D-Back D-Light

Jason Michael Barker

I feel I owe the Arizona Diamondbacks a little something. Ahem, that's the National League West Division Champion Arizona Diamondbacks.

Respect? Perhaps. Recognition? Absolutely. I've basically ignored the D-Backs all season, mostly because I didn't believe that had what it takes to win a division. Even when they got off to a great start, I pretended not to notice, waiting for the inevitable collapse.

It all started this off-season, when the Dodgers made "all the right moves" to win the NL West, including hiring manager Davey Johnson and signing ace pitcher Kevin Brown. There were a few people (columnists and such) who picked Arizona to win the wild card, and a few who picked them to win the West. To me, this was roughly akin to all the "experts" who thought the 1998 Baltimore Orioles were going to be the greatest team of all time.

What did the D-Backs have, really? Most people pointed to the starting rotation of Randy Johnson, Todd Stottlemyre, Omar Daal, Andy Benes and Armando Reynoso as the team's major strength. Still, there were questions: Could Johnson stay healthy? Was Daal's 1998 season a fluke? Would Benes bounce back from a mildly disappointing year? Could Reynoso pitch 100 innings, as he hadn't in three years?

Even if you were a big believer in Arizona's pitching staff, you had to have concerns about their offense. At third, Matt Williams was coming off a couple of very bad seasons. Second sacker Jay Bell had a decent 1998, but at age 34 looked to be on the way down. The entirely new outfield -- Luis Gonzalez, Steve Finley and Tony Womack -- wasn't exactly a force to be reckoned with. Only 1B Travis Lee seemed a good bet to improve (way off on that last one, eh?).

So basically, sure the pitching would be good, but how were they supposed to score any runs?

Through Friday's games, the Diamondbacks had scored 858 runs, or 5.57 runs per game. Those 858 runs were good enough for second in the National League, behind only the Colorado Rockies. Not that the comparison is a fair one -- Colorado plays in the greatest hitter's park of all time, while Arizona's Bank One Ballpark was basically neutral in its inaugural season.

In a word, "huh?"

The answer is career or near-career seasons by Arizona's big four hitters: Jay Bell, Steve Finley, Luis Gonzalez and Matt Williams. Heading into this season, each had a career OPS (on-base plus slugging) between around .750 and .800 -- in other words, not all that great. This season, all four have posted an OPS at least ten percent above their career number. Here's an illustrative chart:

Player	Career OPS	1999 OPS	+/- Pct.		1998 OPS	1999 OPS	+/- Pct.
Jay Bell	.746	.913	+22.4%		.785	.913	+16.3%
Steve Finley	.748	.853	+14.0%		.702	.853	+21.5%
Luis Gonzalez	.773	.954	+23.4%		.815	.954	+17.1%
Matt Williams	.804	.892	+10.9%		.766	.892	+16.4%

You'll also notice that each player is having a better year than last year, in some cases dramatically so. While we might have predicted that for Finley, who was absolutely horrendous last season and really couldn't have gotten any worse, the other three are all on the wrong side of 30 and should be on the decline.

I don't really know how to explain it, but there it is. This reminds me somewhat of the 1995 Seattle Mariners, who were not quite as old as the D-Backs but got career performances from players such as Edgar Martinez, Mike Blowers, Joey Cora, Tino Martinez, and Jay Buhner, not to mention a tall quirky hurler named Randy Johnson.

Speaking of pitching, Johnson has also been key to the D-Backs' success. You can't really tell by his 15-9 won-loss record, but any time you have a pitcher who throws 11 complete games and over 250 innings, it's a big relief for the bullpen. An available, well-rested bullpen means the other starters don't have to pitch as many innings, and will in turn stay more effective all season long.

Back to the D-Back offense. What do all these career years mean? The first thing that comes to mind is that Arizona shouldn't expect a repeat next season. All too often an aging team gets good performances from veterans but fails to replace them before they fall off The Cliff (tm), leading to a mediocre, over-the-hill squad the next season.

That shouldn't be a concern yet, however. Up next for the Diamondbacks: the postseason. Last season I jumped on the Houston Astros' playoff bandwagon, primarily because of Randy Johnson. I'm not ready to pencil Arizona in as my World Series pick quite yet, but anytime you have Johnson pitching twice in a five-game series you've got a good chance to win.

In terms of matchups, it will become quite clear which team the D-Backs would like to play in the playoffs, and which team they most certainly would not. Read on...the answers may surprise you.

Arizona was 7-2 against the Mets this season, including a three-game sweep at Shea Stadium in late May. They went 5-4 against Houston and 4-5 against Atlanta, meaning their big nemesis is... the Cincinnati Reds, against whom they won just one game of nine.

If you're wondering which NL team I am picking to make the Series at this point, I'd have to go with Atlanta. As always, they've got the pitching and are as hot as any non-Baltimore team in baseball. Things change, of course, so be sure to check back in a week or so.

about the author

Jason Michael Barker can't believe Tim McCarver. That's it -- he just can't believe Tim McCarver. Discuss at jmb@strikethree.com.