Senility Rules

Dave Paisley

Just when you thought it was safe to start giving the Baseball Writers Association of America some credit for learning the merits of stats other than RBI, home runs and batting average, they manage to screw up in a completely different direction.

This year, the awards were cruising along quite well until the very last one: AL MVP. Not that I fully agreed with every recipient up to that point, but I could at least see some merit in each argument. Not this time, though.

One curious aspect of the BBWAA voters is a certain "flavor of the month" quality to their voting. In the NL MVP, for instance, Sosa and McGwire were complete also-rans, garnering a handful of votes each, whereas last year they finished one-two, despite McGwire's team finishing out of the playoffs. This year they had the same kind of season, but oh, that's old news now.

Perhaps it's inevitable given their Short Attention Span Theater newspaper background. Last week's news is always stale, no matter how sensational.

Normally, the MVP award comes down to four factors: home runs, RBI, batting average and whether a player's team made the playoffs. If there is no standout candidate from those criteria, then the voters look for either a player who didn't make the playoffs or, in exceptional cases, a pitcher who had a truly outstanding year.

Here's a table of AL leaders who would normally receive strong consideration, given the usual criteria. The AVG points, HR points and RBI points are my way of apportioning value for those categories based on the leader in each category. There's a maximum of 100 for BA, and 200 each for HR and RBI. First place votes are those received in the official AL MVP voting. I've included OPS (On-base percentage Plus Slugging average) to give you a feel for the raw offensive power generated by these guys.

Name	Team	OPS	AVG	R	HR	RBI	AVG pts	HR pts	RBI pts	Total	1st Place Votes
Manny Ramirez	Cle	1.105	.333	131	44	165	93	187	200	481	4
Rafael Palmeiro	Tex	1.050	.324	96	47	148	91	200	179	470	4
Juan Gonzalez	Tex	.979	.326	114	39	128	91	166	155	412	0
Ivan Rodriguez	Tex	.914	.332	116	35	113	93	149	137	379	7
Bernie Williams	NY	.971	.342	116	25	115	96	106	139	342	0
Nomar Garciaparra	Bos	1.021	.357	103	27	104	100	115	126	341	0
Roberto Alomar	Cle	.955	.323	138	24	120	90	102	145	338	4
Harold Baines	Cle	.920	.312	103	27	104	87	115	126	328	0
Derek Jeter	NY	.990	.349	134	24	102	98	102	124	324	1
Pedro Martinez	Bos	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	8

This year there were a couple of outstanding offensive candidates, but for some reason, the BBWAA decided they didn't like them. Even if you didn't like Ramirez or Palmeiro, there was Pedro Martinez. Pedro truly turned in a season for the ages, but there are some BBWAA voters who still believe that a starting pitcher shouldn't be allowed into the MVP voting because "they only pitch once a week." What a crock! It looks like it's time to bury that hoary old myth one more time.

So this year it seems there was no consensus vote, evident by the fact that six players got first place votes. This resulted in a hodge-podge crapshoot for the winner, although the media is treating Pudge's win as some kind of intentional consensus, rather than a lottery winner.

Here's a rundown of the guys in the table (i.e.the usual suspects for MVP based on the "traditional" criteria.)

Ivan Rodriguez (252 points)
Rodriguez seems to have gained a lot of attention from the fact that he stole 25 bases and was only caught 12 times, while throwing out 41 would-be stealers and allowing only 34. Well, big deal. The running game is vastly overrated, and the BBWAA isn't doing anything to kill that myth. You can also see that Rodriguez is way off the lead in the traditional categories, and there's no way his being a catcher makes up that kind of difference.

From the table you can see that Pudge's offense, judged by OPS, is the lowest of the major candidates, despite the fact that he plays in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the AL (not that Jacobs Field helped the Indians' candidates).

Pedro Martinez (239)
The age-old question applies here -- should pitchers be eligible for the MVP? My thinking years ago started out from the position that they shouldn't be, but is now firmly at the opposite end of the scale. You only have to ask yourself, "Who would I pick first to build a team around?" That first pick would overwhelmingly be Martinez right now, at least in the AL.

Roberto Alomar (226)
Another excellent candidate, but outshone by most of the rest of this company. Given teammate Ramirez' feats, it's a surprise to me that Alomar finished as high as he did. It may well be that this year was the year of the all-around player, and that defense (or at least perceived defense) actually counted.

Manny Ramirez (226)
Ramirez leads the traditionally used BBWAA categories, plus he led the league in OPS -- a genuinely impressive feat for a young player coming into the prime of his career. Combine great personal offense with a bunch of guys who can get on base ahead of you, and you get great traditional numbers. 165 RBI -- the most since Private Ryan got saved? Normally that would impress the BBWAA, but Manny apparently isn't controversial enough or have enough charisma to beat out a 25-steal catcher.

Rafael Palmeiro (193)
Had a nice little personal revitalization. Great numbers, challenged Griffey for the home run crown, and outperformed all of his teammates offensively. However, he was a DH for most of the year, which has to count against him. And presumably that Gold Glove award was for keeping the Gatorade bucket filled and the paper cups well stocked...

Derek Jeter (177)
If you're looking for someone doing a stellar job at a true defensive position, but who still hits better than Pudge, here's one of your men. I thought Jeter might make more of a dent in the voting this year, but apparently he, Alomar and Nomar split the middle infield defensive vote.

Nomar Garciaparra (137)
A shortstop with an OPS over 1.000? Nomar had a truly excellent season despite some time out with injuries. Why he didn't garner more votes I don't understand, but one possible explanation is that both he and Jeter suffered from "last year's news" syndrome. Or maybe it's that whole "snap, snap, velcro, velcro, tap, kick, tap, kick, tap, kick" routine that ticks people off.

Bernie Williams (21)
Much overlooked, and will continue to be so unless his home run totals start to climb. Much of his value comes in the form of on-base percentage - a feature of baseball everyone but the Yankees seems to overlook.

Juan Gonzalez (10)
Last month's news. Having handed two MVP awards to Gonzalez the past three years (and taken some heat for it), there was no way he'd get a third, at least not so soon. Besides, in the slugging department he was outdone by Palmeiro.

Harold Baines (0)
I include Harold just to show you a guy who makes the leader board in the usual categories, but who gets no mention at all in the voting. With two flashier teammates who both play defense, why would anyone vote for Harold?

So the BBWAA does it once again. Never again will I be fooled into thinking they've wised up. Whichever way you look at it, either Manny Ramirez or Pedro Martinez was robbed.

about the author

Dave Paisley has mounted a one-man campaign to have freshly-made donuts sold in the stands at this country's ballparks. Suggest that hot-oil personal-injury insurance costs might be a sticking point at drdjp@strikethree.com.