National League Rookie Roundup

Jason Michael Barker

Welcome back to the Roundup, where today we'll take a look at the top youngsters in the National League. As fate would have it, a certain young pitcher made his big-league debut Tuesday night for the Florida Marlins, and pitched quite well considering he was making the jump from AA Portland. A.J. Burnett, 22 years old and coming off a fabulous season at low-A ball last year, allowed five hits and one run in 5.2 innings, walking two and striking out four.

It puzzles me why a team would want to bring up its best pitching prospect for a lone start in August (they needed one start to get their rotation back on schedule) only to send him back down, but Burnett is a player to watch in the future.

And now (drumroll please), the Roundup.

Ronnie Belliard, 2B, Brewers
Age	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
24	82	298	42	85	15	3	5	35	47	38	3	3	.285	.382	.406

I'll bet the Brewers are really upset that Fernando Viña has only played 37 games this season. I said at the start of the season that Belliard was already better than Viña, and so far he certainly has been. I also said I couldn't decide which young second baseman I liked better, Belliard or Carlos Febles of the Royals. One thing seemed clear, however: Belliard was a bit more of a power hitter, while Febles was better at getting on base.

So far that trend has been reversed. Belliard isn't hitting for much power, but is drawing walks at a fabulous rate and has a good on-base percentage to show for it. In fact, he's walked nine more times than he's struck out, showing very good plate discipline. He slugged .503 last season at AAA with 57 extra base hits, so hopefully the power will come in time.

J.D. Drew, CF, Cardinals
Age	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
23	66	234	48	62	12	5	11	29	30	51	13	2	.265	.356	.500

Yes, he's been a disappointment (I saw one projection that said he'd hit .420/.580), but he certainly shouldn't be on the bench or in the minors. Injuries have hampered his play this season, but there's nothing wrong with his .356/.500 OBP/SLG or 13 steals in 15 attempts -- basically, if he were any other player besides who he is, we'd be talking about how great a season he's having. I expect a huge season from Drew in 2000.

Warren Morris, 2B, Pirates
Age	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
25	110	385	52	118	18	1	13	62	46	61	3	4	.306	.378	.460

You might recall Morris from his college days, when he won the College World Series with a home run. The trade of Tony Womack left the door open for the former college star, who has been far more productive at the plate than Womack will ever be. Morris is hitting for average, hitting for power, and drawing walks -- in other words, the total package with the bat.

Heading into this season there was some concern about his glove, but as long as he hits like this, who cares? Not than the concern was warranted, since he's only made eight errors all year and is on pace to turn well over 100 double plays.

Preston Wilson, CF, Marlins
Age	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
24	108	340	48	97	17	4	20	58	27	104	6	2	.285	.342	.535

Despite a ton of hype, most statheads have ignored Wilson because his strike zone judgement in the minors was horrible: he struck out 610 times and walked just 138 times in six years. Last season at AAA, he struck out 143 times and walked 36 times in 112 games. It's time to stop ignoring him, however, because his numbers this year are quite good. Better than Carlos Beltran, for example, who gets all that Rookie of the Year hype in the other league.

To be frank, his strike zone judgement this season has not been very good, as he's struck out about four and a half times more than he's walked. The good news is that because he's drawn 27 walks and his hitting .285, he has an OBP of .342, which is just fine. That in itself doesn't make him a good player, of course, but the fact that he's also slugging well over .500 does. Also keep in mind that he's playing half of his games in a good pitcher's park. I'd vote him second in ROY balloting if I had a vote (read on for #1).

Kris Benson, SP, Pirates
Age	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	W	L	SV	OOBP	WHIP	ERA
24	22	22	139.0	130	80	67	11	61	99	10	9	0	.333	1.37	4.34

Despite walking too many batters, Benson has pitched very well this season. He's survived by allowing less than one hit per frame, and by not giving up very many home runs (just one every 12.2 innings). He's really picked it up of late -- in his six starts since the All-Star break, he's 4-2 with a 3.00 ERA and a .302 on-base percentage against.

Benson was considered something of a disappointment heading into this season, so the Pirates have to be happy with what he's accomplished. He isn't all that young such that he's a huge injury risk (and is averaging just under 100 pitches per start) and most importantly looks like he's figured out what he's doing recently.

Octavio Dotel, SP, Mets
Age	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	W	L	SV	OOBP	WHIP	ERA
25	9	9	51.0	36	32	32	6	30	53	4	1	0	.324	1.29	5.65

I know it's correct, but that line of statistics just doesn't look right to me. To be specific, his ERA looks much to high to go along with his peripheral stats. Dotel is allowing less than a hit an inning, he hasn't given up a ton of home runs, and his WHIP and OBP against are better than Benson's, yet Dotel's ERA is over a run higher. I think the answer lies in inconsistency.

Dotel has started nine games, with mixed results. Four times he's allowed one earned run in seven innings (once it was 7.1 innings), and once he allowed three in seven innings. Those are the good starts, in which he has a 3-0 record and a 1.78 ERA. So when he is good, he is very good. And when he is bad... you can see where this is going.

In four other starts have been horrible -- six runs in 4.1 innings, five in five, nine in two, and five in 4.1. His ERA in those starts? A robust 14.36, which earns an "ouch." The moral? Young pitchers are inconsistent, and Dotel is yet another piece of supporting evidence.

Scott Williamson, RP, Reds
Age	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	W	L	SV	OOBP	WHIP	ERA
23	50	0	76.2	41	19	15	7	27	89	11	5	16	.243	.887	1.76

Earlier I said I'd vote Preston Wilson second in ROY voting, without mentioning who would be tops on the list. The answer is Williamson, who has been nothing short of dominant in Cincy's pen this season. What intrigues me about him is that he hasn't simply been used as the typical "ninth inning with less than a four-run lead" closer. Reds manager Jack McKeon isn't afraid to use Williamson when the game's on the line, whether that's the sixth or the ninth. He also isn't afraid to use him for more than one inning, as Williamson has pitched as many as four innings in a single appearance this season.

Would he be better off in the starting rotation? Williamson was a starter his entire minor league career, but he's never had this sort of success before. Personally, I think he's being used correctly, and the Reds are getting a good deal more out of him than they would if here were simply used in the classic closer role. He might be better off starting in a year or two, but this is an excellent way to break him in to the majors (similar to Scott Elarton in Houston).

about the author

Jason Michael Barker made it to the $100K level on "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire," but lost it all when he pummeled Regis Philbin for asking five consecutive times if that was his final answer. Tell him that Chad Curtis only made it to $300 before doing the same at jmb@strikethree.com.