players posted an OBP over .375. The notable exceptions are Edgardo Alfonzo and Chuck Knoblauch, whose OBPs are more a function of low batting averages than a lack of plate discipline.

The players on this list also tend to hit for decent power, although there are more exceptions here than in the OBP example. Still, Lankford, Frank Thomas, Edgar Martinez, Scott Rolen, Jim Thome, and Carlos Delgado are all good to great power hitters, and only four of the 13 players listed failed to post an OPS above .840.

Overall, players who are more patient at the plate see more pitches, draw more walks, and get on base at a better rate than those who do not. This also translates to increased power, as hitters who are more selective are more likely to see a pitch they can drive. This is exactly why the Oakland Athletics stress plate discipline to their young hitters coming up through the minors.

The hitters at the bottom of the P/PA list in 1998? Rey Ordonez (3.0), Vinny Castilla (3.1), Mike Caruso (3.2), and Gary DiSarcina (3.2).

Player	Team	G:F	OPS
Ricky Gutierrez	HOU	2.85	.671
Tom Goodwin	TEX	2.73	.716
Hal Morris	KC	2.72	.731
Darren Lewis	BOS	2.48	.714
Derek Jeter	NYY	2.46	.864
Darryl Hamilton	COL	2.28	.799
Edgar Renteria	FLA	2.17	.689
Quilvio Veras	SD	2.13	.729
Brian Hunter	DET	2.08	.631
Ben Grieve	OAK	2.08	.844
Reggie Sanders	CIN	2.03	.764
Gary DiSarcina	ANA	2.03	.706
Jose Guillen	PIT	2.02	.712

Before putting these numbers together, it seemed obvious that a high P/PA would be a good thing for hitters. However, ground ball to fly ball ratio might not be so clear. As it turns out, and as you can see from the chart above, for the most part ground ball hitters are not good hitters. This list (players with a 2:1 ratio or higher in 1998) includes such offensive powerhouses as Ricky Gutierrez, Brian Hunter, and the aforementioned DiSarcina.

The notable exceptions are Derek Jeter and Ben Grieve, two very productive offensive players.

By contrast, the players at the bottom of the G:F list in 1998 include Mark McGwire (.52), Barry Bonds (.63), Frank Thomas (.69) and Rafael Palmeiro (.71).

What, if any, conclusions can be drawn from these two obscure statistics? While neither number is a perfect correlate for offensive production, the data certainly suggests that patient hitters, and hitters who hit more fly balls, are better players than impatient hacks who pound the ball into the ground.

about the author

Jason Michael Barker was reportedly a leading candidate for the Los Angeles Dodgers' managerial job until the FOX people heard that he doesn't care for "King of the Hill." If the WB network owned a team, they'd be the first to receive a resume from jmb@strikethree.com.