Honor Roll

Dave Paisley

Well, we're half way to knowing the lucky winners of the post-season hardware, with the best yet to come. Rookie of the Year and Manager of the Year, while nice enough, are something of a crapshoot, and rarely cause much water cooler discussion. The MVP and Cy Young awards, to be announced next week, are sure to generate a little more heated debate.

Of course, we can already guess who's going to win, based on the fact that the same guys who voted are the guys who've been writing all that guff in your newspaper the last two months. They've had plenty of opportunities to subtly bias your thinking to conform to the way they voted. Just another BBWAA plot, don't worry.

But before we get into that, does anyone else find it ironic that the Dodgers are getting nailed for ethical breaches made during the sainted O'Malley years? There's no way anyone can pin this on Rupert Murdoch or the evil Fox Empire, yet how much do we hear about that? That's right, nothing. Just another curious feature of the baseball old boys' network.

But back to the silverware. Of course, a lot of water has flowed under the bridge (or, in the case of NY, raw sewage) since the votes were cast. That means that the perceptions of who the winners should be now, versus perceptions at the end of the regular season are quite different. For instance, at the end of season, Manny Ramirez was an RBI hero. Within a week he was a clutch-hitting dud. Same with Jeff Bagwell, and let's not even talk about the Texas power failure. But none of that post-season failure counts.

A couple of weeks before the end of the season, I analyzed the major races and came up with some likely winners. Let's see if much has changed since then.

MVP Awards (see previous article)

AL MVP
Based on the traditional measures of RBI and home runs, Derek Jeter and Nomar Garciaparra wouldn't normally stand much of a chance, and they really weren't getting much attention in mid-September. However, as the post-season beckoned, both of them got lots of publicity as the regular season wound down, making their chances of winning that much greater.

The RBI and home run guys who normally win the award are Manny Ramirez and Rafael Palmeiro, and I fully expect those two to top the list, with Ramirez winning. The two shortstops, though could well sneak in and make a game of it, though, especially Jeter. Slowly, the BBWAA voters are realizing there's something about playing a difficult position like shortstop and having a vastly superior on base percentage that more than makes up for a lack of homers and RBI. Throw in the New York hype machine and you may have a winner in DJ.

Pedro Martinez could and should get some votes here, but I doubt it will be enough to crack the top three.

My predicted order: Ramirez, Jeter, Palmeiro, Garciaparra, Martinez

If either of the first two guys get the award, I'll be happy. If Rafael "gold glove for three appearances" Palmeiro wins, I'll be kinda ticked.

NL MVP
This will be interesting, as the front runner in all the media coverage has been Chipper Jones. Based on the traditional slugging criteria, Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire should be right up there, but once again, they suffered from crappy team syndrome, so let's consign them to also-ran status.

Chipper was a mere 17th in RBI (110), third in home runs (45) and had a very respectable .320 average. More to the point, he hit for a 1.074 season OPS (On base Plus Slugging), with a very strong 1.120 OPS in September to finish. He was also the only skill position player to crack a 1.000 season OPS.

The primary challengers are Jeff Bagwell and Matt Williams. Bagwell is a legitimate threat, but he didn't shine as much in September as Jones did. He finished with a season 1.045 OPS, but managed "just" .959 in September.

Williams will get some serious consideration as the front-runner of the surprising Diamondbacks and the 142 second place RBIs. However, with just a .880 OPS, he really shouldn't be a major candidate.

My predicted order: Jones, Bagwell, Williams, McGwire, Sosa

For once, the boys at the BBWAA are likely to get it right, as Jones is a worthy winner.

Cy Young Awards (see previous article)

AL CY
As I mentioned in my previous article, there's no question here. Pedro Martinez (23-4 record, 2.07 ERA) wins. The competition is less than fierce. Major competitors for the runners-up slots are Bartolo Colon (18-5, 3.95), David Cone (12-9, 3.44), Mike Mussina (18-7, 3.50), Aaron Sele (18-9, 4.75) and Orlando Hernandez (17-9, 4.12). Don't be shocked if there are a few votes for Mariner rookie Freddy Garcia (17-8, 4.07.)

Of those, Colon's ERA is a little high, Cone couldn't get wins, Mussina played on a pretty lousy team and Sele's ERA is stratospheric and he got monstrous run support. Garcia's numbers actually look pretty reasonable by comparison, but being a rookie, he won't get much consideration.

My predicted order: Martinez, Colon, Mussina, Cone, Hernandez

NL CY
The big question mark in the NL CY race is, "just how much do wins count?"

If winning 20 games isn't the be all and end all of Cy Young voting, Randy Johnson (17-9 record, 2.48 ERA) wins hands down. If winning 20 games is an absolute criterion, then Mike Hampton (22-4, 2.90) will win. For BBWAA voters, Hampton's four losses are a real temptation. After all 22-4 is way better than 17-9. Ask them which is the better pitcher, though, and I'm sure they'd take Johnson.

I expect this to be a close race, with the BBWAA sticking with tradition, i.e. wins, and thereby also sticking it to Johnson.

Also rans in this race are Hampton teammate Jose Lima (21-10, 3.58), Kevin Millwood (18-7, 2.68), Greg Maddux (19-9, 3.57) and Kevin Brown 18-9, 3.00).

My predicted order: Hampton, Johnson, Millwood, Lima, Brown

Now all we have to do is wait for the chickens to come home to roost.

about the author

Dave Paisley still cherishes his intra-mural softball MVP award from Montreal way back when. Send him polishing suggestions at drdjp@strikethree.com